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Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 1, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Dejounte Murray (5) dribbles the ball in the first quarter against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
PG Dejounte Murray $9600
SAS vs WAS
Not too much stands out on today’s 9 game slate. If we do not get value opening up, it will be more of a balanced build type of day. Murray is not someone we are used to seeing at this price tag. However, he deserves to be priced among the studs. He is probably the leading candidate for the most improved player of the year award right now. Murray leads the Spurs in usage rate at 26.2% averaging 1.32FPM. He racks up fantasy points in every way possible. He is not quite on the Russell Westbrook level but he also does not commit that many turnovers. Murray literally does everything for the Spurs. Jakob Poeltl is back but Murray is averaging 8.4 rebounds on the year so Poeltl will not take away the rebounds from Murray.
The Wizards are not the same matchup as they used to be. They are not a bad matchup but they have a much-improved defense and play a lot slower compared to when Westbrook was on the team. Add in the price for Murray, he becomes a low-owned option for today. On the small slates, Murray came in sub-20%. With 9 games on tap, he probably comes in around the teens in ownership. Since he is not a good 3pt shooter, he takes shots around the paint leading to a strong FG%. Even if he is not shooting that well, his peripherals help make up for the missed shots. Typically seen with road teams, the Wizards shoot worse on the road and turn the ball over more which could lead to more rebounds and steals for Murray today.
PG Kyle Lowry $7000
MIA vs DEN
Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro are questionable for today’s game. Herro missed the last game while Butler played. Since the Heat are playing the Nuggets, it is hard to see Butler missing this game. If both of these players miss, Lowry becomes a core play but also would come at high ownership. I am fine with Lowry even if the Heat are fully healthy. His price is dropping. This is due to the fact that he has not had a ceiling game for a while. The Heat are an elite defensive team and play slow. This is a formula for fantasy disaster. The Nuggets have an injury-depleted roster right now. Their defense is in shambles so Lowry should be able to take advantage of it. Lowry contributes in every statistical category. Though Monte Morris takes care of the ball well, the Nuggets are relying on other players to handle with Nikola Jokic hurt. This is leading to more turnovers, something Lowry could take advantage of.
With the Nuggets defense struggling, the Heat should be able to put up a lot of points. The Nuggets allow the 4th-most assists to opposing PGs and the 3rd-most blocks. The blocks do not mean much but it is an indicator that the Nuggets are friendly with the fantasy scoring allowed to PGs. On the season, Lowry has an 18.3% usage rate averaging 0.96FPM. He is only shooting 31% from 3 so there is room to grow in the scoring department. Lowry went scoreless the first time against the Nuggets this year. That surely will not happen again but it will scare people away from rostering him. This is an extremely contrarian play if the Heat are healthy in this low-scoring environment but Lowry has upside no matter the matchup.
SF/PF Rudy Gay $4000
UTA vs POR
This is only if Royce O’Neale is out. I do not like giving injury contingent plays, but the slate is pretty thin right now. Gay is no longer below 4k so just the sight of the 4 is going to lower his ownership. With Gay healthy now, Eric Paschall is no longer playing the backup PF position. Gay has taken that role from him. He might be in the latter stages of his career, but he still is a talented scorer. Gay has a 19% usage rate averaging 1.12FPM. The production is a little higher than expected. As the season goes on, that 1.12FPM rate should decrease to around 1 because he is shooting 58% including 64% from 3 right now. Those shooting stats are unsustainable. However, he is hot so all we need is just one more good game from him. He will need to rebound well because he does not do much in the assist and defensive categories.
The Blazers have the 3rd-worst defensive efficiency rating this season. Gay should see Robert Covington and Nassir Little in this one. Both of them are not cake matchups but they are not players to fear. RoCo is a better offball defender. Little plays with a ton of energy but Gay does not rely on athleticism. Gay is out there to shoot the ball. He gives the Jazz an additional offensive weapon. Last game with O’Neale out, the Jazz started Joe Ingles. The Jazz stagger the starters’ minutes. Gay checked in with 7:09 in the 1st quarter. Even in the blowout, he did play 4mins in the 4th quarter. He totaled 23mins of court time. If this game stays close, he has a chance to close if O’Neale is out. He should at least play a few more mins. This is a night game so we could get him at low ownership.
PF/C Naz Reid $3100
MIN vs IND
Reid should not be this cheap. He might be a bench player, but he is too productive to be at $3100. Reid has a 22.1% usage rate averaging 1.12FPM. D’Angelo Russell averages 1.13FPM and Anthony Edwards averages 1.09FPM. Reid is extremely productive when he is on the court. There are instances where Reid plays alongside Karl-Anthony Towns. This has resulted in DraftKings giving Reid PF eligibility. Do not play him at center. Reid used to benefit from blowouts because he would get all the mins to stat stuff. Now, those mins go to Nathan Knight. However, he did not play with Towns. Now he has that chance. Towns does get into foul trouble in which case, Reid would benefit immensely. This is a tough matchup for centers against Myles Turner, but there are many ways in which Reid could get more opportunity.
The Pacers use 2 bigs, Domantas Sabonis and Turner. This allows the Timberwolves to deploy Reid with KAT. This is not for certain that it will happen but they have done it in other matchups. In what seems to be the perfect matchup to use this 2 center lineup, we could see some additional Reid minutes today. He averages 17.1DKpts on the season. We have not had a Naz Reid chalk day this year yet since KAT has been healthy. That alone should make Reid more expensive than he is today. Since there is not any standout value, Reid could end up being the guy. Be sure to check his ownership and get over the field in the event that nothing opens up.
Just missed the cut: Paul George, Jonas Valanciunas, Will Barton (if Nikola Jokic out), Aaron Gordon (if Nikola Jokic out), Jae’Sean Tate, Terance Mann, Jalen McDaniels, Mo Wagner (if Mo Bamba out)
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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