NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 10/19/2021 Today

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player.  And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

Kevin Durant $9900

BKN @ MIL

It might seem weird having Kevin Durant listed here (as a “low owned” play), but that is what we are dealing with on a 2-game star-studded slate. Giannis is a fantasy stud at only $100 more than KD. Curry has all the usage to himself at a cheaper price. Harden provides a higher DFS NBA floor with his assists and similar ceiling than KD for $600 less. The Big 3 of the Lakers are all priced much cheaper than Durant. As a result, he should be the lowest owned player out of all the stars. The case for KD starts with the game environment. This game has the higher total of the two games with a 237.5 projected total and is a pick’em. The Nets played at the 13th fastest pace last season. Meanwhile, the Bucks were the 6th fastest team presenting a pace-up spot for the Nets.

With no Kyrie Irving in the picture, there will be more usage for the Nets players who will be suiting up. Taking Irving and Caris LeVert (traded to IND midseason) off the floor last year, Durant received a 2.4% usage bump to 33.5%. He was a 1.6 FPM (fantasy points per minute) player under these circumstances. In their playoff series last season, Steve Nash started Blake Griffin at center with Durant at the 4. Now with LaMarcus Aldridge back with the team, he should start ahead of Griffin but neither are elite rebounders. This gives Durant a slight increase to his rebounding opportunities.

Since there appears to be some intriguing value options, along with the fact that DraftKings priced the studs a bit cheaper than they usually are, it should be easy to fit up to 3 expensive NBA players on this slate. Having Durant as one of your spend-ups would differentiate your lineup a bit from the field. KD has a similar ceiling to the other studs on this slate who are all projected to be higher owned. On a 2 game slate, these are the chances I am willing to take.

 

Khris Middleton $7200

MIL vs BKN

I will start this play out by saying that the midrange is almost non-existent on this NBA slate. It is Middleton, Jrue Holiday, and Draymond Green, who is on a minutes restriction to start the season. With the lack of options in the 7K price range, Holiday and Middleton will both garner significant ownership. However, I want to hit on all the price points. Middleton averaged 24pts, 8rebs, 4asts, and 2 stls last season in 10 games vs the Nets. 7 of those were in the playoffs so the production output will drop along with the minutes played. With this kind of stat line, Middleton is set up to be in another good spot this season vs the Nets, who are returning most of their roster from last year. He is the #2 option behind Giannis and serves as a pivot for anyone who decides to not spend up for the Finals MVP.

When the Bucks’ Big 3 are all active, one of them tends to have the big game. If you are already fading Giannis, it makes all the sense in the world to pick Middleton or Holiday. I side with Middleton because he is more of an offensive threat than Holiday is. Coach Mike Budenholzer staggers the starters’ minutes so when Giannis is resting, Middleton gets the keys to the offense. Since this is a stars and scrubs slate, picking any midrange option will give you a different lineup build. Though there are several value options, none of them are locks that you can pencil in for 20+ DKpts. Middleton serves as a swiss army knife of sorts of a play on this slate.

Patty Mills $3700

BKN @ MIL

Bruce Brown, Bobby Portis, and Kent Bazemore stand out as the best value plays. This is not to say you should fade all 3 of them. Rather, consider fading 1 for someone else who will be 1/3 of the ownership. Again, Irving is set to miss the start of the season. James Harden will operate as the PG while Durant will have the ball in his hands substantially as well. Steve Nash will stagger their minutes but there still is a need for another ball-handler on the floor. Enter newly signed PG, Patty Mills. During preseason, Mills played about 20-21 mins in the games he was in. This number should increase because teams use the preseason to evaluate which players get the final roster spots. Now with the rosters trimmed down and the games are now meaningful, the veteran PG should hover in the mid-20s in mins.

During his tenure with the San Antonio Spurs last season, Mills had an 18.2% usage rate averaging 0.74 FPM. Those numbers do not stand out but that is what you can expect for a sub-4K NBA player. For comparison, Bruce Brown and Bazemore both have 16% usage rates albeit a bit higher production. Since Brown and Bazemore should start, they will garner 30%+ ownership. I do not think they are 3x more likely to be better pt/$ plays than Mills. As for the matchup, the Bucks are a funnel defense. Last season, they allowed the 4th most made and attempted 3pt FGs. Mills is a quality PG whose skill set suits well for this game.

 

Nemanja Bjelica $3400

GSW @ LAL

This is my pivot off of a likely chalky Bobby Portis. Bjelica was a nonfactor last season for the Miami Heat. In prior seasons with the Timberwolves and Kings, he was a popular NBA DFS target. During his Kings tenure, he had a 17.2% usage rate to go along with 0.96 FPM. These are stats with everyone healthy meaning that both of these rates would increase in the event that a teammate was out. Bjelica played up to the low 20s in mins this preseason. He has been a stretch 4 but will be used at center by Steve Kerr, who has raved about having a shooting big man. The Warriors have not had one in 5 years since Mo Speights. He is an underrated passer, averaging close to 3asts in his 2019 season with the Kings. The dribble handoffs could lead to an easy assist or two with Steph Curry coming off of the screens.

Bjelica is a 39% career 3pt shooter. This matchup sets up well for Bjelica in that the Lakers feature two traditional bigs in DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard. Traditional centers are uncomfortable stepping out to contest shots because they would rather stay home and protect the basket. Anthony Davis will dominate Bjelica but luckily, their minutes will not be matched the whole game. With Curry being the centerpiece of every team’s defensive gameplan, any traps will lead to a wide-open look for Bjelica when he sets a screen. It is a matter of if he can knock down his shots. He should play around 20 mins with Draymond Green on a slight mins limit.

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

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