Get your NFL DFS research started with a full game-by-game breakdown of this week’s NFL slate. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for NFL DFS Week 7:
Oct 18, 2021; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) celebrates with running back Derrick Henry (22) after a touchdown during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
First, let me kick things off with a cool video that Geek put out reviewing week 6 cash and GPP lineups. It’s important to go back through your thought process on a weekly basis and what you can tweak in future builds, check it out! Also, a quick shoutout to VIP Member ‘kevinshiv01’ on his big $150k win this weekend, hell of a win!
-> Week 6 – NFL Cash and GPP Lineup Review <-
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas odds:
Total: 56.5
Line: Kc -5.5
Rundown:
We start week 7 off with a huge implied total at 56.5, safe to say neither of these teams has played a whole lot of defense this season. Patrick Mahomes comes in as the top projected quarterback on the slate and has a perfect 100 rating in the Domination Station below.
It’s pretty hard not to like him and his pass-catchers in this one. Speaking of his receivers, Tyreek Hill missed practice on Wednesday, so it will be interesting to see how he progresses throughout the rest of the week. If he were to miss we can expect Travis Kelce to see an increase in targets as well as guys like Mecole Hardman and a combination of Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, and Josh Gordon. Hill and Kelce combine for a total of 53.89% of this team’s targets, however, so if he were to miss it would open a good chunk for these guys. I have no issue going right back to Darrel Willimas in this backfield either, he’s shown he can handle a full workload and has receiving ability as well. From the Titans, I would expect AJ Brown is good to go in this one after being held out due to a non-Covid illness, but I’m not so optimistic on Julio Jones after he left early on Monday night with a hamstring injury. Ryan Tannehill and these guys should be able to throw all over the Chiefs especially if they can get the play-action working with Derrick Henry. Speaking of Henry, the guy is unreal right now and a hard fade if I’m being honest. We saw Christian McCaffery go through a couple of streaks like this last season where they feel like they’re locked into 25+ fantasy points. Henry had 38.6 DraftKings points last week and honestly probably should have been closer to 45+, he had 4-5 catches called back due to holding or an offensive penalty. Overall, both of these offenses are in play for stacking purposes, it’s going to be high scoring and gold for DFS production.
5-star plays: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry
4-star plays: Darrel Williams, Mecole Hardman (especially if Hill is forced to miss), Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown
GPP Note: I’m not going to talk you out of either offense in a game that has a 56.5 implied total.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Vegas odds:
Total: 42.5
Line: NE -7.5
Rundown:
We go from the biggest implied total on the slate to the lowest at 42.5 as the Jets head into Foxborough. We’ll start with New York where I think we’re looking at pretty much a stay away spot for me. I guess you could make a case for Corey Davis or Michael Carter if you’re multi-entering, but nobody I really want much of at all. New England plays slow and great defensively… the Jets are pretty close to a full fade for me in this spot. New England is a little more enticing, but still not a team that I’ll be all that crazy on. I do like the price tag on Jakobi Meyers yet, he continues to lead this team with a 25% target share. He had his first career touchdown taken away last week due to a penalty, but I like his chances to break the streak in this one and will go down as my bold call of the week that he does find the endzone in this one. The other piece from the Pats that I’ll have interest in is Damien Harris, he had a nice week last week going over 100 yards for the second time this season. The game script sets up well for him as well, he’s not a lock or a guy I’m going to be super high on, but a nice mid-range option that has a nice shot at a touchdown against a bad Jets team.
