NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 1/3/2022

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

C Rudy Gobert $8700

UTA @ NOP

We are back to a big 10 game slate today for the new year. The games are spread out throughout the night which makes it easier to late swap. I stress it a lot but the most recent example is Ty Jerome last week with SGA out at 2% ownership. For the center position, Daniel Gafford figures to be the chalk option at 6k. Anthony Gill who stole Gafford’s closing minutes is now out. Gafford should close most games with Montrezl Harrell still sidelined. It is a smash spot for him playing at home against Charlotte who is on a back-to-back. It is tough to play any center that is not a value or named Nikola Jokic. Gobert is in play if Hassan Whiteside misses this game. If Whiteside is in, I will not have him in my player pool. That does not mean he cannot have a good game. It just is that Gobert receives a few extra minutes when Whiteside is out. They are going to need Gobert to match up against Jonas Valanciunas if he plays.

Gobert is around 10% owned most slates because he has been priced over 9k for a while now. Today, his price is down with the possibility of Whiteside not being able to play. The Pelicans are going to be even weaker if JoVal misses this game. Either way, Gobert should be able to do his thing against this struggling Pelicans team. If Brandon Ingram misses this one, there is definitely blowout risk. Gobert’s rotations, however, make him a little bit more blowout-proof than some of his teammates. He is not going to play 35mins in blowouts but he is on the court to start the 4th. The Pelicans allow the 7th-most blocks to opposing centers which fits right into Gobert’s game. There should be a lot of missed shots which will translate into rebounds for the rebounding leader in the NBA so far this season.

 

SG/SF Anthony Edwards $7700

MIN @ LAC

This is a back-to-back for Minnesota but they played the Lakers last night so there is no travel. Edwards is priced for a different situation. That is when his team is fully healthy. However, the Wolves are not. They should be getting back D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns soon. If they are both still out, Edwards is too cheap for the current situation. He was over 8k when these 2 were healthy. The Clippers are not the same defensive team that they used to be. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George continue to be out. Edwards himself recently returned from protocols but played 32mins losing the last 5mins to blowout. He is a younger player so even on a back-to-back, should be able to play his regular minutes. If he does, the upside is through the roof.

In a small, 132min sample size this season, Edwards has a 35% usage rate averaging 1.37FPM with Towns and Russell off the court. It is not crazy to think that these are the numbers we should be expecting out of Edwards. Malik Beasley is the other player on this team that can fill it up. The usage flows to Edwards. He might not be the best playmaker, but he is going to get assists because of how often the ball will be in his hands. Edwards is one of the most athletic players in the league which allows him to rebound well for his size. The peripherals will be there. He needs to hit his shots to hit that ceiling game. He has not had that type of game recently which will keep his ownership in check. Even if one of DLo or KAT returns tonight, Edwards would still be in play. There is still a lot of usage left behind by one of those players. Clearly, this play would be downgraded if one of his talented teammates were to return.

 

PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. $6600

MEM @ BKN

JJJ might be my most written player this season. It seemed like everyone wanted to roster this guy just a few weeks ago. Ja Morant has returned but Dillon Brooks is out. There is still some more usage for JJJ to pick up. Kyle Anderson is going to miss this game which could give Jackson just a small bump in minutes. A big concern for JJJ is that he is foul-prone. Looking at his fouls this season, he has done a good job at keeping his hands to himself. His playing time is still a concern though because the Grizzlies have gone back to their old ways of shortening the starters’ mins for everyone not named Ja Morant and playing the bench more. Memphis is going to be without quite a few rotational pieces today though so maybe this is the game Jackson can play into the mid-30s in mins.

Brandon Clarke is back but that is not a concern to me. This matchup against the Nets is more suited for JJJ to play center than it is for Adams to do that. LaMarcus Aldridge is questionable. If he were to miss, it is going to be even harder for Adams to get his usual mins. Adams has been on a tear recently but his mins are always a concern. The Grizzlies were shorthanded so it was easier for Adams to get those extra mins. He is a traditional center that is going to get picked on by the Nets. JJJ is much more mobile and can switch on those Harden pick and rolls. I am not saying he is going to stop Harden because that is a difficult task for anyone but he is the preferred option to do that than Adams. JJJ has all the upside in the world with his defensive production. The pace suits him as well and he can have the monster game if he can knock down his shots.

 

SF/PF Aaron Gordon $5500

DEN @ DAL

Gordon returned from injury last game to play 21mins in a blowout win against the Rockets. He was able to play an 8min stint in the 1st quarter. The Nuggets continue to be short-handed which should lead to a few more minutes for Gordon. The matchup is nowhere near as good as today. Gordon is the Nuggets’ best defender. With Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis on the other side, Gordon is going to spend a lot of time covering those two players. Though the matchup is tougher, this game should be competitive allowing Gordon to play over 30mins. Vlatko Cancar was pretty much the direct backup for Gordon last game. He was supposed to play 2-3min stints but coaches lie these days. The other Denver bench players right now are Rayjon Tucker, Davon Reed, Bol Bol, and JaMychal Green. The starters will have to play big minutes because those are the guys Michael Malone trusts the most.

Taking Monte Morris and Michael Porter Jr. off the court, Gordon has a 20.7% usage rate averaging 0.93FPM. Anyone who has to play alongside Nikola Jokic is not going to have the best fantasy numbers. Gordon is not someone you should be building your lineup around. If you have about 6k left for a forward and have a chalky build, consider fading Marcus Morris, Larry Nance Jr., and Jae’Sean Tate for Gordon. All 3 of these players have concerns. Morris looks the best but ownership is going to reflect that. Nance could be in a blowout and has to go up against Clint Capela. Tate plays for the Rockets and who knows what is going to happen with that team today. Gordon is by no means safe. Dallas does struggle against shifty forwards and Gordon is one of the most athletic players in the league.

 

Just missed the cut: Tyrese Maxey, Terance Mann, Pat Connaughton (if Middleton out), Grayson Allen (if Middleton out), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (if Ingram out), Jaxson Hayes, James Johnson (if Aldridge out)

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…

Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships