DFS NHL is a volatile sport centering around correlation, stacking and game theory. Learning how to win cash games and tournaments requires nailing those great upside plays/stacks, grabbing obvious value, and making the proper fades that sink everyone else’s ships. Let’s look through today’s slate and identify those winning picks in “Snipes, Grinders, and Hard Passes!”
Snipe = Good Play
Grinder = Value Plays (Grinders are Valuable)
Hard-Pass = I’m fading in tournaments
Feb 18, 2020; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Flyers right wing Travis Konecny (11) and Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov (44) battle for the puck during the second period during the first period at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
NHL Snipes and Hard Passes for Tonight
Correlated Snipe #1
Sean Couturier $6000
Claude Giroux $6000
Travis Konecny $5200
This is going to be an interesting game and whichever side you are stacking, I recommend also stacking with the goalie. I say this because this will be a fast game with a ton of shots on goal (see the average shots in our NHL Research Station!). Toronto’s blueline simply does not impress me, and when Jack Campbell doesn’t absolutely stand on his head, they give up scoring chances and ultimately goals. Philly’s scoring I believe will be relatively spread out with Cam Atkinson, Joel Farabee, and JVR; however, I believe that with how dangerous Toronto’s top forwards are, Couturier and Giroux will be relied upon even more with their neutral zone responsibility. There is a solid chance that with their spike in playing time that I am predicting that they can exploit the Toronto blueline and capitalize on a couple of odd-man rushes.
Snipe #2
Rasmus Ristolainen $3100
I am fairly certain he will get the blocked shot bonus which is enough fantasy points for a player this cheap, and if he gets that elusive assist, cash money, baby!! Also filling out a defensive position is good, and I will be doing so confidently.
Hard Pass #1
Minnesota Goalie
Arizona should always lose, they aren’t even an NHL team and don’t even have an arena next year. Minnesota’s goalie will be the stone chalk at the position, which is why I am fading him (see “How to Win DFS NHL in 2021” and go contrarian!!). He should not reach the 35 saves bonus, which immediately caps his ceiling; also, if he loses, you instantly eliminate a large percentage of lineups out of the field. In large field GPPs you could vomit stack Arizona, but with the one-off values that are out there I don’t deem it necessary at all.
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Correlated Snipe #3
Tyler Seguin $6800
Jamie Benn $3800
Alexander Radulov $4600
Miro Heiskanen $6000
Dallas at home with a core that has been together for a while is always going to be intriguing to me; especially when they are on a small slate of games. Nashville’s blueline is a shell of what they historically have been, and Pekka Rinne has not found the fountain of youth, in fact I think he is retired and in Finland somewhere. Nashville’s identity is unknown and they are one of these weird teams that does not have a direction. Ultimately, I see some special teams deciding this game which is gambling a little bit, but I think we could see Dallas dictating the play and chipping in a PP goal with Heiskanen being the catalyst of this offense. Jamie Benn is too cheap and is going to find his way, and Radulov loves to shoot. Just give them to me at their lower ownerships.
Snipe #4
Kirill Kaprizov $7400
He is one of the best NHL players in the league, he is facing the worst team in the league, and he loves shooting that puck. You can pair him with Zucarello $6600, but I don’t deem it necessary. Play Kaprizov as a one-off and live with the results.
Hard Pass #2
Austin Matthews $9100
Mitch Marner $7500
William Nylander $7300
Morgan Reilly $6100
I really don’t like fading this one on a short slate, but 30-40% Matthews with elevated ownership on all Leafs seems bad for tournaments. In NHL cash games, I think plugging in Matthews and Kaprizov as one-offs is a fairly simple thing that needs to happen, but in tournaments where people tend to correlate as much as possible (and even over-correlate); no thanks. Risky fade in tournaments here, but if Matthews and company beat me, they beat me. How dare I try to be contrarian.
NHL Grinder Value Plays
Grinder #1 – Eeli Tolvanen $3600
Grinder #2 – Clayton Keller $3500
Grinder #3 – James Van Reimsdyk $3000 (revenge)
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