The DFS NFL week 3 slate is an interesting one. We need to decide how much we want to believe in what we saw over the first two weeks of games. The DFS sites need to make these decisions as well with regard to their pricing. I’ve used my Simple Six column this week to identify six buy low opportunities, where the sites either overreacted, or did not react enough to the early season action.
1- Saquon Barkley, $6,000 on Fanduel DFS NFL
Saquon is priced as the RB19 on Fanduel the week after posting only 3.2 and 7.9 points in his first two games. Barkley’s underperformance should not be a surprise. It was expected. The Giants were very clear about the fact they were going to bring him along slowly coming off an ACL injury. Denver and then at Washington on 4 days rest were brutal matchups.
Barkley is facing a much softer defense in week 3, as Big Blue hosts the Atlanta Falcons with a full 10 days of rest. And he’s priced at only $100 more than Cordarrelle Patterson in the same game. MadnessDFS astutely points out that Saquon played 84% of the snaps against Washington on a short week.
He may get a bit chalky, but you may never see another chance to play Saquon Barkley, in a plus matchup, this cheap.
Sep 20, 2021; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Quintez Cephus (87) plays for the ball to make a one handed catch during the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
2-Quintez Cephus, $3,900 on DraftKings
Two weeks into the season Quintez Cephus, the second year Detroit Lion WR, has more DraftKings points than both A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf. Fantasy Football is strange game. While no one would expect this to continue, there is reason to believe that Cephus will remain fantasy relevant.
Cephus is mispriced because he played in the Monday game and the 16.3 DK points he posted against GB were not factored in. His teammate TJ Hockenson (5,200) is too cheap at TE for the same reason. The Lions are 7.5 point home dogs against Baltimore. Detroit will likely have to throw to keep up. The extremely athletic Cephus seems to have earned the trust of QB Jared Goff. At only $3,900 he doesn’t need to do much to provide value.
3- Kyle Pitts, $4,900 on DraftKings
I am life long NY Giants fan. It seems they’ve given up at least one touchdown to a tight end every week since Lawrence Taylor retired. This may not be entirely correct, but it is at least true in 2021. In the first two weeks they were victimized by likes of Albert Okwuegbunam and Ricky Seals-Jones.
Pitts, the massively hyped rookie, busted as chalk week 1, and posted a solid/unspectacular 12.3 DK points against Tampa in week. I will be sure to check his ownership on our Chalk Report and Domination Station later in the week, but it feels like Pitts could fly a bit under the radar. Kelce and Waller will always garner ownership, as will Gronk after his red hot start. We’ve already discussed how TJ Hockenson is underpriced.
I believe this is the week Kyle Pitts scores his first NFL touchdown and I will be overweight at this discounted price and hopefully reduced ownership.
See if Ffootballgeek agrees in “The Gameplan,” a DFS and sportsbetting podcast covering all the key plays to Week 3 in the NFL!
4- Clyde Edwards-Helaire, $4,800 on NFL DraftKings
It would be hard for things to get much lower for CEH. He’s losing most of his pass down work, his fumble in primetime likely cost KC the game, and he’s now the same price as Jeremy McNichols on DraftKings. If you didn’t know that Jeremy McNichols was a running back on the Tennessee Titans, I don’t blame you. You problem don’t need to.
Edwards-Helaire has been the talk of the DFS community this week as the price seems to have dropped too low for many to resist. I can see the logic in wanting to blindly smash the starting running back for the Kansas City Chiefs as 6.5 point home favorites in a game with an 54.5 point total. This is another situation where I will be glued to the DFS Army ownership tools when deciding my CEH exposure. If he does turn out to be chalky, I’ll eat it in cash but look for leverage in tournaments. We’ve seen a lot of chalk bust so far in this short season, and CEH is certainly not too talented join that group.
5- Javonte Williams, $4,900 Draftkings and $5,800 on Fanduel
I touted Williams in this column last week and he disappointed with only 8.4 DK/7.9 FD points. I am willing to double down in an even better matchup as a 10 point home favorite against the terrible Jets. The volume has been there for Williams getting 27 total rushes in his first two games. I’m willing to bet he finally finds the end-zone against Gang Green. It also helps that Williams is a direct pivot to the potential CEH chalk. If Javonte manages to outscore CEH at quarter of the ownership you find yourself in a very advantageous position in GPPs.
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6- Robert Woods, $5,700 on NFL DraftKings and $6,100 on Fanduel DFS
His teammate Cooper Kupp has probably been the best player in fantasy football over the first two weeks. Kupp should be popular again this week especially at only $6,800 on DraftKings. What if Todd Bowles and his Tampa Bay defense focus on shutting down Kupp after his dominant start? The man known as Bobby Trees could end being a useful GPP pivot. This perceived shootout, with 55.5 total is going to be stacked every which way by the field. If I’m going to try to be a little different, give me the 1,100k in price and likely 10% discount in ownership to Kupp that Woods provides.
I focused on the main slate this week, but the NFL action kicks off tonight with the sexiest of matchups, Davis Mills vs. Sam Darnold. The Geek has you covered with his always entertaining Showdown video. “Where My Turds At?” is really the only question in DFS worth answering. Give it a watch and then sign up for our VIP access to start building lineups with tournament winning upside.
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