DFS NBA Full Court Press: FanDuel & DraftKings Main Slate – Oct. 20th, 2021

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 10/20:

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

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Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Hornets

Vegas Total: 223.5

Vegas Spread: Cha -2.0

We’ll kick the first big slate of the NBA season with the Indiana Pacers. They return most of their starting five from last season, but Caris LeVert and TJ Warren will remain on the shelf with injuries that have carried into the start of this one. Malcolm Brogdon has a pretty nice price tag to start the season, we saw him near $9k at times last season, but was mostly when he was on a heater back in April. He’s a really solid guy for cash games and does provide upside in tournaments in a nice matchup with a Hornets team that will have its struggles on defense. The Hornets struggled big time on the glass last season but did bring in some help with Mason Plumlee likely starting at the five. It likely won’t be enough to get me off Domantas Sabonis due to what he showed last season but should help at least a little bit. Sabonis easily led this team with 1.3 fantasy points per minute last season and should do so again here. Myles Turner will always be more of a GPP guy for me due to his volatility but he can hit threes and block shots with the best of ’em. Jeremy Lamb is currently listed as questionable and if he’s ruled out I would expect Chris Duarte to get the start and would be interesting at $3.3k on DraftKings and $4.5k on FanDuel. Whoever starts at SF for the Pacers will be interesting at their price point whether it’s Lamb or Duarte, but keep an eye on our Breaking News Feed for updates. From the Hornets, we get to see LaMelo Ball back in action, he led the team in both usage and fantasy points per minute with a 25.4% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute on the season. The Pacers ended the year as a top-five team in pace which can get overlooked with them as most people still think of them as a defense-first team, so I have no issue getting to Ball and some of these Hornets. I don’t know why, but I can never get Gordon Hayward right, his price tag seems fair, I’m just not sure how much I’ll really get to of him. It’ll be interesting to see how much usage Terry Rozier commands in the backcourt, we saw him take over at times last year but a lot of it was with Ball out, I don’t hate the price tag on him but would likely just go to Brogdon at a similar price range. The Hornets did get Kelly Oubre Jr. in the offseason and I would expect he comes off the bench as a sixth man type for them, I don’t love the price tag but you can take a flyer on him as well as PJ Washington and Mason Plumlee to round this team out.

5-star play: Domantas Sabonis. LaMelo Ball

4-star play: Malcolm Brogdon, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward

Deeper Value: Jeremy Lamb, Chris Duarte

GPP Sleeper: Kelly Oubre Jr., Mason Plumlee, PJ Washington, Myles Turner

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Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons

Vegas Total: 220.0

Vegas Spread: Chi -5.0

Starting with the new-look Bulls, they went out and got DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball in the offseason and seem like they’ve pushed their chips all in for the moment. We’ll have to use the first week or two to really analyze how this offense will run and who gets what usage, but we can give it our best projection for this opener. They do get a nice matchup with the Pistons who should be one of the league’s worst defensive units this season. Nikola Vucevic should be able to do whatever he wants in this one with the Pistons handing the keys to Isaiah Stewart at the five. He’s got some talent but showed to be a bit raw on the defensive end. Vucevic averaged the most fantasy points per minute last season with 1.39, but again this will likely regress with Lonzo and DeRozan on the team. Overall, he’s still a pretty great play in this one. Speaking of Ball and DeRozan, they’re both priced fair from first glance but will battle for usage and shots with guys like Vucevic and Zach LaVine. It’s probably more of a wait-and-see type team for me at the moment but no issue getting to these guys in GPPs. One guy I do think is a bit overpriced is Zach LaVine. Yes, he was dominant toward the end of last season, but I just don’t know that that type of usage will be there again with this new unit. From the Pistons, the only real new pieces on this team are Kelly Olynyk and rookie Cade Cunningham who will be out to start the season. That being said, we should see something similar in terms of usage and rotations from them this season. Jerami Grant led the team with a 29% usage rate last season and will likely continue at least until Cunningham is available. Isaiah Stewart performed right around a fantasy point per minute last season but is now THE guy in this frontcourt with Kelly Olynyk pairing up with him. I don’t have an issue with either guy in this one but not sure how much we really need to go there on an 11 game slate. That being said, if people are going to chase the Olynyk numbers from May, I’ll just go ahead and fade him, he’s not that type of player if he’s not seeing mid-30’s minutes and even then it may be a stretch. Then you can round this team out with GPP guys like Josh Jackson, Saddiq Bey, and Killian Hayes.

