Welcome to week 6 of the NFL season. It is a rare slate where we have too many good running back plays to chose from. We’ve got Khalil Herbert and Darrel Williams underpriced for their new roles. Hunt, Taylor, Henderson, Hubbard, and Mixon are all mid-priced in great spots, while Ekeler and Cook are reasonable pay up options. I am going to give you my favorite 3 and few other plays to build around for what should be a fun week of action.
1- Kareem Hunt $6,200 on DraftKings
Let’s get this one of the way. With Nick Chubb out, Kareem Hunt will be massively owned at this price. I think it’s good chalk. It is not often that we get to play one of the elite Cleveland running backs without the other. Hunt is averaging 23.3 DK points in his last three games, and that was with Chubb in. He produced at that level while receiving only 10, 14, and 12 carries. As the lead dog in a pace up game verse an Arizona team without their head coach (Kingsbury is missing this game after testing positive for Covid) Hunt is a no brainer play for me. I’ll lock him in cash and try to double the field in GPPs.
2- Jonathon Taylor $6,600 on DraftKings and $7,500 on Fanduel
I very rarely play Taylor in scenarios where I’m concerned game script might go against him and he’ll lose all the pass down snaps to Hines. That is not implied to be the case this week, as the Colts are 10 point home favorites against Houston. Taylor is cheap, particularly on DK, because his 34.9 point performance in last Monday night’s game is not priced in. My only real fear is that Marlon Mack might vulture a late TD if the game gets out of hand, but I love JT’s ceiling enough to make him part of my core.
3- Joe Mixon $6,400 on DraftKings and $7,000 on Fanduel
Last week I pointed out that Detroit had already given up 19.4 DraftKings points to Elijah Mitchell, 41.5 to Aaron Jones, and 25.6 to David Montgomery. You can now add 30.3 to Alexander Mattison to that list. This point is clearly articulated in DFS Army’s new Top Performances By Position tool.
I would argue that Joe Mixon is a more explosive talent than all the RBs who have already lit the Lions up this year with possible exception of Aaron Jones. Mixon could fly a bit under the radar this week despite the nut matchup after taking only 28% of the snaps last week (I got that stat from MadnessDFS’ always on point Full State Breakdown).
Samaje Perine is out this week with Covid and Bengal’s beat reporter Geoff Hobson expects Mixon to regain his “normal” workload. I’ll take Mixon in GPPs and hope that he outscores the cheaper, but higher owned plays like Herbert and Darrel Williams.
4- Keenan Allen $6,400 on DraftKings
I am sucker for a good squeaky wheel play, especially when that player is as good as Keenan Allen. Big Mike Williams has out produced Allen so far this year, but you are getting a $1,700 discount (Williams is $8,100) on Allen. It is also notable that Williams has missed 3 straight practices and is a game time decision due to a knee issue.
I actually hope Williams plays, because if he sits I’d expect Allen’s ownership to shoot up. Baltimore defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale is know to be blitz happy. This could force Herbert to get rid of the ball quickly and pepper Allen with underneath targets.
5- Cleveland Defense at $2,600 on DraftKings
I can’t recall a week where I’ve had such a hard time finding a DST play that I liked. Playing a defense against Kyler Murray is never a comfortable proposition, but if there is ever a week to do it, this might be it. Kyler is playing on the road in front of a hostile Cleveland crowd. He is without his head coach/play caller. With no other DST plays that I love, I’ll take a shot that Miles Garrett and co. can force Kyler into a couple sacks and turnovers.
6- Amon-Ra St. Brown, $4,200 on DraftKings
If I’m going to pay up for the 3 RBs above and Keenan Allen (and probably a decent amount of $7,000 Travis Kelce), I’ll need to find at least one cheap WR. My favorite is the Lions rookie with a name that sounds like a Thundercats villain. With the Geek’s boy Quintez “Kick His Ass” Cephus on the IR, Amon-Ra led the Lions in all receiving categories last week with 7 grabs on 8 targets for 65 yards. St. Brown should get enough work at home against the Bengals, and if he manages to find the end zone, you are golden at this price.
Mecole Hardman is more of a boom/bust play at the same $4,200, but works fits nicely in stacks the KC/Washington game with its big 54.5 total.
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