What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest NFL plays at each position for DK and see if they are worth everything you are paying for them. Cash games are all about finding value and squeezing every last drop out of the salary you are using. Cash is also about understanding what you are building for, our goal here is to be better than 50% of the field minimum, we are not trying to win GPPs here.
When that is understood it makes building your LU easier because you begin to understand that you are trying to make sure your DFS build is based around value and pricing and not upside and stacks, you are going to let other players make the mistake of being cute and severely crippling their LU and over the course of the season you are going to be up $$$ from letting others hurt themselves and putting yourself in positions to succeed. Having good projections is a BIG boost as well.
SPEAKING OF GOOD NFL PROJECTIONS:
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QBs:
Jalen Hurts ($7200): Hurts is far and away projecting to be the best value QB on the slate and it is hard to argue against that with them going up against the lowly Lions. Him not trailing the whole game could hurt that garbage time upside we have seen out of him all year but now they should just be putting up points while being ahead instead of behind. SMASH
Tom Brady ($7400): Hurts should be run away uber chalk in cash and it is hard to go against someone as high owned as he will be this week but while ownership is important in cash it is not what we need to base everything on. Brady and Hurts are the same price so it is basically a pick em and it is hard to argue that Brady doesn’t have the better floor and upside with how prolific the Bucs offense is, it is between him and Hurts this week. SMASH
Josh Allen ($8100): Hurts only projects for a fantasy point less and you get him at basically a $1000 discount. PASS
Pivots: None
RBs:
Darrell Henderson ($6500): He is the workhorse on one of the best offenses in the league who are implied the 2nd most points on the slate and is facing the Texans in what has the working of the perfect game script for him. At $6500 he is a no brainer lock. SMASH
DeAndre Swift ($7100): Swift benefits greatly from the negative game script the Lions pump out on a weekly basis and when it is postive or neutral Williams cuts in more than you would like. At $7100 all of the goodness of Swift is priced in and I think the Lions can easily keep it a game against Philly this week which is not great for Swift. PASS
Alvin Kamara ($8700): Kamara is not even in the top 15 in fantasy points per dollar for RBs this week, easy fade. PASS
Pivots: Elijah Mitchell has been the workhorse since coming back and after a good game last week I do not see that changing, at only $5400 he allows you to do a lot while not being just a salary punt. Zach Moss is only $5200 and seems to be the RB1 on the Bills this year and Buffalo is implied the most points on the slate, if he gets in the endzone he should be a lock to hit value. Joe Mixon is going up against the Jets this week and the Bengals are 10 point favorites, there is no better game script for him than that, not to mention the Bengals look like a legit team all around right now. Chuba Hubbard and the Panthers have had a brutal two weeks but draw the Falcons this Sunday and this looks to be the bounce back spot for them, Hubbard is only $6000 and the volume he is getting is RB1 volume.
WRs:
Cooper Kupp ($9000): At $9000 he is hard to swallow this week but he is the clear cut #1 WR in fantasy right now and only the Bills are implied more points than the Rams this week. If you take either Zach Moss or Mitchell this week you should have no problem fitting him and I highly recommend doing so if that is the case. SMASH
Deebo Samuel ($7400): Deebo has amazing volume this year but DJ Moore is basically the same price and is projecting a good bit better than Samuel is. Moore is also in a way more fantasy friendly game. PASS
Brandin Cooks ($5700): Cooks is really the only option the Texans have which should bode well for his volume but Houston still has to sustain drives for him to get that volume and I have little to no faith in them being able to do that against a good Rams defense.
Pivots: Calvin Ridley is only $6600 and is a true alpha WR, he has not seen a smash game this season but with his volume we know it will come eventually, I love this game for fantasy this week and I also love Ridley. With no Antonio Brown that once again makes Chris Godwin and Tyler Johnson very cash viable, with Godwin only being $6400 and the Bucs passing more than expected than any other team in the league, he is in lock territory for me. DJ Moore averaged over 20 fantasy points per game until Darnold and the Panthers started coming out flat the last few weeks, I am expecting a bounce back for the whole team against a bad Falcons defense. Tee Higgins has averaged over 8 targets a game since his return and the Bengals offense looks to be very legit, at only $5200 he is locked in for me this week against a Jets team who doesn’t look like they could stop any offense above league average.
TEs:
Dallas Goedert ($4700): I personally do not think Ertz leaving is going to do any good for Goedert if they continue not to scheme him in, I get why he gets the boost without him but I am not paying $4700 for him until he proves it. PASS
Ricky Seals-Jones ($3800): He remains the #2 passing option with Logan Thomas banged up and the WR depth behind McLaurin being garbage. At only $3800 with his volume he remains worth the look. SMASH
Noah Fant ($4900): With decent pay down options and TE being the most friendly pay down position in cash there is no reason to blow almost $5000 on Fant this week.
Pivots: With no Dawson Knox and the Bills being implied the most points on the slate, Tommy Sweeney at only $2900 is well worth a punt spot to me this week. Dan Arnold is projecting for almost 3x against a bad Seahawks defense who’s offense can no longer sustain drives, Lawrence has favored his TEs since coming into the league and Arnold is the clear cut #1 on the Jags.
Defense:
Bills ($3300): If I am paying up for defense this week in cash it will be the Bengals. PASS
Bengals ($3600): The Jets were bad with their first round pick Zach Wilson and I expect them to look even worse without him. The Bengals defense looks legit and they are almost projecting for 3x despite being $3600. SMASH
WAS Football Team ($2100): At almost min price against a Broncos team that is heavily regressing, it is hard to not just autolock them with the salary relief that they give you. SMASH
Pivots: None
Follow me on Twitter @LowOwnedWR with any questions! As always, run hot, Space Cowboy!