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jakobi Meyers, Damien Harris, New England DST
GPP Note: Nothing really from this game outside of one-offs for me.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Vegas odds:
Total: 47.0
Line: Bal -6.5
Rundown:
We’ll start this one with the Bengals, where I think we’re going to be hard-pressed to like a whole lot here. This is an extremely tough matchup for the Bengals, Baltimore’s defense has been really good as of late and held one of the best offenses in the league in the Chargers to just six points last week. Not to say you can’t get to one-offs here, but I don’t think the Bengals are a team I’ll get to as a stack. The price tag on Tyler Boyd is really hard to ignore, he’s the guy Burrow looks to slanting over the middle when he’s in trouble or needs a first down whereas guys like Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are more of the downfield guys. The price tag on Tee Higgins is nice as well for just a few hundred more than Boyd, but Chase obviously gives you the most upside due to his big play ability. Lastly, Joe Mixon returned to his usual workload last week with 23 total touches and a touchdown, I have no issue going right back to him at a nice price tag. From the Ravens, I really like the price tag on Lamar Jackson again. He disappointed last week as the Ravens seemed like they wanted to get all their all guys touchdowns, but I would expect that regresses back to what we’re used to seeing from this team. Lamar is projected to be the best point per dollar play at the quarterback position in the optimizer on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so go right back to him with confidence here. You can pair him up with a number of options in the receiving game as well. Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown are probably your most likely guys but I don’t hate taking a shot at Rashod Bateman for some savings. He got six targets in his debut last week and played in 65% of the team’s snaps. Then from the backfield there really isn’t much I want from the Ravens, they’ve got about seven guys they go to whenever they want to, so I’ll stick to Lamar and his receivers.
5-star plays: Lamar Jackson
4-star plays: Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman
GPP Note: I like the Ravens stack quite a bit again then run it back with one of these Bengals receivers or even Joe Mixon.
I quickly want to shout out VIP member ‘bobbywow1’ for his success in NFL DFS last season, as he took home $1,000,000 cash on the FanDuel main slate last season. I know he’s ready to put our VIP tools back to use for this season!
Washington Football Team @ Green Bay Packers
Vegas odds:
Total: 49.0
Line: GB -9.5
Rundown:
Starting with Washington, I like the price tag a heck of a lot more on DraftKings for Taylor Heinicke where he’s just $5.2k. I think he’s in play here paired with some of his pass-catchers, as I would expect the game script sets up for a lot of throwing as they should fall behind early and often. The Packers will be without Jaire Alexander again and likely Kevin King, so their secondary is pretty banged up meaning Terry McLaurin should be able to feast for your DFS lineups. Ricky Seals-Jones is a guy you can go right back to if you’re looking to double stack as well, he’s still really cheap and has at least six targets in back-to-back games and has essentially just stepped into that Logan Thomas role. We’ll have to keep an eye on the status of Antonio Gibson, as he has yet to practice this week. If he’s forced to miss JD McKissic becomes an interesting secondary option at running back due to his pass-catching abilities out of the backfield in a game that sets up well for him. From the Packers, any and all options should be viable here. Washington has played little to no defense this season, so Rodgers and the boys should roll in this one. Davante Adams is the clear-cut guy in the receiving game but Aaron Jones should see a good amount of work as well both on the ground and through the air.
5-star plays: Taylor Heinicke (DraftKings), Terry McLaurin, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones
4-star plays: Ricky Seals-Jones, JD McKissic, Antonio Gibson
GPP Note: I like this game as a whole for DFS purposes and think it could challenge that Chiefs game for production, both offenses are firmly in play.
Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas odds:
Total: 47.5
Line: Atl -2.5
Rundown:
We’ll start with the Falcons who are expecting to get Calvin Ridley back from being out for personal reasons which should help this offense a good chunk. While he’s been out, Kyle Pitts has been soaking up the targets with at least nine in back-to-back games. I would think this hurts Pitts a little, but he’s a guy they’ll need in this offense. Pitts got a large price jump on DraftKings, so I may wait and see how Ridley being back impacts him before I pay this price on him… which honestly isn’t all that bad, I’ll still get some tournament shares. Matt Ryan is a fine quarterback option if you want to full-stack this offense, he has at least 22 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Lastly, it’s hard not to touch on Cordarrelle Patterson right now, the Falcons obviously figured out how to maximize his potential, as he has at least six targets in three straight games in which he has at least 16 DraftKings points in each game. From the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa looked good from a fantasy perspective last week and gets a great matchup here, I don’t know how thrilled I am to stack with him due to his limited upside, but I don’t hate pairing him with a guy like Jaylen Waddle and just stacking up those receptions particularly on DraftKings where you get the full PPR bonus. I want to play Myles Gaskin here but his snap percentage went back down to 36% last week, so not a guy I can trust right now.