5-star play: Nikola Vucevic

4-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball, Jerami Grant, Isaiah Stewart

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Kelly Olynyk, Josh Jackson, Saddiq Bey, Killian Hayes

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Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks

Vegas Total: 218.5

Vegas Spread: Nyk -2.0

Starting with the Celtics, we’re going to need some news on them right off the bat with Jaylen Brown being questionable due to being in Covid-19 protocol. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates around him and who benefits if he’s out. For the sake of this article, I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s a go here. Boston returns pretty much the same team other than replacing Kemba, who we will talk about on the other side of this one, with Dennis Schroeder. They also have Al Horford back, but he’s out to start the season due to Covid protocols as well. As you might expect Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the main guys on this team. Tatum led the team with a 30.8% usage rate and 1.27 fantasy points per minute last season while Brown was at 29.6% and 1.18 fantasy points per minute. They’ll be the main pieces I want here, but I do like the price tag on Robert Williams. They seemed like they wanted to hand him the keys to the frontcourt last season, so I’m hoping for more of that here, but he’s a point-per-minute monster while he’s out there. You can make a case for Schroeder as well to round out this team in tournaments. From the Knicks, they were the landing spot for previously mentioned Kemba Walker who should be their starting point guard this season. They also got Evan Fournier who was on the Celtics to end the season as well and will start on the wing for them. Julius Randle was the main piece of this team last year with a 29.4% usage rate and 1.26 fantasy points per minute. I do like the price tag on him here, as the Celtics struggled with big men all last year and didn’t do much in the offseason to help that with Horford out to start the season. I would expect Derrick Rose moves back to the bench where he’ll own the usage in the second unit, but I would prefer Walker at the cheaper price tag honestly. The Knicks do get starting center, Mitchell Robinson back from injury as well. He’s always an interesting GPP big man due to his upside but volatility, so I don’t mind him along with RJ Barrett who has a nice price tag for tournaments to round this team out.

5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Julius Randle

4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Kemba Walker, RJ Barrett

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroeder, Derrick Rose, Mitchell Robinson, Evan Fournier

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Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors

Vegas Total: 218.5

Vegas Spread: Tor -2.5

Starting with the Wizards, they’ve got a new look to them as well with Russell Westbrook out of town and the acquisitions of guys like Spencer Dinwiddie, Kyle Kuzma, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Speaking of Spencer Dinwiddie, his price tag jumps off the page at me on DraftKings. He’s always been a nice point-per-minute guy and is going to get the start for a bad team where he should own the usage. I like him quite a bit here against a potentially rebuilding Raptors team. He’ll be in the backcourt with Bradley Beal who will likely end the year as the team’s leader in usage and fantasy points per minute. You’ll be paying for him here but he won’t need to deal with the usage monster that Russell Westbrook was this season. For perspective, with Westbrook and Wall off the court last season, Beal had a 39.9% usage rate and 1.5 fantasy points per minute… pretty elite if you ask me. Daniel Gafford showed some potential toward the end of last season as well and will be interesting to see how many minutes they run him out there to start the season, he’s in for a big year if they give him the minutes he deserves with Thomas Bryant still out. Then Kyle Kuzma rounds out this team for me, I never really play this guy and question if he’s actually good at basketball, so he’s more of a fade than anything for me. Then we get to the somewhat new-look Raptors team who dealt Kyle Lowry in the offseason. Goran Dragic will take his starting spot and Pascal Siakam will start the season inactive for Toronto. Siakam being out likely means Chris Boucher or even Precious Achiuwa starts in his place. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for a starting lineup, but if Achiuwa starts he becomes one of the better value options on the slate at near min price on DraftKings. Fred VanVleet shouldn’t skip a beat here and is a guy I have no issues with in this spot either he was really consistent last season and will look to continue that here. Lastly, Khem Birch will likely be the starting center on this team, he showed he was more than capable of producing when given the chance last season, I just don’t know how much I love that price tag.

