NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 12/1/2021

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

PG/SG Bradley Beal $9000

WAS vs MIN

There are lots of questionable players for today’s 9 game slate.  DraftKings has been quick to adjust the pricing on underpriced players whether they performed well or not. Pricing is tighter but it should loosen as we get value throughout the day. With Russell Westbrook no longer on the Wizards, many expected Bradley Beal to take off. He has not met those lofty expectations. Therefore, his price tag is slowly falling. He is at 9k today and should be low-owned. On the year, Beal has a 31.6% usage rate averaging 1.10FPM. Last season, he had a 34% usage rate averaging 1.29FPM. The newcomers, Spencer Dinwiddie, Kyle Kuzma, and Montrezel Harrell all command 20%+ usage rates. Even though Westbrook is out of town, the Wizards have a more well-rounded squad.

Returning from a significant injury, Dinwiddie is limited to 30mins a night and does not play back-to-backs. Raul Neto is a pass-first PG that helps Beal’s usage. Beal is too talented of a player to continue to have subpar fantasy games. The Timberwolves have the 6th-best defensive efficiency while playing at the 9th-fastest pace. They allow the 9th-most DKpts to opposing SGs. All these numbers do not stand out but it is important to note the injuries that the Wolves currently are dealing with. Patrick Beverley is still out for a while. Anthony Edwards, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Jaden McDaniels are all questionable with illnesses. Beal could be in a much better spot than it would seem on the surface. Even if all three of these players are in, Beal makes for an excellent GPP play.

 

PG Shai-Gilgeous Alexander $8300

OKC vs HOU

SGA was 7% owned on Monday’s slate. He is now $300 more which should only keep his ownership down. The Thunder are running some weird rotations. However, SGA is one player whose minutes are safe. In competitive games, he will typically play in the high-30s in mins. With this game being at OKC, they should keep it close in this rematch against the Rockets. They are actually 3 point favorites in a 211.5 total. As expected, Shai leads the team with a 27.6% usage rate averaging 1.06FPM. He has the upside to put up a 60DKpt game since he does not have the most talented supporting cast. Any guard injuries from other teams will draw ownership away from SGA and make him low-owned again today.

The Rockets play at the fastest pace in the league. The Thunder rank 14th in pace so this is a significant pace-up spot for them. For whatever reason, Josh Giddey has a minutes cap of around 32 because he barely exceeds that amount. A first-round rookie usually would get all the minutes he can handle. This gives SGA a small boost as Giddey is the threat that can steal away the touches from SGA. In a competitive game, one in which OKC is favored, SGA should be carrying the load. Last season, he averaged 1.20FPM. His average this year at 1.06 should increase moving forward as the roster got worse. With clear room for improvement in a great matchup, SGA is very appealing today.

 

PF/C John Collins $6900

ATL @ IND

The PF/C positions right now look dreadful. For how many fire emoji big men plays there were on Monday, this is a wasteland. All those centers have been priced up or there are injury statuses yet to be determined. Sort of by default, here is Collins. He has that red OPRK number next to his name on DraftKings. That automatically lowers a player’s ownership a tad even though that should mean absolutely nothing. Clint Capela is on a hot streak with 2 consecutive 54+DKpt games. However, Capela still does not get usual starter mins. It is all up to the coach on whether he exceeds 30mins. Myles Turner is questionable which will affect Capela’s mins for this one.

Collins is more appealing if Turner is out. The Pacers are reluctant to use Goga Bitadze which puts Domantas Sabonis at center. There would be no need for Capela to play big minutes then. The Hawks are dealing with a lot of injuries on the wing. Cam Reddish is currently questionable. If Reddish plays, the closing Hawks lineups would include Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, John Collins. The finals 2 spots would be 2 of Reddish, Capela, Lou Williams, or Danilo Gallinari. Hawks often do go small if the matchup makes sense. In that case, Collins will get center mins which is massive for his fantasy outlook. Turner off the court means a much weaker Pacers defense. If Collins is low-owned, make sure to get a lot of him if Turner is out.

 

PG/SF Terance Mann $4600

LAC vs SAC

Depending on how the injury news breaks, Jimmy Butler and Kevin Huerter could be 2 of the popular SF plays. Besides that, SF is looking scarce. The Clippers are getting healthier with Marcus Morris and Serge Ibaka back. However, Mann is still playing his usual role off the bench and closing games. This game has a 219.5 total with the Clippers favored by 6. The Kings will be on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back with travel. If this game blows out, Mann is playing most if not all of the 4th quarter. We targeted Mann last season whenever Paul George or Kawhi Leonard got ruled out. He might not have the highest usage rate in the world but can be productive.

The Kings are one of the best matchups for fantasy. They play at the 5th-fastest pace and have the 6th-worst defensive efficiency rating in the league. He is a do it all guard. Ty Lue loves Mann. If he can be a bit more aggressive today and take more shots, he should be a strong play. The peripherals should be there in this game environment. Mann is either closing the game if it is competitive or playing the entire 4th quarter in a blowout. He would then be playing with the reserves and get all the usage to himself. Since this play does depend on the game script, it is best to look for a better play as more options open up before lock.

 

Just missed the cut: Trae Young (if Myles Turner out), Miles Bridges, Khris Middleton, Montrezl Harrell, Terence Davis (if Harrison Barnes, Moe Harkless out), Naz Reid, Jalen McDaniels

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

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