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The Simple Six | DFS NFL Week 11 Leans for DraftKings and Fanduel

Welcome to week 11 of the NFL. It’s a main slate that feels almost like a single game showdown. If you’ve watched some of our recent Showdown slate videos you may have seen The Geek talk about bullying the Captain spot. I love this concept. On Showdown slates where a Captain play projects so much higher than every other player (like we’ve seen Jonathan Taylor and Alvin Kamara) he likes to go way overweight that player in the Captain spot to get as many logical combinations with him in MME contests.

I think we can apply Geek’s bully ball strategy not to a player, but a game, this week on main slate. Obviously, I’m taking about Dallas at Kansas City. The game has a 56.5 total featuring the two best offenses in the league. There are fantasy super stars and reasonable values plays on each side. Dallas is coming off a demolition of Atlanta and the Chiefs finally got their swagger back lightning up the Raiders for 41 points.

The Dallas/KC total is 6.5 points above the next highest game, Buffalo/Indianapolis which the only other contest with a total of 50.

I am going to put on a flannel, hop on the bike, channel my inner Deebo and bully this slate. 75-80% of my GPP builds are going to be Dallas/KC game stacks. If it busts, I’ll lick my wounds move on to next week. Here are six of my favorites plays that I’m going to use fill out these stacks.

1- Michael Gallup, $4.200 on DraftKings and $5,500 on Fanduel

I was surprised as I listened to content throughout the industry last week and noticed Gallup getting steam. I was a full fade on Gallup, not trusting that the snaps and targets would be there for Dallas’ third receiver in his first action since week 1.

My fade worked out well, as Gallup posted only 3 grabs for 42 yards, but it very easily could have went the other way. He was stopped on one reception at the 2 yard line and game script completely went against him. The game was a blowout, almost from the jump. Dallas barely needed to pass in the second half. Most importantly for Gallup, he looked good, came out of the game healthy, clearly ran ahead of Cedric Wilson, and barely received a price increase.

I’m starting my lineups with Michael Gallup as a cheap way into the best game on the slate.  The recent announcement that Amari Cooper will miss the game due to Covid only makes Gallup an even better play, although a more chalky one.

Jan 24, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) runs the ball in the AFC Championship Game against the Buffalo Bills at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

2- Travis Kelce, $7,100 on DraftKings and $7,300 on Fanduel

This is the last chalk player from the chalk game that I am going write about, but I have to make the case for paying up for Kelce. I am going to have exposure to all the top end play in this game, however due to price and positional scarcity, the Chiefs’ tight end is my favorite. You are getting Kelce at an $1,100 discount to Tyreek Hill on DK and he’s $1,200 cheaper on FD.  Hill almost certainly has the tougher matchup vs. Dallas.  TyFreek is certainly capable of burning Trevon Diggs, who is not afraid to take chances to make a big play.  The Cowboys have no one of Diggs caliber to make life difficult for Kelce.  Travis is coming off a 22.9 DK points in a game where he didn’t even score.

We currently show Kelce having very similar ownership to Darren Waller ($,6100) on DK.  DFS ARMY VIPs can check the Domination Station on Sunday morning to see if this holds.  If both top TE are similarly rostered, it will make me like Kelce even more.  Waller hasn’t really gotten there since week one.  Unless you are building a Cincy/LV game stack, I’d much rather find the $1,000 to get up to Kelce.

The popular punt TEs will likely be Cole Kmet ($3,400) and Dan Arnold ($4,100), who I think are fine at their prices, but Kelce has the potential, in this matchup, to put a score that buries the rest of the position.

 

3- Nick Chubb, $7,800 on DraftKings

So you’re telling me I can get one of the best running backs in the league, as a 12 point home favorite, against the worst run D in the league, at a reasonable price, and he’s not going to be super high owned? Sign me up!  Last time I touted Nick Chubb in this column he popped off for 33.3 DK points in a very similar sport against Cincy.

In a very small sample size we’ve seen D’Ernest Johnson be great when he’s the only RB, but he doesn’t seem to cut into Chubb’s workload as much as a healthy Kareem Hunt did.  With Baker Mayfield battling through shoulder, foot, and knee injuries, Cleveland is not going to mess around against the terrible Lions.  They are going to feed their stud RB.  I don’t think 100 yards and two TDs are out of the question.

 

4- Joe Mixon, $7,600 on both DraftKings and Fanduel

It feels like Joe Mixon is going to fly completely under the radar on this slate.  Conner and Dillion will be chalk.  People will pay up for McCaffrey.  We’ve got Jeff Wilson and Mark Ingram as just couple of the value plays.  No one is going to play Mixon at $7,600, but he’s in a great spot.  The Raiders are soft against the run.  They just allowed 32.4 DK points to the immortal Darrel Williams.

Mixon has 8 touchdowns in his last 6 games and should have fresh legs coming off the bye.  If I’m going to play all the chalk in the Dallas/KC game I am going to need to find ways to be different in GPPs.  If Samaje Perine doesn’t steal too many carries, Mixon can put up a ceiling game at low ownership.

 

5-Darnell Mooney, $5,200 on DraftKings

It seems like the entire industry plays Tee Higgins every week hoping to eventually get paid on all the unrealized air yards and targets.  Maybe this is the week Tee finally get there, but I prefer Mooney, who is $200 cheaper, as pivot at a fraction of the ownership.  Mooney is showing increased chemistry with rookie Justin Fields.  In their last game before the bye Mooney posted 20.6 DK points.

Allen Robinson is unlikely to play which should only lead to more targets for Mooney as the Bears attempt to keep pace with Lamar Jackson and company.

 

6- Rashod Bateman, $4,500 on DraftKings

On the other side of that same game, I like the Ravens’ rookie receiver.  Rashod Bateman is coming off back to back 8 target games.  Hollywood Brown and Devin Duvernay have both missed extensive practice time this week and look to be true game time decisions to play.  If either misses, it could open up more work for Bateman, who looks to already have earned Lamar Jackson’s trust.  Jackson should have plenty of time to throw with Khalil Mack sidelined.

If Bateman can find the end zone for the first time in his young career, he should smash his $4,500 salary.

 

I always close by saying best of luck building your Sunday lineups.  It is more than luck, however, if the big wins keep repeating.  We had another six figure winner this week in NBA this week.  There’s no better time to get VIP Access for 10% off with the promo code DFSARMY.