5-star play: Spencer Dinwiddie, Bradley Beal, Precious Achiuwa (If starting)

4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Goran Dragic

Deeper Value: Precious Achiuwa

GPP Sleeper: Daniel Gafford, Khem Birch

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Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies

Vegas Total: 216.5

Vegas Spread: Mem -7.5

Starting with the Cavs, Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are going to run this backcourt and get a nice matchup against Ja Morant and company. I can’t say I love the price tag on either of them, but both showed great upside last season, I just wish this game had more pace to it. Jarrett Allen signed a long-term deal with the Cavs over the offseason and produced well for them last season. Steven Adams is always a bear to deal on the defensive end so it’s not exactly the best spot for him. We should see rookie Evan Mobley start for the Cavs right away and is an interesting play at $4.5k on DraftKings and $4.8k on FanDuel. He’s got the potential to stuff the stat sheet and a guy I like as a value play here. It will be interesting to see if Kevin Love goes to the bench if the Cavs do end up starting Mobley, it would make sense to take Love’s workload down a bit, as the guy is always injured. I don’t hate the price tag on him, but probably not a guy I’m going to get a ton of on a big slate. You can round this team out with Ricky Rubio who I don’t think will see enough opportunity with Sexton and Garland in the backcourt to pay off his current price tag. From Memphis, things need to start with Ja Morant who led the team with a 27% usage rate last season. He was second to Jonas Valanciunas in fantasy points per minute, but with Valanciunas no longer on the team maybe we see that go up? That being said, I don’t know that it necessarily helps him either, these guys were really good in the pick and roll game. I’m sure Steven Adams will be just fine as a fill-in, but just something to note. Jaren Jackson does seem to be fully healthy finally and in a small sample actually did edge out Morant in fantasy points per minute and was right behind him with a 26% usage rate. I really like the price tag on him here. We’ll probably see De’Anthony Melton start for Dillon Brooks who will miss the beginning of the season. Melton has always been a nice point-per-minute guy in his career so I have no issue getting to him here as well. I don’t think we need to get to guys like Kyle Anderson and Desmond Bane on this big of a slate.

5-star play: Jaren Jackson

4-star play: Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Ja Morant

Deeper Value: Evan Mobley, De’Anthony Melton

GPP Sleeper: Jarrett Allen, Kevin Love, Kyle Anderson, Steven Adams

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Philadelphia 76ers @ New Orleans Pelicans

Vegas Total: 226.0

Vegas Spread: Phi -3.0

Starting with the Sixers… man are they a mess, well, at least Ben Simmons is. At this point, I would be surprised if we ever see Ben Simmons on the court for the Sixers again, but he’s at least out for this game after being suspended by the team. Also, Ben Simmons, grow up… Moving on! With Simmons out guys like Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris should stand to be the main beneficiaries. With Simmons off the court last season Embiid had a massive 42.5% usage rate and 1.86 fantasy points per minute where Harris was at a 28.5% usage rate and 1.22 fantasy points per minute. I’m hoping the Sixers start Tyrese Maxey just because I think he’s the best of their fill-in options, but if he does start, I’m good with him as a value option in a pace-up game for the Sixers. Then you can round this team out with Seth Curry as a GPP option if you happen to fall on him. From the Pelicans, they added Jonas Valanciunas and Devonte’ Graham over the offseason and should stand to benefit right away with Zion Williamson out for the start of the season. With Zion off the court last season, Brandon Ingram was the guy you wanted with a 31.7% usage rate and 1.25 fantasy points per minute, so no issue with him in this spot. I would think Nickeil Alexander-Walker starts next to Graham in the backcourt here and hogs some usage while he’s out there so he hurts the rest of these guys just a touch. I do hope a change of scenery for Jonas Valanciunas gets him some more minutes because he’s a monster from a point-per-minute perspective. That being said, there’s also a chance he simply can’t handle 30+ minutes per game. Regardless it’s a tough matchup against Embiid in this one.

