NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 10/29/2021

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

SF Paul George $10000

LAC @ POR

George is coming off of an abysmal, 6-20 including 0-8 from 3, shooting performance on Wednesday night vs Clevland. The Clippers only scored 79 points that game. The Clippers should bounce back in a big way tonight vs Portland. The Blazers play at a fast pace and do not play any defense so their games always have shootout potential. We all know Kawhi Leonard is out. George will without a doubt, dominate the usage this year for LA. He has a 31.8% usage rate, averaging 1.48FPM to begin the year. In addition to Leonard, Serge Ibaka and Marcus Morris will both also miss this game. Some may be worried about Robert Covington defending him but I do not care about individual matchups. Plus, RoCo is a better off-ball defender than on-ball.

There are a lot of pay-up options for this Friday slate. LeBron James could miss his third straight game which would make Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis the highest-owned studs of the slate. Domantas Sabonis will be playing the soft interior defense of the Nets without his teammate Malcolm Brogdon. With so many other stars today that appear to be the better plays, George will be low-owned especially since he is coming off of a dud. The previous game before his 33.5 DKpts performance was vs this same Blazers team in which he recorded 39 DKpts in a blowout win. He had a strange stat line of 8 steals and 0 rebounds. I expect the Blazers to keep this one closer and allow George to play into the high 30s in mins.

 

PG/SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker $6700

NOP vs SAC

Be sure to check the ownership on NAW before lock but I think he should be sub 20%. With Brogdon out, TJ McConnell is the chalk guard play. Westbrook could be a chalk spend-up option while the likes of Malik Monk and Bruce Brown are the values at this position. This leaves the mid-range in no man’s land. Simply put, NAW is a fantasy player’s dream. He contributes across the board and shoots it a ton. Yes, he has shot poorly. 4-29 from 3 in his last 3 games to be exact, but we all know he is not shooting 13% from 3 the entire year. He is too talented to continue this cold streak forever. His peripherals are strong that if he shoots just decently, he is in store for a 50+ DKpt game.

The other concern is his mins. He has not closed the past 2 games but I believe that is due to his shooting woes. Garrett Temple closed the 1st, who is doubtful for this game. Trey Murphy III closed the 2nd. The Kings play fast and have one of the worst defenses in the league. They have been very weak against the guard position, giving more reason to roster NAW today. If he shoots well, he will get the additional mins and play into the high 30s. This sets up as a get-right spot for NAW, but with how the slate breaks down, his ownership might not reflect how great of a play he is.

 

SG/SF Will Barton $5900

DEN vs DAL

This is contingent on whether Nikola Jokic plays. He was warming up during halftime before Michael Malone yanked him to sit out the 2nd half. It seemed as if it were just precautionary, but then Jokic missed practice on Thursday. If Jokic is ruled out, many will go to Michael Porter Jr. He is the preferred play, along with JaMychal Green who should start in place of Jokic for value. However, it is not just the scoring that the Nuggets will need to make up for. Barton can play make well in addition to his scoring ability. He will be lower-owned than MPJ with the same upside. Barton had a 26.6% usage rate in Tuesday’s game, 2nd only to Jokic. He is healthy again so he will be able to play around 35+ mins.

Since he has been injury-prone the last few seasons, it seems many have forgotten what Barton can do. Scoring is his bread and butter, but he is not reliant on it. MPJ should have more rebounding chances but does not possess the same assist upside Barton does. Factoring in ownership, Barton is a solid pivot play off of his teammate. This might end up being a stars and scrubs slate so Barton is another mid-range priced option that will easily fit into any lineup with his position flexibility. This should come in handy as the Nuggets play at 10pm ET, only 30mins before the Lakers tip-off.

 

PF/C Robert Covington $4400

POR vs LAC

The man known as RoCo has gotten off to a slow start. The shot attempts have not been there but it is also due to a result of game script. The Blazers have been in 3 blowouts already. Norman Powell is questionable for this one with a knee injury. If Powell is out, Covington would see a marginal bump. RoCo has a low floor but a 40pt ceiling. His price has been dropping due to his recent performances. Again, the playing time is what is holding him back, not poor shooting. This game has a 223.5 total and a 2.5 spread. Covington should see around mid-30s mins to defend George. He is their best option to stop him. The low floor comes from his role as a 3-and-D player. Defenses know this Blazers offense runs through Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. If the Clippers try to take away those 2 guards, Nassir Little and RoCo will have open shots.

Covington racks up steals and blocks so he is better on FanDuel. At this DK price, he is in play at low ownership. He rebounds decently and maybe this game goes small, keeping Jusuf Nurkic and Cody Zeller off the floor late. The Clippers do close without a center most of the time. For $4400, RoCo needs to knock down a few 3s and rack up his usual rebounds and defensive stats to return value. Instead of paying all the way down into the 3k range, Covington provides similar salary relief at single-digit ownership in a great game environment.

 

Just missed the cut: Luka Doncic, James Harden, Collin Sexton, Chris Duarte, Jeff Green (if Jokic out)

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…

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