Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Nov 3, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine (8) runs the offense against the Philadelphia 76ers during the third quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
SG Zach LaVine $8000
CHI @ GSW
Today we have another huge slate. DraftKings has priced up the studs yet again. A more balanced build could be the way to go depending on how much value opens up. Nikola Vucevic has already been ruled out for this game. The Bulls could start Tony Bradley at center. Regardless of who they go with, they do not have the offensive talent that Vucevic has. More usage will flow to LaVine, DeRozan, and Ball. With Vucevic off the court this season, LaVine has a 42.8% usage rate averaging 1.43FPM. DeRozan has a 37.9% usage rate averaging 1.38FPM. It is a small sample size but the bumps are very significant because Bradley is a 10% usage player replacing a 28.6% usage player. LaVine was 33% owned on Wednesday which was a 13 game slate. He disappointed with 33.75DKpts at $7600. That will surely leave a sour taste in the mouths of those who rostered him last time. It is another big slate today and his price increased $400.
LaVine picked up two quick fouls and though he did not sub out, foul trouble affects the way players play. They cannot be as aggressive which usually does not end well for fantasy purposes. He only played 32 mins. I say only because he has played 38 mins consistently in close games. LaVine should play in the high 30s in mins tonight if the game stays close. The Warriors have one of the best defenses in the league so far this year. Draymond Green is questionable with a thigh injury. If he is out, this Golden State defense will take a significant hit. Even if he is in, I still like LaVine as a play. The Warriors play at the 4th-fastest pace. This is similar to how we target teams against the Bucks even though they too have an elite defense. Of course if Green is out, things look better, especially for DeRozan.
PG Jrue Holiday $6600
MIL @ BOS
Holiday is another chalky player that did not do too hot last game. He was not bad, but he was not winning anyone a tournament by himself. His mins were capped at 30 again. This will be his 5th game back from his heal injury. Holiday has logged big mins throughout his career. I expect him to play more mins very soon. A matchups against the Celtics is not appealing. However, a 214.5 total with a 1.5 spread looks a lot better for a Celtics game. Khris Middleton is still out for this one. Holiday’s rates this season have been nowhere near what he was doing last season when Middleton and Brook Lopez were out. Last season he had a 26% usage rate averaging 1.25FPM. This year, he is only at 25.8% and 0.96FPM. Though the matchup is not ideal, his price is too cheap. Even if the Bucks were healthy, this price is too low. Holiday is too talented to be under 7k and should be a 8k+ player with the current Bucks injuries.
Some will be concerned with Marcus Smart defense. Yes, Holiday will see some of him this game. Anytime you are playing with Giannis, he will be the defense’s main focus. Al Horford and Robert Williams are a talented-defensive duo. Maybe they can limit Bobby Portis a bit. Good offense beats good defense. Jaylen Brown is out so this Celtics defense is not at full strength. Holiday has been playing most of his mins alongside Giannis. The previous game, the 2 and Portis were playing together for most of the Wizards game. In the most recent game, Portis had his mins staggered. The Bucks usually stagger the starters’ mins so maybe Holiday is up next. He is getting healthier and should be able to handle 32+ mins in this one.
PG Kemba Walker $5000
NYK @ CHA
Coach Tom Thibodeau benched the starters for the entire 4th quarter in Wednesday’s game against the Bucks. This is a rare thing for any coach to do but especially for Thibs. As a result, Walker’s price keeps plummeting. He is nowhere near the player he once was. Well, he also is not priced that way. He has been awful the past few games including two single-digit fantasy performances. The Knicks do not stagger mins so Walker is fighting for shots with Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, and Evan Fournier. His direct backup is Derrick Rose, a Thibs favorite. Rose has often checked in the 3rd quarter and plays the entire half. These are all valid concerns. At 5k, Walker has a 10x ceiling. In the games he has played well this season, he has played close to 30mins. It is all up to whether he can hit his shots. I like his chances in this one against the Hornets.
The Hornets have the 2nd-worst defensive efficiency rating in the league this season. Combine that with them playing at the 2nd-fastest pace and it cannot get much better than this. Charlotte allows the 4th-most DKpts to opposing PGs. Everything seems to be working in Walker’s favor here. The best part is that nobody will play him. Many believe he is washed, but that is beside the point. All we need is for him to be good today. The right ingredients are in place: poor recent performances, falling price tag, and low ownership. For those narrative believers, this is a revenge game for Walker going back to Charlotte. Understand the risk with this play. He has a single-digit floor but we should target him for tournaments because his range of outcomes is so wide that he can be a tournament-winning play.
C Mitchell Robinson $4000
NYK @ CHA
Yes, another Knicks player. For a big slate, I try to pick players from different teams but I do not like any of the low-owned values right now. Robinson is another victim of Thibs’ rotations. He played 23mins last game. Usually, Thibs runs his starters into the ground so giving him 30mins might be a conservative estimate. Nerlens Noel is questionable for this but if he plays, Taj Gibson likely becomes a DNP. It is a more relevant injury for Gibson. Robinson is another player who has a wide range of outcomes but since he is a center, his floor is not as low as Walker. That of course comes at the center position, where you can only roster a max of two of them in each lineup. Opportunity cost is the highest at center.
Robinson has nearly a single-digit usage rate, but that is because he does not handle the ball and usually only shoots layups and dunks. He averages 0.91FPM on the year. You do the math. If he gets 30mins, he projects to score 27.3DKpts. That is nearly 8x. He has a 10x+ ceiling, especially with this soft matchup. Robinson excels around the basket. That would be rebounding and blocking shots. The Hornets are tied for the 2nd-worst rebounding rate in the league. They have allowed the 7th-most blocks to opponents. With P.J. Washington still out, Mason Plumlee should continue to see close to 30mins. The Knicks like to close with a true center. Robinson should be able to play at least high 20s in mins for this game.
Just missed the cut: Luka Doncic, D’Angelo Russell, Bobby Portis, Marcus Smart, Mikal Bridges (if Landry Shamet out), Jae Crowder (if Landry Shamet out), Trey Lyles
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
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