Welcome to the week 14 NFL main slate. It is a week where we have one game, Buffalo at Tampa Bay, with a total (54) that complete stands out from the rest of the slate. The number is 5.5 points above the game with the next highest total (48.5) in SF at Cincinnati.
The Geek has been known call a stand alone game like this “The Precious.” Those who are into not just fantasy football, but fantasy literature/movies will get it. The last time we had a game that separated this much from the rest of the slate Dak and Mahomes combined for a shocking zero TDs. Those who stacked the game won nothing but the right to post their favorite money burning GIFs to Twitter.
These two games are completely unrelated events. I’ll go out on a limb and predict that Brady and Josh Allen combine for at least one touch down. The disappointing Dallas/KC game has no affect on Buffalo/TB, but it is valuable to think back it and make a plan for how to profit if the obvious chalk game fails to shoot out.
I am certainly going to have some TB and Buffalo game stacks, but I’m not going to put all my eggs in that basket like I did with Dallas/KC. The builds that I seem to favor this week feature skinny stacks from multiple games. Here are six plays as I aim to keep in simple in week 14.
1- Austin Ekeler, $8,200 on DraftKings
We seem to have the LAC information we’ve been waiting on all week. It looks Keenan Allen is going to miss and Big Mike Williams is likely to play. I’ve heard everyone from Jaylen Guyton, to Josh Palmer, Jared Cook, and Donald Parham all touted on various podcasts. Why not just play the RB for the team who is a 9.5 point home favorite? This is an especially easy call when said running back has been top five at the position all year in pretty much every category or statistic. It also helps when that running back is heavily involved in the passing game.
I am going to start the bulk of my lineups with Austin Ekeler. With Keenan out, against this reeling Giants team, there isn’t a better floor/ceiling play on the slate.
2- Javonte Williams, $5,900 on DraftKings and $6,700 on Fanduel
The second RB that I want to get over the field on is the emerging Denver rookie. The probable return of Melvin Gordon is the only thing that’s keeping Williams from being extreme chalk in this spot. After his breakout 32.8 DK point performance against the rival Chiefs I don’t see the Broncos putting the Javonte genie back in the bottle, even with Gordon back.
We’ve successfully picked on Detroit with opposing RBs all season. Without Swift, Hockenson, and Jamal Williams it will be difficult for the Lions to keep it competitive. If the game gets out of hand it would make sense for Denver to lean heavily on the fresh rookie rather than the veteran returning from injury.
3- Ceedee Lamb, $7,100 on DraftKings
When I took my first look at the week 14 pricing, Ceedee Lamb immediately stood out. The young Dallas receiver had a quiet 19.2 point DK performance last week at New Orleans. He received 13 targets, but only managed 7 receptions for 89 yards. He didn’t score a touch down or reach the 100 yard bonus. He added a 33 yard screen that graded as run, because the pass went backwards. He could have easily had that bonus.
You beat Washington through the air. With Pollard likely out and Zeke banged up, Dallas will look to put the ball in Lamb’s hands early and often. Being priced right next to Godwin ($7,200) in the game that everyone will want to stack should keep Lamb’s ownership relatively low. I will, as usual, be glued to the Domination Station Sunday morning. If I can get Ceedee as a pivot off the chalk, I will attempt to be very overweight.
4- Jarvis Landry, $5,400 on DraftKings
Last week I talked about picking on the injury ravaged Baltimore secondary while touting Dionte Johnson. That worked out to the tune of 33.5 DK points. Landry is certainly not as explosive as Johnson, but the Baltimore secondary is even more depleted after losing CB Marlon Humphrey. Just two weeks ago Landry posted 19.1 DK while piling up 111 yards on 10 targets against these same Ravens. That was with a healthy Humphrey.
I would be surprised in Jarvis Landry didn’t see double digit targets once again from slot and I love the floor that he provides at this price.
5- Lamar Jackson, $7,400 DraftKings and $7,900 on Fanduel
Last week I suggested we take a shot on a low owned Kyler Murray, which proved to be excellent play. Before I pat myself on the back too much, I should point out that I made no real money on the call because I stacked him Zack Ertz, who absolutely bricked.
I think Lamar makes for a similar low ownership, high upside play this week. On DraftKings he is priced right between Tom Brady and Justin Herbert who should both be much more popular. Plus, he’s coming off two sub 20 point performances.
We know the ceiling Lamar Jackson has on any given week. Cleveland is missing one of it’s top corners this week, rookie Greg Newsome II. With both defenses dealing with significant injuries, I believe this game will play higher than its 43 point total. Give me some low owned Lamar in game that Baltimore desperately needs to win for playoff positioning.
6- Breshad Perriman $3,000 on DraftKings and $4,500
This is a bit of a crazy, boom/bust GPP dart. It is not a comfortable feeling to play someone whose high for DraftKings points on the season is 3.6. With Antonio Brown still out, the speedster Perriman appears to have taken the lead in the competition for Tampa Bay’s third WR. He logged 50 more snaps than Tyler Johnson last week.
Everyone is going to be on Godwin, Evans, and Gronk. Brady will likely take one or two shots down the field to Perriman. He only need to contact on one to absolutely smash his minimum price. In lineups where I am not playing the main TB targets, I’ll save salary with Perriman, while hoping to connect on a bomb.
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