Welcome to week 15 of the NFL season. It is a week of Covid chaos. We’ve seen a Saturday game moved to Monday and two Sunday games moved to Tuesday night. Were you planning on locking Cooper Kupp? You’re going to have to rethink that. Countless players are on the Covid list and with protocols changing daily, who knows how many more will be added or subtracted.
Those who watched “Game of Thrones” might remember Littlefinger and Lord Varys debating debating whether chaos is a pit or ladder. I believe it can be either, depending on how one reacts to it. I am going to give six of my favorite plays to move you up the chaotic ladder of the week 15 main slate leaderboards.
Nov 29, 2020; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets cornerback Arthur Maulet (23) tackles Miami Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker (11) during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Wexler-USA TODAY Sports
1- DeVante Parker, $4,300 on DraftKings
Parker was my favorite value play of the week even before we got the news that Jaylen Waddle would miss. Now I am treating Parker as a NFL DFS lock. You can’t ask for a better spot than at home verse the Jets. Parker is easy to overlook because he’s missed 7 of 13 games this year. In the 6 games he has played, he’s averaging a respectable 12.5 DK points. Parker looked fine in week 13 returning from the IR to post an efficient 5 grabs on 5 targets for 62 against the Giants.
He should be even healthier coming off the bye week. I love picking on road teams with nothing to play for late in the season. The Jets fit this mold perfectly. I expect Tua to target Parker early and often. I will eat the chalk and be at least double the field on the Dolphin wideout.
2- Gabriel Davis, $3,700 on DraftKings
The second year receiver is becoming more involved in the offense as the season wears on. Davis is averaging 10.8 DK over the last 5 weeks, which would be fine in cash at this price. However, we can expect better out of him with Emanuel Sanders out.
At home, verse Carolina should be a get right spot for a talented Bills team that has lost 3 of their last 4 four. Teammates Stef Diggs and Cole Beasley looked like they will be higher owned. I’ll have more Davis at a big price and probable ownership discount. (On a crazy week like this you are going to absolutely need the latest projections and ownership data from the Domination Station on Sunday morning.)
3- Najee Harris, $7,800 on DraftKings
When I made my first look lineups, before Covid reeked havoc on the slate, I did not see myself getting up to Harris. Now there is no Cooper Kupp to pay up for and there doesn’t seem to be a ton of RB value that I love. The “keep it simple, stupid” move is to take advantage of the volume and safe floor that Najee provides. The Steelers NFL rookie is averaging 21.9 DK points at home.
Pittsburg absolutely needs this game to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. They’ve fed their bell cow RB all season and they won’t stop here.
4- Dak Prescott, $6,500 DraftKings and $7,500 on Fanduel
I’m buying the dip here in GPPs. Game log watchers are not going to want to play Dak coming off disappointing 11.9 and 12.2 DK point performances. Kyler and Josh Allen will be much more popular despite costing $1,400-1,600 more. With Pollard questionable and Zeke banged up, Dallas will look to their big money QB to pace the offense.
The Giants are a dead team, with no pass rush disrupt Dak. I will double stack him with all the combinations of his top 3 receivers (Ceedee, Cooper, and Gallup), none of whom project to be high owned. Metlife Stadium will be half filled with Cowboy fans and Dak Prescott is going to make them leave happy.
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5- Kyle Pitts, $5,800 on Fanduel
I hate this slate for tight ends. If you don’t pay up for massively chalky George Kittle, you’re holding your breath and hoping that he doesn’t post a slate breaking score. It feels like Pitts has been a disappointment as a rookie. And he has relatively to the hype and his ADP. That said, it would probably surprise you to know that Pitts has the 3rd most receiving yards (770) of any of TE in the league. He trails only Kelce and Mark Andrews, and Kelce has already played his week 15 game.
The reason his season has be unremarkable is that he only has one touch down. Is positive TD regression coming for the highest drafted TE in NFL history? Pitts is essentially priced like a punt TE on Fanduel. He’s only 200 more than Dalton Schultz and only 600 more than Albert Okwuegbunam. Amazingly, this NFL game has the second highest total (46) on the slate. Perhaps even more amazing, the 6-7 Falcons are still kinda in the playoff race. I’ll cross my fingers and hope Atlanta finally finds a way to utilize their unicorn rookie in the red zone.
6- Nico Collins, $3,500 on DraftKings and $5,300 on Fanduel
You may be sensing a pattern here. I love to target talent rookies who are in a position to emerge in late in the season. Collins saw a season high 10 targets last week against Seattle with fellow rook, Davis Mills under center. Everyone seems to think Urban Meyer getting fired will light a spark in the Jaguars. It may, but it will not suddenly turn their defense into the 85 Bears.
Houston clearly wants to get a look at their young players and the Jacksonville D does not scare us. Collins will be very low owned and a nice GPP pivot off the chalk WR value.
This is an NFL week like none other. We’ve got two game Classic slates, unexpected Showdown slates, and an absolutely wild Main slate. We’ve got you covered with breakdowns and projections for all. Get that good VIP Access now and save with promo code DFSARMY.