Similar to NBA DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
When injury news comes out, the lines surrounding that player will remain the same for a few minutes. The best picks are the ones that come from that player’s game as these lines are likely to be too low or too high depending on which way the news breaks. These are removed quickly so it is important to stay on top of the news to get the best value picks.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines will change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our NBA Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks NBA Plays for Tonight…
Jan 15, 2022; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Darius Garland (10) celebrates after scoring against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
Josh Hart Under 8rebs
NOP @ BOS
Hart is available at 9.5 on some sites. This might mean that this gets adjusted as we get closer to game time. Even at 8, I like the under. Hart is one of the best rebounders in the league for his size. The Pelicans are playing at a bottom-third pace while the Celtics operate at an even slower pace than them. Though Al Horford is not the most threatening rebounder, the Celtics start him alongside Robert Williams. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are strong rebounders in their own rights. Hart likely has to defend Brown. Herbert Jones should be on Jayson Tatum. This might force Hart away from the basket more than usual. This just is not the best matchup for Hart when it comes to crashing the boards.
Against SGs and SFs, the Celtics allow the 2nd-fewest rebounds to both of those positions this season. Al Horford has some floor stretching ability but he is still a big man while Robert Williams is always going to be around the basket. Jonas Valanciunas should be able to stay home all game allowing him to grab everything that comes his way. The way the rotations line up for these teams, JoVal should be up against Enes Freedom as well. He too is a traditional center. When teams play a stretch five, it causes the other four positions to crash the glass more. With the Celtics playing at a snail’s pace, there will not be as many chances to grab boards for Hart.
Darius Garland Over 19.5pts
CLE vs BKN
Hop on this one as soon as you can. The Nets are going to be without Kevin Durant for a while. They will have Kyrie Irving available for this one as they are in Cleveland. This game has a solid 219.5 total with the Cavs favored by 2.5pts. Even without Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio, the Cavs are one of the best teams in the eastern conference. Garland is the engine to this offense. He leads the team with a 28.1% usage rate. Rajon Rondo is still dealing with a hamstring injury which will force him to miss this game. That means even more ball-handling duties for Garland. After 3 low-scoring outputs, Garland has followed up with 32 and 27pt games. Brooklyn will be another matchup he should capitalize on.
The Nets allow the 4th-most points to the PG position. Brooklyn might have a lot of wings to rotate through and throw at Garland but the stats show that they are not the best at slowing opposing PGs down. This Clevland team relies on Garland a ton. As we all know, they start a big lineup. The other 4 players sharing the court with Garland are not the best at dribbling the ball. In a fairly high-scoring game, I like Garland’s chance of hitting the over at this number. He should be set at above 20pts next game.
Nikola Vucevic Over 18.5pts
CHI @ MEM
It appears that people have forgotten about Vucevic. Everyone looked to DeMar DeRozan and Coby White, but Vucevic had 27pts last game with Zach LaVine out. This performance came against the Celtics, an elite defensive squad. The Bulls will be playing the Grizzlies today with a shorthanded team yet again. Chicago will be without LaVine, Lonzo Ball, Derrick Jones Jr., and Javonte Green. With all these players out last game, Vucevic had a 29.1% usage rate only behind DeRozan. He is the 2nd option now and will be so again today. Chicago only played 90 seconds without one of DeRozan or Vucevic on the court last game. They are going to stagger the mins which allows Vucevic to be the #1 option for parts of the game.
The Grizzlies got Steven Adams back last game, but he came off the bench. He is not going to stop the all-star Vucevic and neither are Brandon Clarke or Jaren Jackson Jr. The Grizzlies are allowing the 7th-most points to opposing centers. With the increased opportunity, Vucevic will have a lot of chances to hit the over. He has kind of had a down year so far but that is expected when there are so many mouths to feed on this team. Now is Vucevic’s chance to show how valuable he is. He is not the flashiest name so this 18.5 number should not move too much if at all.
Ja Morant Over 7asts
MEM vs CHI
Adams’ return should help Morant in the pick and roll game. He is a great screener which opens up the options for Morant. The Bulls are without Ball and Caruso, two of their best perimeter defenders. Just like Vucevic, this game has the 3rd highest total on the slate at 224. There will be a lot of possessions in this one. With Morant leading the charge, he should have plenty of assist opportunities. In addition to just Adams returning, this is a good matchup for bigs. Since JJJ, Clarke, and Adams all rely on Morant to create for them, Morant should pick up plenty of assists. Vucevic is not known for his defense so the Bulls are pretty weak down low.
There are two things to note here. One, Adams could start. This does not affect this play though as I would still like the over at 7 assists. Two, Tyus Jones barely shared the court with Morant last game. There have been moments where the two play significant minutes together. This is something that could change depending on how the game goes. If Jones is playing well, he could close ahead of Zaire Williams. I am not so sure that will happen though as the Grizzlies need some size to guard DeRozan. If Jones continues to basically split mins with Morant, Morant is completely in the driver’s seat when it comes to playmaking.
Just missed the cut: Joel Embiid O28.5pts, Darius Garland O39Fpts, Nikola Vucevic U10.5rebs, Brandon Clarke U27.5Fpts, Trae Young O2.5 3s, Onyeka Okongwu U21.5Fpts
Final NBA PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Pick the best lines available. Take advantage of the news and place entries immediately before the lines are taken off the board and adjusted.
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