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts, Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle
GPP Note: Neither of these stacks are going to be a priority for me, but you can make a case for both of them if you’re willing to get a little different.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Vegas odds:
Total: 43.0
Line: Car -3.0
Rundown:
Starting with the Panthers, they’ll be without Christian McCaffery again in this one so it will continue to be the Chuba Hubbard show in the backfield in a nice matchup with the Giants. I have no issue getting right back to him here, he has a 91 rating in the Domination Station. Sam Darnold has come back down to Earth over the past few weeks which has really hurt the production of the receivers as well. DJ Moore is continuing to see targets and leads the team with a 28% target share, but he hasn’t had over 15 fantasy points in two weeks, this is a nice bounce-back spot with that being said. Robby Anderson has actually seen at least seven targets in three straight games which is interesting considering he’s done absolutely nothing this season, I’ll make him beat me a few times before I go back to him. From the Giants, I have a hard time thinking Saquon Barkley will be healthy enough to give it a go this weekend but Joe Judge hasn’t ruled him out yet. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s out again and Devontae Booker will be the bell-cow again. He’s been pretty solid but the price has obviously risen, more of a secondary option for me against what has shown to be a tough defense. I would think they’re without Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay as well, neither of them practiced on Wednesday and feel closer to doubtful than questionable. Meaning Sterling Shephard should eat targets in this one, he returned last week and immediately got peppered with 14 targets, I really like him at this price tag. I don’t hate Darius Slayton as a value option either assuming he’s good to go here. Daniel Jones probably isn’t a guy I want a ton of considering how many skill options he’s down this week but I don’t hate a sprinkle of a full Giants stack if you’re 150 maxing.
5-star plays: Sterling Shephard, DJ Moore
4-star plays: Chuba Hubbard, Devontae Booker, Darius Slayton
GPP Note: I likely won’t be stacking either of these offenses, but they both have some nice one-off pieces.
Check out Geek’s “First Look Lineup” construction video as well as you prepare for week 7!
Philadelphia Eagles @ Las Vegas Raiders
Vegas odds:
Total: 49.0
Line: LV -3.5
Rundown:
Onto the afternoon slate where we’ll start with the road Eagles. I have no issue just continuing to run Jalen Hurts out there, he may not be good from a real-life quarterback perspective, but he can put up fantasy points with the best on them. He has at least 21 DraftKings points in every game this season and I wouldn’t expect that to change here. He’s not a guy you need to pair with any of his receivers due to his rushing upside but I don’t hate getting to a Devonta Smith or Dallas Goedert if he’s available. Goedert should see an increase in targets with Zach Ertz traded to Arizona and is a nice price tag but needs to clear the Covid protocols first. Miles Sanders is a really frustrating roster… he’ll have a few runs where he looks great and then the Eagles just abandon the run. The saving grace on him is his pass-catching ability but it’s not enough for me to go back to him, he’s going to have to prove it to me first. From the Raiders, Derek Carr seems like a fair price on both sites and it’s hard to ignore the perfect 100 rating Darren Waller is sporting in the Domination Station. He’s the top stacking option with Carr and probably one of the better tight-end options on the slate. Hunter Renfroe is the safest wide receiver option, but guys like Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards come with a bit more boom/bust for tournaments. Lastly, Josh Jacobs is an interesting running back option. He’s been pretty consistent this season and continues to be a touchdown machine, I don’t expect Kenyon Drake to have two touchdowns again this week, so no issue getting a little Jacobs here.
