Welcome to week 13 of NFL action, aka Foster The People week, aka The Island of Foster Moreau week. The two things that stick out most about this slate are an obviously mispriced chalk tight end and the fact that there are too many good RBs to choose from. You will have no problem finding 3 running backs that project well this week. The difficulty will be in choosing between them.
Do you pay all the way up for JT in a nut spot? Mixon and Ekeler are facing each other in a great game environment. Alexander Mattison should feast against Detroit in Cook’s absence. Eli Mitchell, Antonio Gibson, James Conner, and Jamal Williams are all too cheap and might be mega chalk on different slates. And on the off chance the Henderson sits, Sony Michel becomes a lock against Jacksonville at on $4,300 on DraftKings.
I’m going to give you my favorite RBs of the bunch, plus 3 more plays to build around.
1- Eli Mitchell, $6,000 on DraftKings
The 49er rookie is the first RB I’m putting in my lineups. San Francisco and Seattle are two teams moving in opposite directions. Seattle has lost 6 of their last 7 games, with the only win coming against the helpless Jags. The Niners have found their identity, winning 4 of their last 5. The identity of any Kyle Shanahan team is always going to start with the run.
In each of his last two starts Mitchell has received a whopping 27 carries. The concerns about his pass game usage, dealing with a finger injury were put to rest last week when he caught a season high 5 passes.
He should receive an even higher share of the carries this week with Deebo Samuel out. The versatile WR had averaged 7 rushes over his last 3 games. Mitchell should have a massive workload against a reeling Seattle defense that just gave up a combine 49.2 DK points to Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic last week. Give me all the Eli.
Huge wins happen at DFS Army. Any sport, any tournament. Any dream is within reach when you combine tools with legit coaching. Get better for FREE!
2- Antonio Gibson, $5,700 on DraftKings and $6,200 on Fanduel
Almost every week we get a discount on a player whose blowup performance in the previous week’s night game isn’t factored into his price. That discount this week comes in the form of the aforementioned Antonio Gibson. That discount is even more pronounced because the aforementioned J.D. McKissic is out. This is what everyone who drafted Gibson in the second round of their season long and best ball leagues has been waiting for.
Without McKissic coming in to steal the majority of the valuable pass down work, Gibson could see a season high in snaps and touches. This increased usage comes against a Raider team that is soft against the run. Gibson should get fairly chalky, but at this price, I’m willing to eat it.
3- Alexander Mattison, $7,600 on DraftKings
Kudos to the sites for assuming that Cook was going to be out and pricing Mattison up enough to at least make it a decision. That said, I’m still playing Mattison in this spot. The sample size is small, but in the 2 games Dalvin Cook has missed this season Mattison is averaging 28.2 DK points, including a 30.3 on a massive 32 touches against these very Detroit Lions.
If Dalvin Cook was $7,600 against Detroit we’d jam him without thinking twice. That is essentially what we are getting here. The only reason it is even a tough decision is abundance excellent RB plays to choose from.
4- Diontae Johnson, $6,800 on DraftKings
There seems to be a magical forcefield in the DraftKings pricing algorithm that doesn’t allow Diontae Johnson to hit 7k. Johnson is averaging 7.2 grabs on 12 targets over his last 6 games. The Baltimore defense is still tough to run on, but injuries to their secondary have left them more susceptible to the pass. Big Ben will be forced to get the ball out quick against D coordinator Wink Martindale’s blitz heavy scheme.
Johnson could flirt with double digit receptions in this spot. If he finds the box he will smash relative to his salary.
September 13, 2020; Santa Clara, California, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) passes the football against San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
5- Kyler Murray, $7,600 on DraftKings and $8,300 on Fanduel
Before you say I’m crazy, let me state that this is strictly an ownership based, large field GPP play. I don’t think this is a slate where one or two QBs stand out. Our projections suggest parody at the position and spread out ownership. After Lamar and Brady at the top, the next 9 QBs all project within a range of only 2.5 fantasy points.
When forced to make a decision for cash and single entry I’ll probably make the flop lag play on Tom Brady indoors, betting that it’s not another 4 TD week from Lenny. However, in Millionaire Maker type large field GPPs I think it is a good week to get weird at QB. You don’t get a lot of opportunities to be contrarian by playing Kyler Murray.
We currently have Murray at only a little over 3% owned. If you want access to our full ownership projections sign up for VIP Access now and fire up the Domination Station. You don’t even need to take a huge position on Kyler to get way above field. You can play 10% and triple the field.
It’s obviously a boom/bust play, but would you really be shocked if after a month rest, coming off a bye, Kyler Murray came out healthy and looked like Kyler Murray? You can stack him with Ertz and further differentiate from all the Foster Moreau lineups. You can also stack Murray with an equally low owned DeAndre Hopkins. The WR is priced at a season low $6,200 on DK. His previous floor was $7,400.
6- Darnell Mooney, $5,600 on DraftKings
The same force field that is holding Diontae Johnson’s price down must be affecting Darnellk Mooney’s salary as well. Mooney put up 20.5 points on Thanksgiving and somehow got a $100 price decrease. I feel like I highlight Darnell Mooney here every week, but if they keep underpricing him, I’m just going to keep playing him.
The second year wideout is averaging 22.4 DK points in his over his last 3 starts. Allen Robinson (doubtful) is likely to miss another week. Mooney is a number one receiver who is priced like a two or three. In those sneaky Arizona stacks I make, Darnell Mooney will clearly be the run back.
This is a fun slate, but tricky slate because there are ton of different ways you can logically build your lineups. This is not the week to play blind. We can give you all the tools to see the slate clearly. Sign up for VIP Access now with promo code DFSARMY for 10% off.