Last week I used this Simple Six column to highlight buy low NFL opportunities on DraftKings and Fanduel. We got there with Saquon, CEH, and Javonte Williams as underpriced RB options. I was right that the Giants would give a up a touchdown to a Falcon tight end. Sadly, that TE was beefy third stringer Lee Smith and Kyle Pitts busted with only 2 grabs for 35 yards. Wiz Kalif Raymond wound up being the cheap Detroit WR that got targets, not Quintez Cephus, and Bobby Trees spent another week in Cooper Kupp’s shadow.
Hopefully you followed me on running backs, but faded me on pass catchers. I’ll try to do better with the following six buy low targets for week 4.
1- Antonio Gibson, $6,100 on DraftKings
Everyone’s favorite second round pick in season long/best ball took a 73 yard screen to the house against the Bills and only saw a 200 price increase. Gibson scored 17.4 DK points last week on only 13 touches. That was at Buffalo, in a blowout, where game script worked in the opposite of his favor. Week 4 provides a much softer spot on the fast track in Atlanta. The suspect Falcon run defense just allowed 21.4 DK points to Saquon Barkley, behind a struggling Giants’ offensive line.
Gibson is a value as the 15th highest priced RB on DraftKings. This could be a breakout spot and our last chance to play him in the low 6K range.
Oct 25, 2020; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) makes a catch on a pass from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (not seen) during the second half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
2- Brandon Aiyuk, $5,000 on DraftKings and $5,700 on Fanduel
Whatever hamstring or Shanahan doghouse issues caused Brandon Aiyuk to lose snaps for the first two weeks of the season seem to be behind him. Aiyuk saw a full compliment of NFL snaps week 3 against Green Bay and ran a route on 92% of San Francisco’s drop backs. He even burned the Packer’s top corner Jaire Alexander for a touchdown on a crisp button hook route.
The sites were not able to account for Aiyuk’s increased usage because his week 4 prices were set before he played in a night game. We see this happen every week and often try to take advantage of it. The Niners host Seattle in game with 52 point total. Aiyuk looks like a cheap run back with upside to play along with Seahawk stacks, or as a one off. The Geek likes this game as an early week target. His First Look videos for both Fanduel and DraftKings are always a can’t miss.
3- Ceedee Lamb, $6,700 and Amari Cooper, $6,000 on DraftKings NFL
How many times are we going to see the Dallas Cowboys score 41 points while both Lamb and Cooper bust? That’s what happened Monday night in a weird NFL game against Philly. Dallas got a defensive TD, Zeke ran for two, and TE Dalton Schultz, of all people caught two TDs.
The Cowboys lead almost the entire game and never really had to press the ball down the field. America’s Team hosts the surprise 3-0 Panthers in week 4. This game has only a 4.5 point spread and 50.5 total. Carolina should keep the game competitive, forcing Dallas to make use of their star receivers this time around.
I will have this game stacked every which way from Sunday, on Sunday, but Lamb and Cooper (if late week practice injury reports are good) are my favorite pieces.
If you want to see what our roundtable of NFL gurus think about this game, and Cooper/Lamb, check out “The Gameplan.” Dive deep into DFS tournament winning theory and strategy before setting those lineups!
4- Stefon Diggs, $7,600 on DraftKings
I am willing to play the squeaky wheel narrative here. Josh Allen quieted early season doubters passing for 358 yards and 4 TDs against the supposedly stout Washington D. Somehow, Stef Diggs wasn’t really involved in the fun, posting only 6 grabs for 62 yards. Manny Sanders caught 2 TDs and Cole Beasley had 11 grabs.
The Bills should be able to do whatever they want as 16 point home favorites verse the terrible Texans. I am willing to bet that Josh Allen makes it a point to get his number one receiver going. Houston has no one who can cover Diggs and Allen will find a way to get him in the end zone.
5- Odell Beckham, $ 5,800 on DraftKings
Odell shook off the rust in his first game back post ACL surgery last week, tallying 5 grabs on 9 targets for 77 yards. The Browns didn’t need anything more from Beckham as the defense completely shut down Justin Fields and the hapless Bears. Their week 4 NFL contest with a 51.5 point total in Minnesota should be much more up tempo, high scoring affair. Baker Mayfield will need to feature Odell if he is going to keep pace Cousins, Thielen and Jefferson in the dome.
6- Tommy Tremble, $2,500 on DraftKings NFL
It’s a bit scary to be touting and playing someone that I legitimately had never heard of at this time last week. DFS Army member yeffariah clearly knew of Tommy Tremble because he played him in FanDuel’s Thursday Million contest at 0.2% ownership and is 40k richer as a result.
The Carolina Panthers proved their confidence in Tremble by trading away starting TE Dan Arnold. There is no question that this will lead to more snaps and routes run for the stone minimum priced rookie.
I say this every week, but I’ll be glued to the domination station and chalk board to gauge how heavily Tremble will be owned. I think there is some truth to theory that almost any chalk tight end is worth fading in GPPs. It is also quite uncomfortable to punt TE on a slate where Travis Kelce is facing a Philadelphia D that just gave up two TDS to Dalton Schultz.
You are definitely crossing your fingers and taking a leap of blind faith with Tremble, but if you tried making lineups already this week, you probably realized there isn’t much comfortable value. If you want to roster players like Derrick Henry or Davante Adams, punting off TE with Tremble seems like the easiest path.
Good luck tonight on the Showdown Slate with awesomely terrible game between the Bengals and Jags. Who is going to be next DFS Army member to ship five figures? The Geek and Bobby will break it all down for you. Become a VIP for access to domination station optimizer and cheat sheets that continue to crush.
