Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too.
A look at pitchers
While today’s options aren’t quite as strong as yesterday’s overall, we still have some pitching options with high upside. Two of our pitchers have strong KSCORES (one is actually higher than any of the four from yesterday), but two are bad (one is REALLY bad). Keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to get an idea of where they’re looking, so you don’t get stuck with a dud!
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
We’ll start things off with Rasmussen and the Rays taking on Eovaldi and the Red Sox. If not for the Rays’ offense, I would like the Red Sox more here, but that does help make things a bit more even. It’s a 2-game slate, so hedging is pretty obvious, but I really like focusing on hedging between Eovaldi and the Tampa Bay bays. I think this game will be more up to how they perform, as I don’t see the Red Sox having a ton of issues scoring a few runs on Rasmussen. Either way, this should be a fun one to watch!
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Arozarena/Franco, Choi/Zuzino
GPP note – Eovaldi’s only real weakness right now is his .175 ISO given up to lefties, so be sure you’re attacking him from there. Still, be sure to grab some RvR bats for the late innings in case the bullpen has issues, because these guys will need to score some runs here.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Bogaerts/Schwarber, Martinez
GPP note – Rasmussen isn’t allowing a ton of power, but he’s not striking out many, either. Most of the Boston bats are hitting righties well, so don’t be surprised to see them rack up some runs here. Don’t forget to sprinkle around Verdugo/Renfroe and their near-.200 ISO against righties.
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Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox
Moving on to our next game, we’ll get Garcia and the Astros taking on Cease and the White Sox. Where I think we’ll have more scoring in the first game, I think we’ll have more pitching upside here. Cease is coming in with an incredible 604 KSCORE, something we don’t see very often at any point in the season. While Garcia has some decent strikeout potential, he’s not coming in burning down other offenses, so he’ll really need to bring his A-game to this one.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez, Correa/Altuve, Bregman
GPP note – Tough matchup here, and the last time these guys saw Cease, they struck out 10 times. I’d be sure to spread out a bunch of smaller 1-3 player stacks to go with any larger stacks, as the offensive production might be spread out a bit more than what these guys could do against lesser pitching.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Moncada, Abreu/Anderson, Sheets/Grandal
GPP note – Garcia’s strikeout rate is down and he’s allowing .412 wOBA / .210 ISO to lefties, so be sure you’re taking any lefties that start.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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