5-star play: Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, Brandon Ingram

4-star play: Seth Curry, Tyrese Maxey (If starting), Jonas Valanciunas, Devonte’ Graham

Deeper Value: Tyrese Maxey (If starting)

GPP Sleeper: Seth Curry, Devonte’ Graham, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Josh Hart

I wanted to give a quick shoutout to staff member – wwegner on nailing opening night, great start to the season! He locked in Bjelica, Nwora, and Poole to the tune of $2k+!

Orlando Magic @ San Antonio Spurs

Vegas Total: 212.5

Vegas Spread: Sa -5.5

Can we just skip this game? Man, it’s ugly and the implied total reflects that as the lowest on the slate by a good amount. Starting with the Magic, I think we’ll see Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs join the starting five this season, at least to start as they work Markelle Fultz and Chuma Okeke back. I don’t think I’ll have much interest in Wagner or Suggs really, I think there are better value options in better spots on this slate. Point guards continued to kill the Spurs last season so I do like getting to Cole Anthony in this spot, he proved to have a nice floor and ceiling last year. Jakob Poeltl is surprisingly great on defense, but the price tag on Wendell Carter Jr. is low enough to at least get a sprinkle of. Then you can round this team out with GPP flyers in Terrence Ross, Mo Bamba, and RJ Hampton who are all a bit too volatile for me to play in cash games confidently. From the Spurs, I like the price tag on Dejounte Murray a good amount. He proved to be the point guard of the future for this team last year with a solid floor/ceiling combination. He and Derrick White should see a nice boost with DeMar DeRozan now out of town. With him off the court, last season Murray had a 23% usage rate and 1.11 fantasy points per minute with Derrick White having a 27.3% usage rate and 1.14 fantasy points per minute. Keldon Johnson was impossible to get right last season, I do think he has potential in the NBA, but I’ll let him prove it to me first. Lastly, Jakob Poeltl is a solid option at a fair price tag. Carter Jr. isn’t exactly an elite defender and Poeltl was pretty consistent when given the opportunity last year.

5-star play: Dejounte Murray

4-star play: Wendell Carter Jr., Cole Anthony, Derrick White, Jakob Poeltl

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Jalen Suggs, Terrence Ross, Mo Bamba, RJ Hampton, Keldon Johnson

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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz

Vegas Total: 220.5

Vegas Spread: Utah -12.0

We’ll start this one with the Thunder side of things. Oklahoma City will return a pretty similar roster from last season as well but gain rookie Josh Giddey who may enter their starting lineup from the jump. He led the team in minutes in their final preseason game and can get it done all across the stat sheet, I like him as a value option even in a tougher matchup here. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led this team with a 29% usage rate and 1.2 fantasy points per minute last season. I would expect a lot of the same this year and I think the price tag is a bit too low on him. It’s a tough matchup, but a guy I think you can get to in GPPs at the very least. The rest of this team, with guys like Isaiah Roby, Darius Bazley, and Lu Dort are probably more GPP options than anything in this matchup, and until we kind of get a better feel on how the minutes will get split up. From the Jazz, they’ll return pretty much the same roster as last season outside of guys like Rudy Gay and rookie Jared Butler who will both be depth pieces for the time being. The Thunder really struggled at times on the defensive end last season, so the Jazz are guys I’m going to like here. Rudy Gobert should be able to do whatever he wants against Roby and company here. While Donovan Mitchell led this team with a 33.6% usage rate last season, and Jordan Clarkson right on his tail at 29.4%. Clarkson will likely stick to come off the bench this season and own a good chunk of that usage in the second unit. I do like the price tag on Mike Conley who always seems to be a couple of hundred dollars too cheap, he’s a solid option in all formats. Then guys like Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, and Joe Ingles are deeper GPP guys on a big slate.

5-star play: None

4-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley

Deeper Value: Josh Giddey

GPP Sleeper: Isaiah Roby, Darius Bazley, Lu Dort, Jordan Clarkson, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, Joe Ingles

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Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns

Vegas Total: 223.5

Vegas Spread: Pho -6.0

Starting with the Nuggets who will start the season with Jamaal Murray still sidelined from his injury last season. This means Monte Morris should continue to slide into that starting point guard spot. I can’t say I love the price or the matchup with Chris Paul in this one, so it’s a spot I’ll likely stay away from. Nikola Jokic is the main piece on this team and should be in line for another MVP run this season. DeAndre Ayton picked up his defense a ton in last year’s playoffs, but Jokic is matchup-proof as we are all well aware. I do like the price on Michael Porter Jr. though, with Murray off the court last season, Porter Jr. had a 23.7% usage rate and 1.13 fantasy points per minute. This guy can straight up ball, and proved he has a ceiling like no other in his price range. The only issue is that comes with a lower floor that you would like so probably more of a GPP guy, but if you want a little risk in cash you can get to a little of him there as well. Then guys like Will Barton and Aaron Gordon are more flyer-type plays you round out this team. From the Suns, they’re going to return a lot of their roster from their championship run last season as well. Devin Booker remains the leader of the offense and averaged 41.3 DraftKings points per game against the Nuggets in six games last season. I don’t LOVE the price tag on him especially since he had trouble meeting production expectations based on his salary with Paul in the lineup last season. Chris Paul actually led the suns at 1.22 fantasy points per game and Booker led the team with a 32.7% usage, so those two stats don’t necessarily correlate for the Suns. DeAndre Ayton looked like an all-new player as I mentioned above in the playoffs. That being said this is a really tough matchup against Jokic and company down low, I’ll wait for a better matchup. Then guys like Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder are filler-type plays to round this one out.

5-star play: Nikola Jokic

4-star play: Michael Porter Jr., Devin Booker, Chris Paul

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: DeAndre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Monte Morris, Aaron Gordon, Will Barton

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Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trailblazers

Vegas Total: 232.5

Vegas Spread: Por -5.0

Last but not least, I give you the biggest implied total on the slate… and it’s really not close. We’ll start with the Kings who return much of the same roster as last year as well. De’Aaron Fox was the clear leader last season with a 31% usage rate and 1.25 fantasy points per minute. The Blazers aren’t going to play much defense this season, so I’ll get me a good amount of Fox in this spot.  Harrison Barnes, Tyrese Haliburton, and Buddy Hield are all in that similar price range in the mid-range of guys you can look to as secondary options in a great matchup. My favorite would likely be Haliburton, as he showed a nice ceiling and floor last season where with Hield you’re looking for that ceiling game and Barnes is more of the floor guy for cash games. Then to the big men, Richaun Holmes is going to be my preferred option just because he seems like he took a step up last year. I never love playing bigs against Jusuf Nurkic, but in a game this fast, I like Holmes ability to show off his athleticism. From the Blazers we get cover boy Damian Lillard who pretty easily led the team last year with a 31.1% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute, he’s a pretty strong option even at a $10k+ price tag tonight. For tournaments, pairing up Lillard and Fox makes for a really fun late-night game stack in hopes they can shoot this one out. I never love playing CJ McCollum when Lillard is healthy, for some reason he just never really gets it done for me but is a fine secondary option. Jusuf Nurkic is a guy I do like here, as much as I like Holmes offensively, he leaves a lot to be desired on the defensive end. If Nurkic can get back up to consistently hitting 30 minutes he’s simply too cheap at this point. I do think you can get to guys like Norman Powell and Robert Covington as mid-range guys, we may not see the 35+ minutes out of Covington against this season with Larry Nance now on the team, but that’s what he’s done his whole career so I wouldn’t put it past him.

5-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic

4-star play: Harrison Barnes, Tyrese Haliburton, Richaun Holmes, CJ McCollum

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Buddy Hield, Norman Powell, Robert Covington

NBA Lock of the Day: (See the NBA Cheatsheets for My CORE PLAYS!)

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