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NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 12/20/2021

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

Dec 17, 2021; Sacramento, California, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr. (13) dunks the ball in front of Sacramento Kings forward Chimezie Metu (7) in the fourth quarter at the Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

PG Lonzo Ball $7700

CHI vs HOU

You must be tired of these NBA slates we have had for the past week. There are so many players listed out for every team that some games have even been canceled. Today, we need to keep an eye out on the 76ers game as their Sunday game was postponed. I mentioned this before, but I need to stress it again. This article is written the night before the slate starts. These players could be ruled out and become bad plays or good plays which come at high ownership. The Bulls were back in action Sunday after a week of PPDs. They looked fine but will be on a back-to-back today. Generally, ownerships for these situations are a bit lower than if a team were to be rested. Chicago will be without some rotational players, most notably Zach LaVine. Ayo Donsunmu and Derrick Jones Jr. both should be out today as well. This will force the BUlls to run a tight rotation leading to more minutes for the starters.

The Rockets are a tremendous matchup. There is some blowout risk with an 8.5pt spread. Ball’s rotations are safer than Nikola Vucevic and Alex Caruso because he checks back into the game before the end of the 3rd quarter. As long as it is not a 30pt blowout, Ball will play mins in the 4th quarter. By the time the other starters have had their rest, they might not be needed back in. The Rockets allow the 3rd-most DKpts to opposing PGs. They have the 7th-worst defensive efficiency rating and play at the fastest pace in the league. Ball is properly priced for how well he contributes in various categories. Since his price is creeping up towards 8k, he is going to be low-owned as his teammates should carry the ownership. DeMar DeRozan looks like the clear spend-up while Caruso and Javonte Green could be values.

 

PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. $6700

MEM vs OKC

For whatever reason, nobody wants to roster  JJJ now. He was 40%+ owned for several slates after Ja Morant went down. JJJ has played under 30mins for 5 consecutive games. In those games, the Grizzlies have been in blowouts or JJJ has dealt with foul trouble. In a competitive game, Jackson should play well over 30mins. Now, it is not a guarantee this game stays close as they play the Thunder. In their previous meeting this season, JJJ put up 42.75DKpts in 20mins in the record-setting win. He can put up a monster game even if this game is lopsided. For all the reasons why he was popular, they still apply today. Removing Ja Morant from the floor, JJJ has a team-high 30.3% usage rate averaging 1.26FPM. He should be a mid-7k player under this situation. Due to a string of poor performances, he is too cheap for today.

The Thunder are bottom-third in defensive efficiency. They allow the 2nd-most DKpts to opposing PFs. Since the ownership has been low the past few slates, that should be the case again today. Steven Adams has directly benefited from JJJ’s struggles. He should carry some ownership at 5k. Dillon Brooks is coming off of a 49.25DKpt game on Sunday. He is a volatile player because he can be shot-dependent at times and is foul-prone. Brooks guards the opponent’s best perimeter defender which would be Shai Gilegous-Alexander today. SGA is excellent at drawing fouls which would cause Brooks to fail and lead to more usage for JJJ. Brandon Clarke has been out for a while now. JJJ is a boom-bust play which is weird to say for someone who produces at this rate. His concerns are clear but the upside is there in an excellent spot.

 

SF/PF Gordon Hayward $6400

CHA @ UTA

The Hornets are getting everyone back. Cody Martin is the only player who is out. Hayward’s minutes are not as safe with a healthy team. Charlotte got blown out by Phoenix on Sunday. Other than Miles Bridges, everyone played 27mins or less. They will be fresher than a usual back-to-back team. This is another tough matchup going into Utah. Since this game features Charlotte, it has a high total. This one has a 234 total with the Jazz favored by 11.5. That is concerning to see but in the event that the Hornets keep this game close, someone is going to have a tournament-winning performance. Hayward’s price is dropping. He is not going to see the same minutes or assists because their primary ball-handlers are healthy. He has shot poorly which means positive regression is coming. Hayward is familiar with the Jazz as he was drafted and played several seasons there. I would not necessarily call this a revenge game since it has been a while since he left.

Utah is an elite defensive team. It is not clear who will be guarding who but I would expect Royce O’Neale to be on Miles Bridges. This is going to leave Bojan Bogdanovic on Hayward which is a much easier matchup. Hayward has put up 10.25 and 18DKpts in his past two games. Nobody wants to target players against the Jazz. Hayward is going to be single-digit owned. People will be interested in rostering Jazz players though because the Hornets are a great fantasy target. You do not have to roster the other side but few will pick a Hornets player today. They do not stand out at all. This is a 6 game slate. On smaller slates, making plays like these are much more in play. This is strictly to get very different so do not go overboard if you decide to go with this. There is a clear path for how Hayward can get there.

 

C Ivica Zubac $4900

LAC vs SAS

This should be another single-digit owned play due to the reduced playing time. Isaiah Hartenstein has played so well that he is eating into Zubac’s mins a bit. Marcus Morris and Nicolas Batum are healthy allowing the Clippers to go small at the 5. Well, Hartenstein is out today. Serge Ibaka will likely play the backup center minutes. He has been downright atrocious. If he still is not in form, Zubac should see closer to his 28mins before the Clippers got healthy. This is a matchup where the Clippers might want to stay big with Jakob Poeltl on the other side. Besides Poeltl, the Spurs do not rebound particularly well. Zubac is a traditional center relying on layups, dunks, rebounds, and blocks. If Paul George were to play, it does not take Zubac out of play. Zubac does not demand the ball. His mins might be a bit more unsafe though as the Clippers are more likely to go small.

Zubac is a 0.95FPM player this season. He would project out to be over a 5x+ play. Since Adams is 5k, nobody will roster Zubac. I would prefer to roster Adams but the ownership difference will likely be significant. It would not be surprising if Zubac were to outscore Adams. Adams’ minutes are not as secure as they seem. Both centers carry risk but the ownership will not reflect that. This is not a play that you should be starting your lineups out with. If you have around 5k left in salary, Zubac operates as the last guy in. He has 40DKpt upside though he rarely hits that. On smaller slates, guys like this are more in play.

 

Just missed the cut: Nikola Vucevic, Terry Rozier, Robert Williams (if Joel Embiid out), Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, Hassan Whiteside, Rudy Gay, Andre Iguodala

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…

Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships