Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/20:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Robbie Ray
- Huascar Ynoa
- Nestor Cortes Jr.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-125) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Rays – Shane Baz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Baz is getting the call up in a tough spot but he’s yet another player they received from the Pirates in that Archer trade. He has some impressive stuff so it will be very interesting to see his performance. Ray has a shot to slide ahead of Cole with a solid outing today as Cole was lit up by the Indians yesterday. We know that TB can strike out a bit against LHPs and the lineup hasn’t had much success against him in their careers.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-180)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Dillon Peters
Reds – Vladimir Gutierrez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Peters has been pitching good enough to not be somebody we want to pick on plus the Reds can struggle a bit against LHPs. Gutierrez will probably draw ownership just because of his opponent but I don’t really love it. He’s flashes some ability but that was earlier in his debut season as he’s kind of settled into a 5th starter type role. Castellanos needs to wake up for this CIN team and hopefully that happens at home, against an LHP.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Yoshi Tsutsugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against LHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-216) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Tigers – Matt Manning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Manning has been pitching much better of late but he still isn’t somebody that I am going to avoid bats against. Rodon has been dealing with some shoulder issues over the last month or so and it’s forced the White Sox to go with a 6-man rotation. He is in a plus spot but he has had his struggles with Cabrera. The White Sox should be fairly popular from a stacking perspective.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Romy Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies (-190)
Pitchers:
Orioles – John Means
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Phillies are in a battle right now and they need to come out and sweep this series with Baltimore. Means obviously has a no-hitter this season and he’s capable of shutting just about anybody down. Suarez has actually impressed me a bit and is finally getting some length to his starts. There are a few guys in this game with solid numbers against LHPs so stacks should intrigue us at somewhat lower ownership.
BAL 5-star plays: Austin Hays
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against LHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Freddy Galvis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
Washington Nationals (-111) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Zimmerman has taken Luzardo deep twice already over the last few weeks so we might as well call the trifecta, right? I am a huge fan of Luzardo but he has some things to work on and I think the Nats top half is a great stack for today. Fedde has been a solid arm and has upside against the young Marlins lineup.
WSH 5-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Sanchez, Lewin Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
Houston Astros (-213) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Angels – Jaime Barria
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I love the match-up for Valdez but I hate that he had to be scratched last Thursday due to a cut on his left index finger. That’s a pretty important finger for an LHP so I do have some concerns. With that said, I think he’s squarely in play as your SP1 on DK and is always a strong play on FD due to his ability to pitch deep into games. The Astros have a bunch of guys that have destroyed Barria in their careers.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
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Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics (-153)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Tyler Anderson
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Manaea needs to step it up for the A’s down the stretch. While he has had some rough starts in the 2nd half, he has absolutely dominated SEA this season, allowing just 1 in 16 innings with 21 strikeouts. Anderson hasn’t been very good on the road with SEA so this feels like a really tough spot for him to do much. Seattle is in a battle for the 2nd wild card spot and I think they start having short leashes on SPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Tom Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against LHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Yan Gomes, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
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Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees (-255)
Pitchers:
Rangers – AJ Alexy
Yankees – Nestor Cortes Jr.
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. My boy Sexy Alexy gets a tough match-up with the Yankees but it’s one that offers some upside with K’s. He’s definitely a GPP play for us but one that is set to be very volatile. Cortes has been throwing the ball well and is coming off of an impressive 11 K performance. He gets a great match-up with a struggling TEX offense and should be considered one of the better SP options tonight.
TES 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Braves – Huascar Ynoa
D’Backs – Humberto Mejia
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Rojas, Ketal Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers (-195)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jake Woodford
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This series is going to be a ton of fun to watch as the Cardinals are rolling right now while the Brewers have clinched a postseason spot. Peralta has been dealing with some arm issues but looked strong in his last start while the MIL offense hasn’t been world-beaters. The total is one that invites us to use the SPs but I actually think we could see something like 5-4 or 6-4 as the final score.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians – Game 1
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this is a 7-inning game.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Michael Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians – Game 2
Pitchers:
Royals – Carlos Hernandez
Indians – Logan Allen
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this is a 7-inning game.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against LHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- Atlanta Braves
- Toronto Blue Jays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Ryan Zimmerman, Washington
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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