Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.” But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…
Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!
Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…
Jun 19, 2021; Brooklyn, New York, USA; Brooklyn Nets guard James Harden (13) during game seven in the second round of the 2021 NBA Playoffs at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
PG James Harden $9400
BKN @ PHI
Harden probably will never be single-digit owned unless his price is inflated. I think he is sub 20% today because he is only PG eligible. This position is stacked with LaMelo Ball, Malcolm Brogdon, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. With standout options in the mid-range, people should take at least one of them and pay up elsewhere. Remember when Harden was an absolute lock even when he was $12k? Take Kyrie Irving off the floor, in the highest total game of the slate at 230.5, and a cheap price tag and he’s not going to be a lock? Danny Green and Matisse Thybulle are good defenders but Harden is matchup-proof. There is no reason to shy away from a guy of Harden’s caliber when he is under 10k.
His teammate, Kevin Durant had the better game on Tuesday vs the Bucks. Keep in mind, Harden scored 48 DKpts in only 31 mins and on 6/16 shooting. Durant’s price tag actually dropped $600 for this slate. SF is much weaker than PG which should elevate KD’s ownership. On a 10 game slate, you should not be taking 2 of the main players from the same team. I would expect Harden’s 32.1% usage rate in game 1 to increase and come closer to Durant’s 42.8%, especially when Harden is their best playmaker.
C Nikola Vucevic $7800
CHI vs NOP
The Chicago Bulls are tough to read coming into this season. Integrating Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan is a dream scenario for any team, but a headache for DFS players. Looking at their first game, Vucevic had a 29.3% usage rate, 2nd to LaVine at 29.5%. With a 223 total and 7 point spread, hopefully, this game stays close in order for Vuc to get his full mins. He will destroy this price tag if he is in store for another 36 mins.
The New Orleans Pelicans should try to match Jonas Valanciunas’ mins with that of Vucevic’s. Both of these centers play a standard rotation in the 1st quarter. Ball and DeRozan ran with the 2nd unit to start the 2nd quarter on Wednesday. Though JoVal is a quality center, he has never been known for his defense. Vuc certainly has had his way in the past when they have been matched up with each other. In 22 games against one another, Vucevic has averaged 17pts, 10rebs, 3asts, 1stl, 1blk. Focusing on the more recent games, Vuc has put up monster double-doubles multiple times. I would prefer Vuc’s upside due to his offensive ability and assist contribution over Rudy Gobert in the same price range.
PG/SG Derrick White $5900
SAS @ DEN
If these websites do not raise the prices on the 2 Spurs guards, they will be on this article a lot this season. Both of these guys are poised for breakout years. I will prefer White over Dejounte Murray on this slate with the $1200 price difference. Their mins are staggered allowing each of them to run the offense. White is playing mins in both halves with Lonnie Walker IV, Devin Vassell, Doug McDermott, and Drew Eubanks. Bryn Forbes also plays alongside White at times. These players need others to create for them. Most of these guys are pure shooters meaning the ball is in White’s hands most of the time. These sharpshooters help White’s assist chances and his ability to score with the floor-spacing.
White is a player who DraftKings has priced too low to begin the season. He should be close to 7k at some point this year. The Nuggets defense is not threatening with Gary Harris and Jerami Grant long gone. The Spurs offense is clearly ran through their 2 guards. As long as we do not get Pop’ed or the game gets out of hand, White is a relatively safe option with close to 50+ point upside at likely single-digit ownership.
PG/SG Jalen Suggs $4000
ORL vs NYK
The value right now is not good but I always want to give a cheap player to consider. With 10 games, there should be better options by the time the slate locks so please go with those over Suggs. In the event, nothing crazy happens, Suggs is of interest to me. There are some red flags such as the tough matchup vs the Knicks and being underdogs with a 212 total. What intrigues me is the first Magic game. Suggs had a 25.9% usage rating. He shot 3-14 from the field. We can expect rookies to struggle with their shot but he was a top pick for a reason. The Magic want to give this guy the opportunity to grow.
The game vs SAS was a blowout but Jamahl Mosley inserted Suggs back in for another 5+min stint in the 4th quarter. He had 5 potential assist opportunities but ended up with only 1 assist to show for. Going from the Spurs to playing the Knicks is not a huge dropoff. With better shooting days ahead, Suggs can threaten for 8x value at this price tag.
Just missed the cut: Tobias Harris, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Michael Porter Jr., Derrick Favors
Final NBA DFS Thought
Winning a tournament is different than a cash game. Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority! Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic. Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo. Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays. And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.
Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…
Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships
