NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 11/27/2021

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Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

PG James Harden $11400

BKN vs PHX

We finally have a decent-sized NBA slate. It feels like every day has either been an 11+ game slate or a 4 game slate. Spencer Dinwiddie is unlikely to play on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back. Mike Conley probably rests again because he has not played in back-to-backs for a while. There should be plenty of value today. I expect many to pick Luka Doncic. Though he just returned from injury and is playing with Kristaps Porzingis, he is a true fantasy stud. Kevin Durant and James Harden have to split the usage with each other whereas Porzingis does not have the same usage as the Nets duo. Durant should be higher-owned than Harden since he is cheaper than him. Harden is $100 less than Doncic at the same PG position. Lineup construction automatically makes Harden a low-owned play.

This matchup is not great. The Suns are absolutely rolling right now. They are winners of 15 straight. Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder are two of the premier 3&D players in the league. However, Harden and Durant are two of the best scorers in the world. With Kyrie Irving nowhere in sight, these two will continue to carry the entire offense. Harden is a former MVP but here are the numbers for Harden on the year. He has a 27.9% usage rate averaging 1.32FPM. Nash staggers Harden and Durant’s mins so at least one of them is on the court nearly the entire game. Harden contributes in every stat on the box score. He is one of few unguardable players in the league. With lots of value available, you should be able to pay up for multiple studs. Harden is one way to be different if all your value is chalky.

 

SF/PF Miles Bridges $7900

CHA @ HOU

This is a back-to-back for the Hornets. They blew the Timberwolves out on Friday. The Rockets are one of the worst teams in the league. However, the Rockets are at home with the rest advantage. This should be a competitive game as reflected by a 5.5 spread with a 221.5 total. PJ Washington is back. He started for the injured Mason Plumlee against the Wolves. Bridges should not be affected by Washington’s return. He is locked in for high30s to 40mins a night. Bridges is 23 years old so he should not be thrown off his game with no days off. The return of Terry Rozier has cut into Bridges’ production a bit. However, with the kind of start to the season Bridges had, he was bound to level off.

Bridges has a 23.3% usage rate averaging 1.07FPM. The Rockets are bad at defending everyone. Looking at forwards, they allow the most DKpts to opposing SFs and the 4th-most to PFs. Since Bridges has not had a ceiling game in a while, he has not been high-owned. In addition, teams on a back-to-back generally garner lower ownership. Nothing stands out in this price range because the players here are either on healthy teams or in tough matchups. Bridges could potentially close at center even with PJ Washington back. The Rockets are one of the best matchups. The one guy who will be popular is Donovan Mitchell. It should be easy to play him and Bridges with all the value available today.

 

SF/PF Jae’Sean Tate $4600

HOU vs CHA

On the other side of the ball, the Rockets should be a popular team today. The Magic were chalk a few days ago against the Hornets because Cole Anthony was out. Though the Rockets have Kevin Porter Jr. back, this is an excellent spot for the team. The Hornets are traveling into Houston for another game today. The Rockets stay at home coming off of a win against the Bulls. Even the bottom feeders of the league can beat the top teams or at least stay competitive. This tends to happen when the underdog is playing at home. That is what we have here. Christian Wood and KPJ both should be popular plays today. They are both too cheap in this matchup. People are catching on to centers vs Charlotte. Jalen Green is out for at least a week which will drive up KPJ’s ownership.

Playing 3 Rockets players in one lineup should be fine. Some people limit themselves to a max of 2 per team. It is no lock that the 3rd would be Tate. Some will go with Eric Gordon. I prefer to go with the upside in Tate. He is a tournament as his minutes are not safe. Armoni Brooks, Garrison Mathews, Danuel House, and KJ Martin all are in the rotation. The Rockets will close with the hot hand so Tate is not a lock to be in that final lineup. KPJ, Wood, and Gordon likely are locked in. If Tate is playing well, he will get those extra mins. With Green off the court, Tate has a 21.1% usage rate averaging 1.03FPM. If he plays over 30mins, he is too cheap in a spot where he should be more productive than that 1.03 rate. Daniel Theis was ousted from the rotation last game which should help Tate’s rebounding.

 

PF Jae Crowder $4000

PHX @ BKN

Crowder has hovered around the high teens in DKpts for the last few weeks. This has caused his price to plummet all the way down to 4k. With the Suns winning comfortably in just about every game, Crowder has not played over 30mins. Today could be a different story. The Nets feature a 2-headed monster that should force Monty Williams to keep Mikal Bridges and Crowder on the court longer than usual. Bridges should guard Harden while Crowder gets Durant. Chris Paul and Devin Booker can take Bruce Brown and Patty Mills. With Wizards and Jazz value, every player not on those teams will be low owned. Crowder needs to hit 3s in addition to his defensive contributions to have a good fantasy game. Since he should be out on the court longer, he will have more chances to contribute.

Durant is as tough of a matchup as one could get. As long as Crowder stays out of foul trouble, this should be the spot he finally exceeds 30mins. Cam Johnson and the other options just are not on the same level as Crowder and Bridges defensively. Both of the Suns 3&D players rely on CP3 and Booker to create shots for them. This is evident in his 14.7% usage rate averaging 0.75FPM. Crowder gets open 3-point looks every game with the defenses focused on their talented guards. If he can knock down his looks, he is well on his way to returning great value. Since he does not operate with the ball in his hands, his fantasy output will fluctuate. This makes him a boom-bust play but well worth the shot at this price tag.

 

Just missed the cut: Kevin Durant, Deandre Ayton, Gordon Hayward, Kyle Kuzma, Kemba Walker, Eric Gordon, Kelly Oubre Jr., Alperen Sengun, Deni Avdija, Raul Neto, Mo Wagner (if Mo Bamba out), Aaron Holiday

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

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