NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 1/19/2022

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

SF/PF Jayson Tatum $9400

BOS vs CHA

This is a massive 13 game slate. The ownership will be spread out so the best plays are not going to be as high-owned as they should be. Some popular spend-ups today will be Nikola Jokic, James Harden, and Jimmy Butler. It is fairly easy to fit 2 expensive players with the Grizzlies and Jazz value. There should be even more value as the day goes on. Butler is SF eligible while Joe Ingles is SG/SF. The PF position is pretty weak which should make Kristaps Porzingis stand out. Since there are what appear to be better plays at SF/PF, Tatum should be a low-owned option today. The Celtics could be back at full strength today if Marcus Smart returns.  I am not concerned about less usage since Tatum is the #1 option on this team in one of the best matchups of the day. The Hornets play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the league with the 6th-worst defensive efficiency rating.

LaMelo Ball will return after missing the last game to push the pace. These two teams are polar opposites as the Celtics play slow and have a strong defense. This is a significant bump for Tatum and his teammates today. A 220 total is rarely seen for Celtic games. Tatum will go overlooked since there are no injuries that make him stand out. He has a 32.4% usage rate averaging 1.22FPM. The Celtics are not afraid to play him heavy mins in competitive games. He is more expensive than Butler who will be playing without Kyle Lowry. I prefer to roster Butler but if the ownership is drastically different, Tatum is a terrific pivot. You cannot pay up for everyone so Tatum is going to naturally be low-owned.

 

PG/SG Tyler Herro $7300

MIA vs POR

Butler should be one of the highest-owned players today. He recorded a triple-double last time out without Lowry. The Heat now get a better matchup than the Raptors in the Trail Blazers. Butler’s teammate, Herro, gets the same matchup and will be at a fraction of the ownership. Yes, he does not contribute as much in the peripherals. He does put up more shots and points. This will be a pace-up spot for Miami. With CJ McCollum back, the Blazers could start to push the pace a bit. Portland has the 3rd-worst defensive efficiency rating this season. McCollum’s return certainly does not fix that. The Heat welcomes back an important piece of their own in Bam Adebayo last game. Butler and Adebayo played nearly all of their minutes together. Herro comes off the bench and plays without both of them allowing him to take full control of the offense.

McCollum’s return should help keep this game close as the Heat are favored by 8.5pts with a 215 total. Without Kyle Lowry, Herro leads the team in usage at 30.7% averaging 1.10FPM. Other than Gabe Vincent, Herro really is not playing with any capable ball handlers. Max Strus, Caleb Martin, and Dewayne Dedmon specialize in other areas. Playing with this unit allows him to take all the shots and create for others. For a guard, he rebounds well. Adebayo’s return could cut into that but he crashes the boards hard. Butler should see Robert Covington and Nassir Little whereas Herro will see Ben McLemore and Tony Snell. I am not putting much weight into individual matchups but this certainly does not hurt.

 

SG/SF Bojan Bogdanovic $5800

UTA vs HOU

Anytime Donovan Mitchell is out, the Jazz become chalk. Usually, that means Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, and Joe Ingles. Bogdanovic is the forgotten man. When Mitchell is out, Bogdanovic receives the biggest usage bump at +4.7% to 27.5% averaging 0.94FPM. He is 2nd in usage on the team only to Jordan Clarkson. People run to roster the other 3 players but they do not produce that much better than Bogdanovic. Clarkson is at 1.07FPM and Conley is at 1FPM. Conley’s rates have not changed this season without Mitchell. He should play the same role and minutes. Clarkson should earn more minutes and will certainly shoot anytime he can. One of him or Ingles would close for Mitchell. Since his chalkier teammates are not that much better, Bogdanovic is very much in play.

Bogdanovic is shot-dependent. That is never fun to roster in DFS. Hassan Whiteside should be out today which does force the Jazz to go small in the 2nd unit. Maybe Bogdanovic could put up some better rebounding numbers because of that combined with the pace-up spot. Houston has the worst defensive efficiency rating this season and play at the league’s fastest pace. They allow the 5th-most 3pt attempts and the 6th-most 3pt makes. To the SF position, the Rockets allow the 6th-most 3pt made. This matchup suits Bogdanovic. The pace of this game will help everyone but Bogdanovic probably ends up under 20%. Playing multiple Jazz players is likely the way to go. By rostering Bogdanovic instead of one of his teammates allows you to get different builds.

 

C Isaiah Stewart $4800

DET @ SAC

The Pistons are on a back-to-back today. They played the Warriors on Tuesday so it is only a short trip to Sacramento. The Kings play at the 5th-fastest pace with the 5th-worst defensive efficiency rating this year. Stewart posted a double-double with 14 and 11 in 28mins on Tuesday. He will get a few more looks because of game log watchers. However, he will still be low-owned as he just has not shown much this season. The Warriors are a lot weaker inside with Draymond Green sidelined. Sacramento has been weak for years down low. Richaun Holmes is back but we can always target centers against the Kings. Stewart was able to take advantage of the weakened Warriors roster. He has a great shot at doing the same today against Sacramento.

The Kings allow the 3rd-most DKpts and 3rd-most rebounds to opposing centers. They are bottom in the league in rebound rate and defense while playing at the 5th-fastest pace. Stewart is an undersized center but so is Holmes. The other big men on this roster Marvin Bagley, Damian Jones, Tristan Thompson, Alex Len, and Chimezie Metu all are not that threatening. Sacramento are one of the best teams to target in fantasy. This game has a 220 total with the Kings favored by 5pts. Stewart and Trey Lyles actually played alongside each other on Tuesday which is very significant. Kelly Olynyk is inching closer to a return. If he plays today then scratch this pick.

 

Just missed the cut: Trae Young, Caris LeVert, Bam Adebayo, Cade Cunningham, John Collins, OG Anunoby, Derrick White, LaMarcus Aldridge, Chris Duarte, Gabe Vincent, Richaun Holmes, PJ Washington, Talen Horton-Tucker, Dwight Howard

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…

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