What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
SPEAKING OF GOOD NFL PROJECTIONS:
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QBs:
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Feb 2, 2020; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws in the pocket against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Patrick Mahomes ($7600): This is the cheapest that Mahomes has been on the main slate this season and it comes on a week where the Chiefs are implied the most points on the slate and their game features the highest total on the slate. Mahomes is an autolock to me this week and if he performs well and you do not have him cashing is going to be a tough accomplishment. SMASH
Derek Carr ($5900): The Raiders have a nice matchup and implied total but as mentioned just no reason to deviate from Mahomes this week. PASS
Josh Allen ($8100): Allen is only projected for .3 more fantasy points than Mahomes but is $500 more in salary. PASS
Pivots: None
RBs:
AJ Dillon ($6200): With no Aaron Jones, Dillon is in for the workhorse load in a friendly matchup against the Vikins and is projecting for well over 3x. He is a no brainer this week and should be one of the first players you click into your LU this week without question. SMASH
James Connor ($6100): With Kyler looking unlikely to suit up this week I do not like the upside of anyone on the Cardinals this week including Connor who got bailed out by a garbage time TD to hit value last week, better RBs available on the slate. PASS
Darrel Williams ($5400): The total of the game is amazing but Williams is just barely projecting for over 2x and the standard is a minimum of around 2.5 for cash so he is an easy fade this week for me especially with other value backs on the slate. PASS
Pivots: With no Elijah Mitchell or Alvin Kamara this week, Jeff Wilson and Mark Ingram are both projecting for well over 3x this week and that is about as good as it gets for value. I prefer Wilson to Ingram but you can run them both and be extremely optimal. With the emergence of those two backs I think David Montgomery will go lower owned than he should despite arguably being optimal 2 days ago. You have to adapt to the slate around you but at only $5500 Monty is well worth a stab if you do not feel comfortable rolling Dillon-Wilson-Ingram combo.
WRs:
Devante Adams ($8400): With the value that is just served up on a silver platter to you this week there is no reason not to play Adams who is the #2 WR in FPP$ despite being the most expensive one on the slate. He has been quiet recently but with his volume another blow up game is coming. SMASH
Tee Higgins ($5400): In his last 3 games he has seen 8, 6, and 15 targets but did not reach the endzone which is why I belive he is still at this price tag. At only $5400 and the Bengals being implied 26 points he is well worth another stab in your cash LU this week. SMASH
Jaylen Waddle ($5600): In his last 4 games with Tua at the helm, Waddle has seen over 10 targets in 3 of those games. Miami draws the Jets this week so I like their chances of maintaining possession throughout a majority of this game and if I had to pick between Higgins or Waddle it is Waddle all the way this week. SMASH
Pivots: Michael Gallup is the #1 WR in FPP$ this week and is only $4200 and gets you exposure to the coveted Chiefs and Cowboys game this week, he should be locked and loaded into your cash LU. With the value that has presented itself this week you should also be able to get to Tyreek Hill easily this week and even fit him and Adams in the same LU.
TEs:
Darren Waller ($6100): Despite being the #1 TE in FPP$, he is just not where I am looking to blow my extra salary this week as besides the Week 1 blow up he has hit over 2x just one other time this season. PASS
Dan Arnold ($4100): Trevor Lawrence will not and cannot stop peppering him with targets and despite the price boost I do not mind if your build puts you on him as he has seen an average of over 8 targets a game over the last 3 week which are TE1 numbers. SMASH
Dallas Goedert ($4400): If you are playing a TE in this range I would rather just play Arnold as he has a better matchup and Goedert with no Ertz has not been remotely what we expected it to be. PASS
Pivots: Cole Kmet has seen an average of over 6 targets a game the last 3 weeks and Fields has been playing a good bit better with each progressing week, he is also the #2 TE in FPP$ so playing him should not leave too many points on the board. John Bates is expected to be the starting TE with no Logan Thomas or Ricky Seals-Jones for Washington this week and is min price and will open up your LU quite a bit.
Defense:
Browns ($3100): The Browns should demolish the Lions but there are two better projected defenses on the slate I like more who are a good bit cheaper and defense is the best pay down position in cash. PASS
WAS Football Team ($2400): Cam Newton is not the Cam of old and the Panthers offense besides the first few weeks of the season have looked horrendous. They are also the cheapest defense that projects the best. SMASH
Panthers ($2700): You could argue on paper that the Panthers have the best defense in the league and are facing a depleted Washington team who is more than likely due for a pull back after getting a victory against the Buccaneers last week. SMASH
Pivots: None
Follow me on Twitter @LowOwnedWR with any questions! As always, run hot, Space Cowboy!