When you are making your final lineup decisions it is essential to have good projections and ownership data, but I also think it important to note and look back at your initial gut instincts. This is a first look article where I highlight my early impressions of the NFL slate and DFS pricing. I am going to give you a quick six pack of leans that stood out to me in NFL week 2.
Sep 9, 2021; Tampa, Florida, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) is tackled by Tampa Bay Buccaneers line backer Shaquil Barrett (58) during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports
1- Dallas Cowboy NFL Games Shoot Out.
If week 1 taught us anything, it’s that not much has changed for America’s Team in the 11 months since Dak Prescott broke his ankle. With Dak under center they score a ton of points and their defense is more than willing to give them right back. In Dak’s last 6 starts (5 in 202o pre-injury and last week vs TB), Cowboy games have averaged a ridiculous total of 67.2 points.
I expect the fireworks to continue this week, indoors, on the fast track in LA. The top 3 WRs in this game, Keenan Allen (7,000), Amari Cooper (6,800), and Ceedee Lamb (6,400) all seem underpriced on DraftKings. I will be using our Chalk Board and Domination Station later in the week to get a better feel for how heavy each will be owned, but I certainly plan on having stacks involving all 3 elite pass catchers.
The running backs are also priced fairly in this 55 point total. Austin Ekeler is 7,300 and Zeke is only 6,200. Everyone watched Elliott bust on national TV last Thursday. That was to be expected against Tampa Bay, perhaps the best run defense in the league. I definitely want some exposure to Zeke in week 2 at a discounted price, and hopefully reduced ownership.
Mike Williams doesn’t get the consistent volume of Keenan Allen, but the big bodied downfield threat is always live for a TD or two. I believe he is significantly underpriced on Fanduel at 5,600, in a half point PPR format where touchdowns are king.
This game will probably get chalky, so use the all the DFS Army tools to monitor ownership. That said, this seem like an easy place to find raw points.
2- Green Bay is in a Perfect Spot to Bounce Back.
No team shit the bed harder than the Packers did in week 1, and no team is in a better spot to bounce back. Green Bay heads home to face their perennial whipping boy, the Detroit Lions. The Lions just gave up 36.9 DraftKings points to Deebo Samuel while losing their top DB Jeffrey Okudah for the season to a torn Achilles. Davonte Adams must be licking his chops. Aaron Jones is also a great bounce back candidate against a defense that allowed 104 rushing yards and a TD to rookie 6th round NFL draft pick Elijah Mitchell.
I bought a half point and locked in the Packers -10 as an early week bet. If you want professional betting advice, picks, and tracking, download the Sharp App now. Statsational and the crew crushed it week 1. This is the Monday night game, so DFS Army will have it covered from every possible angle for the Showdown slate. I want to watch and read our content before deciding exactly how to attack the game, but I am guessing there will be Packer onslaught entries in my future.
3- Javonte Williams is Too Cheap at 4,400 on DraftKings NFL DFS
Williams is priced at a 1,500 discount compared to his backfield partner Melvin Gordon. Gordon rushed for 101 yards on 11 carries against the Giants week 1, while Williams rushed for only 45 yards on 14 carries. Box score readers might fail to see that the majority of Gordon’s fantasy points came on one 70 yard TD run late in the 4th quarter against an exhausted New York defense. Prior to that late scamper, the rushing totals actually favored the rookie. Javonte Williams will likely continue to split the workload at near 50/50 clip with Gordan. In week 2 they face a Jacksonville defense that allow 110 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns to the dusty combo of Mark Ingram and Philip Lindsay.
Better RB value may emerge throughout the week, but as of now, I really like Williams’ upside relative to his cost.
4- Sterling Shepard Looks Like the Best Offensive NFL Player on the Giants
This is particularly relevant because the Giants travel to nation’s capital this week for the Thursday night game. Shepard was the only Giant offensive weapon to impress in week 1. The former Sooner ran quick decisive routes and look explosive after the catch, racking up 113 yards with a TD on 7 grabs. Shepard was the only receiver who seemed to have natural chemistry with QB Daniel Jones. This would make sense as free agent signee Kenny Golladay and first round pick Kadarius Toney both missed almost the entirety of training camp.
Chase Young and the other studs on the WFT defensive line will not give Jones much time to throw down the field. As a result, Shepard should get peppered with targets on quick underneath routes. He could be a somewhat sneaky captain on the Showdown slate.
5- Najee Harris is a Great Value on Fanduel at 6,100.
The highly touted Steeler rookie underperformed in Buffalo rushing for only 45 yards on 16 attempts and catching only 1 ball for 4 yards. I am more than willing to buy the dip, especially on Fanduel where at just 6,100, he is only the 16th highest priced NFL RB. Even if the production was not there, Harris was the only running back to take 100% of his teams snaps in week 1.
The Steelers are 5.5 point home favorites against a Raider team that will be traveling on a short week, after playing a draining overtime game verse the physical Ravens. We like to target running backs with guaranteed volume for teams that are home favorites. This is a much better spot for Najee Harris to showcase the talent that made him a first round pick.
6- Devonta Smith (5,400) Did Not Get Enough of a DFS Price Bump on Draftkings
Rookie wide receivers seemed underpriced across the board in week 1. Some of them were major busts (I’m looking at you Elijah Moore). Eagles rookie Devonta Smith was not one of the busts. He posted an efficient line of 6 grabs, on 8 targets, for 71 yards and a touch. He ran a route on all 39 of Jalen Hurts’ drop backs. Smith was drafted to be the number one target in Philly and has lived up that billing. I don’t think we will be seeing him priced in the 5k range for much longer this season.
The Eagles host San Francisco this week and the lazy assumption might be that the Niners are tough matchup. I don’t view it as such. The game has a 50 point total. The Niners just allowed 338 passing yards to Jared Goff (granted much was in garbage time), and they are now without their best corner. It was announced recently that Jason Verrett will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL.
The San Francisco offense with score on the Eagles and Hurts will have to throw to keep up. I like Smith to build on his solid debut and outperform his reasonable DraftKings salary.
It was a exciting first week of NFL action and hopefully we can use what we learned to turn a bigger profit in week 2. You can get a the Geek’s First Look thoughts on the slate in this video. MadnessDFS gets deep into the matchups in his weekly game by game breakdown.
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