Welcome to a wide open week 5 in the NFL. Many of the offenses we normally like to target for fantasy production (KC, Buffalo, LA Rams, and Baltimore) are not on the main slate. This should be a great week for those who are willing to get creative with their builds.
These are six of my favorite DFS leans as I try to craft lineups with a chance to finish deep in the money.
1- Kyle Pitts Finally Finds the Box in London.
I bought into the relentless offseason hype on the rookie NFL TE out of Florida. I’m overweight in season long, best ball, and I’ve played far too much of him in DFS. If it doesn’t change this week against the Jets, with Calvin Ridley out, it may never for Pitts in his freshman campaign. He is playing plenty of snaps (75.1%) and running routes on pass plays (83.9%). With no Ridley, the targets should only increase.
I wish he was on the main slate, but I’m not above waking up a 9:30am to play him in Showdown.
Oct 4, 2020; Houston, Texas, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (33) runs the ball against the Houston Texans during the second quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
2- Dalvin Cook Could Break the NFL Slate at $8,400 on vs Detroit on DraftKings.
Cook returned from a one game absence due to sprained ankle and received only 9 carries last week against a tough Cleveland D. The Lion’s run defense is the opposite of tough. They’ve already surrendered 19.4 DraftKings points to Elijah Mitchell, 41.5 to Aaron Jones, and 25.6 to David Montgomery.
If Cook gets his full compliment of snaps he will absolutely smash. This, however, is far from a certainty. He sat out the last two practices, but apparently intends on playing. In cash, I will resist getting cute and find the extra $600 to get up to a healthy Derrick Henry against Jacksonville. If we get the word on Sunday morning that Cook is active I’ll be overweight in GPPs, looking for that ceiling outcome at less than half the ownership of The Bid Dog.
3- Damien Harris ($5,500) is a nice pivot off Damien Williams ($5,600) on DraftKings
NFL Game log watchers who make their lineups on the toilet Sunday morning are not going to play Harris coming off performances of 4.6 and 3.1 DraftKings points. However, Tampa Bay has the best run D in the league and New Orleans may have the second. The Houston Texans are a bird of a very different color. This is a get well spot for the Pats, who are 9 point road favorites.
I love the matchup and likely game script for Harris. The Geek agrees. In his weekly Gameplan podcast he predicted that the Patriots keep feeding and feeding Harris like a classic Wu-Tang skit.
We currently have Williams, Damien five percent higher owned than Harris, Damien. VIP DFS Army members can check the domination station to see if that holds. If it does, Harris looks like good leverage in a butter soft spot.
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4- Speaking of NFL DFS Leverage, Welcome Back AJ Brown
Derrick Henry is rightly going to be the highest owned player on the slate. In large field GPPs like the Milly Maker we have to think about how we can get different. No one is going to want to play Brown in his first game coming back off injury. The Jags have a terrible pass defense. Tennessee would be wise to use this soft matchup to get Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown back on track. Brown’s return could also cut into Henry’s recent uptick in targets out of the backfield. The Titans are going to score points in this game and in spots where you are fading Henry, it makes sense to take a chance on Brown.
MadnessDFS wisely points out in his comprehensive game by game breakdown that Viska, Marvin Jones, and James Robinson are all viable run backs, whether you are on Henry or Brown.
5- I’m Doubling Down on Ceedee Lamb at $6,200 on DraftKings and $6,900 on Fanduel
We saw Robert Woods break last nights slate as the squeaky wheel and Tyreek Hill do the same last week. I highlighted Ceedee Lamb here in week 4 and I’m doubling down at home against the Giants in a game with the largest total (52) on the slate.
In the past two games the Dallas Cowboys have scored a total of 77 points. The tight ends and Cedrick Wilson have combined for 6 touch downs, while Lamb has scored none. I smell some positive TD regression coming for one of the most talented receivers in the NFL.
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6- It is time to buy Danny Dimes at $6,000 on DraftKings
Daniel Jones is averaging a surprising 24.8 points per game on DraftKings. The Dallas defense is giving up 28.5 points to the opposing QB on average through the first four weeks. This game is indoors at the Jerry Dome and as I said above has the highest total on the slate. It is easier to pay down a QB when you don’t have to worry about Pat Mahomes or Josh Allen putting a score that might lap the field.
Jones is cheap, he provides a sneaky rushing floor, and GPP upside if this game shoots out as 8 of the last 9 Dallas games with Dak Prescott active have done. I will have Jones stacks with Kenny Golladay ($5,900), Kadarius Toney ($4,000) and Evan Engram ($3,200) who are all fairly priced for their expected roles in this matchup.
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