Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/14:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Gerrit Cole
- Jesus Luzardo
- Anthony DeSclafani
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays (-130)
Pitchers:
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Blue Jays may never score less than 8 runs ever again! I am kidding, I think. Toronto’s bats are just rolling at the plate and Rasmussen (no relation, I don’t believe) is in some trouble today. Berrios has been strong of late and we just saw the TB offense struggle against Manoah on Monday night.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 against RHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds (-157) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Reds – Wade Miley
Pirates – Dillon Peters
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Reds can struggle against LHPs but they do have a couple of guys at the top of the order that can hit them. I actually think PIT has a sneaky mini-stack, projected to be at the top of their order, against Miley. This game isn’t on the main slates but don’t overlook it in the All Day slates. Castellanos has always mashed LHPs and today is probably no different.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against LHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 against LHPs this season.
Houston Astros (-203) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Astros – Zack Greinke
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I was shocked to see that a handful of Rangers have had success against Greinke in their careers. On the other side, HOU bats have had plenty of success against Lyles and they are also pretty hot at the plate. They went off last night and they’ve been putting the bat on the ball extremely well over the last week to 10 days. I just can’t trust Greinke enough to rely on him but he probably could be in play as an SP2 on DK.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: Adolis Garcia
4-star plays: DJ Peters, Nick Solak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against RHPs this season.
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St Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets (-145)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jake Woodford
Mets – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Goldschmidt continues to be hot in the second half for the Cardinals and now he gets a pitcher that he has hit very well in his career. Outside of Goldschmidt, the Cardinals don’t have a ton to like against Stroman so maybe he ends up a sneaky option on this slate. I am not sure what to think of Woodford as we just don’t know what Mets offense will show up in this game after they struggled with Wainwright on Monday night.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves (-172)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Jon Gray
Braves – Touki Toussaint
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Toussaint has upside and now he faces the Rockies away from Coors. I believe he’s a very intriguing GPP option tonight. The Braves bats can explode at any point and Gray hasn’t been as strong on the road as he has been at home this season. his WHIP is over 1.50 on the road and that’s a dangerous number against this Braves squad that has patience and poweer.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brendan Rodgers, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Angels – Packy Naughton
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Leury Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox (-135) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Mariners – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Both SPs should make your player pool tonight, especially on DK. Eovaldi has been solid and should offer us a decent floor against Seattle while Anderson gets the Red Sox at a pretty decent time while also being able to limit guys like Devers, Schwarber, and Verdugo. The Red Sox are definitely better against RHPs while the Mariners have been better against LHPs this season. Seager and Kike Hernandez are two bats that intrigue me the most in this game.
BOS 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Seager
4-star plays: Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-245)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Luke Weaver
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Weaver has looked decent in his return from a lengthy IL stint while Gonsolin has been ok in his return. Gonsolin gets the better match-up by far as a handful of Dodgers bats have hit Weaver extremely well. We definitely need to get Dodgers stacks into our builds tonight as I probably end up with them in my top 4 on the main slate.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Corey Seager
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Gavin Lux
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (-190) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Tigers – Wily Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get some Peralta on Peralta crime here as Wily takes on the team that he made his MLB debut with. Freddy has struggled with a shoulder issue over the last month-plus and while he gets a great match-up, I just can’t trust him as the Brewers should be focused on limiting him in order to preserve his arm for the postseason. Cabrera is super hot at the plate while the top part of the Brewers lineup intrigues me.
MIL 5-star plays: Kolten Wong
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics (-157) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Royals – Jackson Kowar
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Kowar is struggling at the MLB level and I think the A’s take advantage of his control issues. When you allow a ton of baserunners, you put yourself in some danger for big innings. The A’s have a combination of patience and power that feels like a huge task for Kowar. Montas has been really solid and he should continue that against a Royals lineup that is pretty weak in the bottom half. Merrifield has hit Montas pretty well in his career while Matt Olson is going to end up my Dinger of the Day call.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 against RHPs this season.
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Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins (-121) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Indians – Triston McKenzie
Twins – Joe Ryan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest. I love both of the pitchers in this game but it’s tough to ignore how well Polanco has been swinging the bat for the Twins. I could see the Twins resting Buxton for Game 1 and then relying on his history against Logan Allen in Game 2.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Myles Straw, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins – Game 2
Pitchers:
Indians – Logan Allen
Twins – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this game is a 7-inning contest.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Myles Straw, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against LHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against LHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (-153)
Pitchers:
Padres – Jake Arrieta
Giants – Anthony DeSclafani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Arrieta is in trouble against the power of the Giants tonight. DeSclafani shouldn’t be in a great spot but the Padres offense just isn’t performing this season. He just needs to avoid that Fernando Tatis Jr guy and he probably finishes with a strong performance at what should be lower ownership (people see the SD team name and become afraid). The problem with the Giants is that their production is spread out and just about anybody could be the main part of the stack tonight.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Evan Longoria, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 against RHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies (-203)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Adrian Sampson
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Gibson needs to step up for the Phillies as they battle for a postseason spot. He should be in a plus spot but the Cubs have flashed some power over the last month that has been really surprising. Bryce Harper continues to destroy baseballs and he pairs extremely well with Segura to make an excellent mini-stack and one that I might force in whenever I get a chance tonight.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Robinson Chirinos, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Brad Miller
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees (-330) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Orioles – Alexander Wells
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Cole left his last start while struggling and it was said to be a hamstring issue. I hate relying on a guy who left his last start with a leg thing as a pitcher’s core is just as important and potentially more important than their arm. With that said, he does have a great match-up as he has been dominant much of the 2nd half. I could see the Yankees wake up a bit on offense against Wells after they scored 6 runs late against MIN on Monday.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- San Francisco Giants
- Oakland Athletics
MLB Dinger of the Day – Matt Olson, Oakland
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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