Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m mutt18 and I am one of your basketball, football and baseball coaches. We head into the 2nd day of playoffs with four games on the slate and we’ve got some juicy matchups.
A Look at Pitchers:
The main matchup I’ll be looking at here is Walker Buehler going up against Logan Webb in the late game, I expect this whole Dodgers and Giants series to be low scoring with the pitching these two teams have. I’ll also have some shares of Corbin Burnes going up against the Braves, along with Chris Sale against the Rays who just dismantled E-Rod last night.
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
Here we have Lucas Giolito going up against Framber Valdez, after the Astros gave it to the White Sox pretty good yesterday afternoon as Lance Lynn was very ineffective. Giolito is a big 4 seam fastball and change up pitchers, as he throws those two pitches 44% and 32% of the time, and Valdez is a big sinker and curveball guy as he throws them respectively 52 and 31% of the time. I think this will be a lower scoring game than yesterday was, and I want to target that Tampa Bay and Boston game the most.
White Sox 5 star plays – None
White Sox 4 star plays – Sheets, Abreu, Anderson, Robert, Jimenez
GPP note – Tough to love them here as not many profile well against sinker pitchers like Valdez
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Correa, Gurriel, Altuve, Brantley, Tucker
GPP note – Alvarez profiles very well here, and he’s been really hot leading up to the playoffs and to end the year.
Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
This is a sneaky game to target as well, as the Braves really haven’t seen Corbin Burnes much at all, and he stands out as one of my top pitching options on the day. Charlie Morton is on the other side and I think this will be another low scoring game, but one that could blow out, and if I were to put money on it I’d want my money on the Brewers.
Braves 5 star plays – Swanson
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Duvall, Pederson, Soler, Freeman, Riley
GPP note – Swanson is 4-5 in his career with 2 HRs off of Burnes and should be very low owned. Elite one off play. Joc Pederson is also 4-9 off of him with a HR.
Brewers 5 star plays – None
Brewers 4 star plays – Adames, Escobar, Yelich, Narvaez,
GPP note – Not a great matchup for the Brewers here, as Morton has good numbers against most of them, however Yelich is 5-16 off of him in his career.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Here we have Chris Sale going up against Shane Baz, and the Red Sox desperately need a win here in they want to have any chance of beating the Rays. Sale has been good to end the year, not elite, but this Rays team is elite against LHPs so I can see them getting to him here. The Sox do need J.D. Martinez back in the lineup, and Devers is now questionable tonight as well, so both their status’ is one to keep an eye on. But I do want to stack those Sox LHBs again here especially if Devers is in the lineup.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers (if in)
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez (if in), Verdugo, Renfroe, Hernandez, Bogaerts
GPP note – Sox haven’t seen much of Baz, they need to win here though so I’ll have some shares of this offense for sure with their ability to go off at any time.
Rays 5 star plays – Cruz, Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Diaz, Franco, Zunino
GPP note – Cruz is 12-35 off of Sale with 2 HRs, and Playoff Randy is already in full effect with a HR and a double last night, Rays offense is gonna be the top stack of the day here.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
Here we have Walker Buehler taking on Logan Webb tonight, and both these SPs have been elite all year long and Webb really came on late in the year to establish himself as the Giants ace. I won’t have a ton of exposure to these two offenses because of it but given it is the night game there could be some GPP winning upside with some of these bats.
Dodgers 5 star plays – None
Dodgers 4 star plays – Bellinger, Pollock, Turner, Seager, J.Turner, Muncy
GPP note – Chris Taylor is the only one who has a HR off of Webb in his career, him, Trea and Justin Turner are guys I will want shares of though as they all crush LHPs.
Giants 5 star plays – None
Giants 4 star plays – Posey, Yastrzemski, Longoria, Wade, Ruf
GPP note – Really tough matchup for the Giants bats here as Buehler has great numbers against all of them, if I am targeting them though Longoria has the best stats being 5-14 off of him.
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Tampa Bay Rays- The Rays are elite against LHPs, and after the smackdown they gave the Sox last night I don’t see that changing, especially with how early the Sox went into their bullpen last night, top stack on the night for sure.
- Houston Astros- The Astros profile very well again here tonight against Giolito, specifically Altuve and Brantley, so I’ll want shares of them along with Alvarez who has been on fire to end the year.
- Boston Red Sox – We need the status of both Devers and Martinez here, but if both are in then I really like this offense here tonight as this is a must win game, and they’ve stepped up their play as we’ve seen when their season is on the line.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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