5-star plays: Jalen Hurts, Darren Waller
4-star plays: Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert (if active), Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs
GPP Note: I don’t think you need to stack with Hurts due to his rushing upside as I mentioned, but Oakland is a fine GPP stack, but nothing I’m going too crazy on.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams
Vegas odds:
Total: 50.5
Line: LA -15.5
Rundown:
Now we get into some games with massive spreads, the Rams come into this one as a 15.5 point favorite, but we’ll get started with the Lions. Jared Goff has been pretty terrible, to put it bluntly, it’s a revenge game for him as he plays his old squad, but I can’t do it against this defense. I do like the price tag on D’Andre Swift again though, he continues to get passing game work with at least six targets in four straight games and if they’re unable to run the ball on the Rams they may pass through the air with dump-offs to him all day long. TJ Hockenson has yet to practice this week so keep an eye on his status coming into this one, but probably not a guy I love here either. You can make a case for Amon-Ra St. Brown again here, he played 78% of snaps last week and now has at least seven targets in three straight games. From the Rams, it’s a revenge game for Matthew Stafford as well, but he’s actually good and plays a pretty bad Lions defense. A full-stack is more than in play from this team with Cooper Kupp being the top receiving option. Guys like Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee are secondary options for a double stack as well. I do like Darrell Henderson a good amount in the backfield as well considering this should set up well from a game script perspective. Henderson has sneakily been one of the better running back options on the season from a consistency standpoint.
5-star plays: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Darrell Henderson
4-star plays: D’Andre Swift, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Amon-Ra St. Brown
GPP Note: The Rams are one of the better stacks on the slate for me.
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Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas odds:
Total: 47.0
Line: TB -12.5
Rundown:
Starting with the Bears, Justin Fields and his receivers are somewhat interesting here. The Bucs secondary is absolutely demoralized and really wasn’t great from the start. They’re one of the best run defenses in the league as well and the Bears should be playing from behind most of the game meaning they’re going to be forced to throw. I think the Bears make for a sneaky stack with guys like Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson. It sounds crazy, but it might just be crazy enough to work. Damien Williams is still stuck in Covid protocols but I would much prefer him over Khalil Herbert in this backfield if he’s able to go due to his pass-catching ability out of the backfield. From the Bucs, name someone… they’re in play. Okay, maybe not guys like Ronald Jones (sorry Ronald), but this offense should do whatever it wants here. It’s worth noting Antonio Brown was held out of practice on Wednesday due to a sprained ankle, I would expect he’s good to go for the game but something to note at the very least. Overall, Tom Brady and his receivers are firmly in play though with Leonard Fournette being a pretty legit running back option as well due to the game script setting up well for him here.
5-star plays: Tom Brady, Chris Godwin
4-star plays: Justin Fields, Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette
GPP Note: This game feels really sneaky to me… Go Bears? (I don’t think I’ve ever said that in my life.. Go Pack Go.)
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas odds:
Total: 47.5
Line: Ari -17.0
Rundown:
We’ll round out the slate with the largest spread on the slate with the Cards favored by 17 points which is just massive for an NFL game, they should absolutely throttle the Texans in this one. The only guy I really have any interest in from Houston will be Brandin Cooks and his huge 35.61% target share. The Texans are going to have to throw in this one and Davis Mills is clearly looking for him when he drops back. From the Cardinals, they’re pretty similar to the Bucs in the previous breakdown, everyone is in play here. Kyler Murray should have no issue doing whatever he wants so guys like DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, and Rondale Moore are more than in play. Chase Edmonds is interesting out of the backfield as well and has been pretty consistent this season due to his pass-catching ability giving him a nice floor. The Cardinals defense is firmly in play here as well, this one could get ugly in a hurry.
5-star plays: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins
4-star plays: Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, Rondale Moore, Chase Edmonds
GPP Note: All the Cardinals here.
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