Week 5 NFL WR-CB Match-up Breakdown:
Get your NFL DFS research rolling with this week’s match-up breakdown. We will take a look at a few guys that I think are in a great spot based on the match-ups along with a few guys that I might look to go underweight on.
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***Disclaimer*** Realize that we have just 4 weeks of data to go off of this season. Teams are going to move guys around as they learn to attack match-ups. The numbers I will quote in this article reflect just the 4 weeks of action. Let’s dig into the week 5 match-ups and find guys to go overweight on guys to go underweight on!
3 Guys in great NFL Match-ups being overlooked (ownership % wise):
Mike Evans (TB) vs Byron Jones: I was shocked to see Evans projected at just 4.9% on DK, to go with a 9.3% ownership on FD. He’s being projected as the 3rd WR for TB based on ownership. Evans is going to draw Jones coverage more than the other guys and that’s a boost as Jones has the worst numbers of MIA’s top 3 CBs to begin the season. Jones has allowed 0.32 fantasy points per route so far this season and has been targeted on 22% of his defensive snaps. He has allowed an aDot of over 14 yards so far this season.
Quintez Cephus (DET) vs Bashaud Breeland: Breeland has allowed a TON of fantasy points so far this season. I know we targeted him last week but let’s go back at him again as Cephus is projected at just 1.5% on DK and 1.2% on FD. Breeland has allowed a shocking 0.79 fantasy points per route run on the season, which leads the NFL. Cephus is averaging 0.37 fantasy points per route run this season, so it’s not like he’s just a total dart throw at this point.
4 Guys who we might be overlooking the match-up on:
Kenny Golladay (NYG) vs Trevon Diggs: Diggs has been an absolute stud so far this season. He has racked up 5 INTs through 4 games and continues to make big-time plays. With the Giants being down Shepard and Slayton, Golladay gets the Diggs shadow. I personally don’t consider Golladay elite by any means so this match-up favors Diggs in my opinion. Despite that, we have Golladay projected at 13.9% on DK and 21.7% on FD. Those are easy numbers for me to fade or go well below the field on, especially that FD number. Diggs is allowing just a 50% catch rate on the season. He is allowing just 0.25 fantasy points per route ran against him.
Amari Cooper (DAL) vs James Bradberry: Despite drawing Bradberry’s shadow coverage, we have Cooper projected at 17.3% on DK and 22.3% on FD this Sunday. I know Bradberry hasn’t been elite to begin the season, as he has allowed 0.42 points per route against him. I think his ability, coupled with the question about Cooper’s health, is enough to go underweight. We know how explosive this Dallas offense can be, so the decision could backfire but I prefer to use Lamp, Wilson, and one of the TEs over Cooper.
Keenan Allen (LAC) vs Troy Hill: Hill has had 99 routes run against him this season and has allowed a target on just 11% of those routes, along with just 0.15 points per route. I do understand a guy like Keenan Allen is mostly match-up proof but there is a reason why Hill has seen just 11 passes thrown his way. We project Allen at 15.9% on DK and 11.7% on FD. Hill has allowed a catch rate of just 53.3% according to our NFL WR-CB chart.
Antonio Brown (TB) vs Xavien Howard: We normally see Howard shadow but it makes sense that he isn’t doing that against this TB offense. He is going to see Brown more than any other WR based on route numbers so far this season. We project Brown to be 13.4% on DK and 10.9% on FD. Howard has been targeted on just 14% of his coverage routes (138 total). I do realize that Brown will still get his catches but I just don’t think he has a big play in him. Obviously, I would prefer Mike Evans to Brown from this game.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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