Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/18:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Corbin Burnes
- Lance McCullers Jr
- Daulton Jefferies
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Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays (-172)
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We might get a smash game from the Blue Jays after they let everybody down against Pineda on Friday. Despite the team letting us down, Vladdy still did Vladdy things. The Twins got to Ryu fairly quickly with HRs and while Matz throws a bit harder, he isn’t as difficult as a guy like Ryu is. I could see this game being the one to stack up for GPP purposes.
MIN 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Jake Lamb
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-190) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Max Scherzer
Reds – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I was honestly shocked to see this game at an 8 as I would have bet that it would have opened at 7.5. Scherzer has thrust himself into the Cy Young debate with his second half while Gray has the ability to shut anybody down on any given day. The Dodgers bats were silenced big time by Luis Castillo on Friday and we know how important this series is. Only looking at one-offs from this game as far as bats go, despite it being in a great hitting ballpark.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-216) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Rangers – Spencer Howard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. If the Rangers keep doing this Howard-Alexy thing I am going to get really annoyed. They keep saying they believe that Howard is an SP (while I agree, he isn’t ready) but they are limiting him to more of a 3-inning role to start. Alexy had two great traditional starts and then was blown up coming in as a bulk-reliever in his last appearance. I just don’t get why you mess with a good thing. On the White Sox side, we have to love a lot about them, including Lynn.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
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Philadelphia Phillies (-115) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Carrasco has been absolutely brutal when pitching at home this season while Nola has been at his worst when on the road. When you add those two things together, I am not quite sure how this has the lowest total on the day. Nola does have 24 Ks in 14.1 innings against the Mets this season. Some of the Mets bats have a decent history against Nola while the top of the Phillies lineup is where we want to attack Carrasco.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals (-115)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Both Corbin and Freeland are capable of being strong fantasy performers but at this point, I think the most likely outcome is that they give up a bunch of hits with a few HRs. Both guys could finish with a respectable line but still give up 4 runs each. I actually like a COL stack against Corbin but mostly as a mini-(3-man)stack. Juan Soto is ALWAYS a strong play as he hits LHPs perfectly fine while Zimmerman offers us a ton of power.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against LHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics (-130) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Athletics – Daulton Jefferies
Angels – Jose Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Jefferies has plenty of upside in his arm but we need to try and learn what kind of a pitch count he might be on as he hasn’t gone more than 54 pitches this month. Suarez has had a couple of solid starts recently and while I really believe in hot stretches for pitching, I think the A’s end up beating him up early in this one. Olson is approaching 20 HRs against LHPs this season and he does have one against Suarez.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Josh Harrison
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (-260)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Zac Lowther
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. Pivetta is 3-0 against BAL this season and he is averaging 20 DK ppg in those 3 starts. While I think there’s a ton of merit in Pivetta, based on that info, I kind of like a mini-stack from BAL along with a full stack from the BOS side as the total is massive. Lowther has faced BOS just once this season and allowed 7 runs on 7 hits in 2.1 innings, enough said.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Bobby Dalbec, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros (-260)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Humberto Castellanos
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. People are going to continue to be on the Astros and I don’t blame them at all. The offense keeps finding themselves in plus spots, with guys that can definitely rake at the plate. They have had a team ISO of .205 over the last week. McCullers is in a smash spot against a rather weak ARI lineup but the D’Backs did welcome back Kole Calhoun this week. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We might have the Rays in a sneaky good spot here. Now you might ask why I think that because Skubal looked good against them recently and the Rays can struggle against LHPs. Well, the reason is that the Tigers appear to be limiting Skubal as the season winds down. Despite throwing the ball well, he has been held to just 3 innings and around 50 pitches in his last 2 starts. Yarbrough has been smacked around hard in his last 2 outings so while the Tigers are an easier match-up, I am not sure we can trust him.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners (-121) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am very intrigued by the offenses in this game. I would say that I am a little more intrigued by KC but that’s tough because Kikuchi is better than Bubic is at this point. Bubic did allow 13 baserunners in 4.1 innings against Seattle earlier this season while Kikuchi allowed 4 runs against KC. Merrifield-Perez will end up one of my top 2-man stacks in my builds on this slate.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
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Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees (-190)
Pitchers:
Indians – Aaron Civale
Yankees – Luis Gil
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. If we can get Gil to avoid walks against a struggling CLE offense, we could see one of his upside games. He has all sorts of arm talent but he’s been pretty erratic so far. Civale isn’t anybody that should excite us and the Yankees NEED to absolutely wake up at the plate so I think they go on a bit of an HR binge over the next 2+ weeks.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Brett Gardner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins (-130)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Bryse Wilson
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. It’s really tough to write about this series as I have very little interest in it. There are a few bats that I think make sense but I also think both SPs make sense from a GPP standpoint. Wilson is somebody I always used when he was with ATL because I believe in his ability while Cabrera is one of the Marlins top SP prospects but he hasn’t shown the strikeout ability at the MLB level yet.
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Ben Gamel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants (-130)
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Giants – Alex Wood
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I was watching the end of this game on Friday night as I got started with most of this article and all I have to say is what a walk-off swing by Kevin Gausman! Yeah, that’s right, an SP had to PH in extra’s to drive in the winning run. Morton has been really solid on the road this season but this Giants team just keeps hitting HRs and it’s not just a couple of guys, as it’s spread throughout their lineup and even the bench. Wood has been out for a bit so he probably only goes 4-ish innings. The Braves could be a low-owned stack against him.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against LHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 against RHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (-295)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Justin Steele
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Burnes is in an absolute smash spot and I think some shy away slightly because they keep picking SPs against the Cubs and getting burned. DO NOT let that thought keep you away from Burnes as he has 25 Ks in 14 innings against the Cubs this season while allowing 0 runs and just 6 hits. He is coming in off of 2 extra days of rest so I will be going overweight, even at his elevated price tag. Steele has been decent enough against MIL that I don’t need to stack against him but I don’t mind a couple of MIL bats.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Frank Schwindel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: Luis Urias
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against LHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ St Louis Cardinals (-135)
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. San Diego absolutely needs Darvish to figure it out if they have any shot at ending up in the postseason. He has an ERA of 6.33 away from SD this season and that’s not a good thing to see heading into a match-up with a hot STL squad (ISO of .208 in September). Wainwright is one of those guys that just shows up in difficult match-ups and when you add in that this start is at home, you get somebody that could be a strong option in our GPP lineups.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against RHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Chicago White Sox
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jonathan Schoop, Detroit
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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