Are you ready for some 2021 NFL fantasy football? If not, we are going to get you ready. There is a two game NFL preseason slate DFS slate this Thursday night. Our man CashKeg broke it down position by position in this great, free video. I’ve also done Summer Stock Reports on five divisions. If you missed any, click that link and get caught up! Today, though, we get up to speed on all the news and noise coming out of AFC West division.
Jan 24, 2021; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) before the AFC Championship Game against the Buffalo Bills at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
I am using Underdog ADP when referenced. Their giant $5 Puppy 2 Best Ball Tournament, with 100k up top, is already 95% full. We have an awesome offer for a free month of DFS Army VIP access if you want to get in there before it’s too late.
Kansas City Chiefs
What can you say about the Chiefs? The are the best offense in NFL. They have the best quarterback. Travis Kelce is the best TE. Tyreek Hill is easily a top 5 receiver. Their only weakness was the offensive line. They added Orlando Brown, Joe Thuney, and 2nd round pick Creed Humphrey to fix that problem. So why am I essentially underweight on every Chief not name Byron Pringle? The simple answer is the cost.
Kelce and Hill both go in the mid to late first round, as they should. They are safe picks with obvious upside. That said, I’m not getting a ton of Kelce because I prefer Kittle a full two rounds later, or Hockenson 5 or 6 rounds later. Now that Aaron Rodgers is back in camp I have Hill as my 3rd WR, behind Adams and Diggs. I am not trying to avoid Kelce or Hill, but in most drafts there is someone willing to take them at least a pick or two before I am.
Mahomes certainly deserves to be the first QB off the board, aside from the rare drafts where I’m completing a Kelce/Hill stack, his ADP of 35.4 is a little rich for my blood. Give me the 30 spot discount of Dak (ADP 65.5) or the 20 pick saving on Lamar at 54.8.
Mecole Hardman has yet live up the hype and attention that he receives in the fantasy community. In his first two seasons, he amassed only 526 and 560 receiving yards. However, he is still only 23-years-old and it feels like year 3 could finally be his breakout. Hardman has been lighting up camp and drafters are taking notice. He currently has an 8th round (86.5) ADP. Earlier in the draft season he could be regularly taken in the 9th or 10 round. I still feel like there is upside at this price if he can establish himself as the third target in the KC attack. Byron Pringle has also impressed in camp could be a value in the last couple rounds of your draft.
Anyone who jumped the shark on CEH last season, picking him in the 1st round was massively disappointed in his rookie campaign. Dave Kluge of FootballGuys does a good job making the case to give him a second chance. Edwards-Helaire’s 23.5 ADP puts him dead in the middle of the 2/3 turn. He has the ability to outperform that draft slot, but you have to consider the opportunity cost of passing up players like Justin Jefferson, Ceedee Lamb, and George Kittle who are going in the same range.
LA Chargers
Justin Herbert’s fantasy ADP (81.8) seems to be slipping and I can’t see a good reason for why. In my most recent NFL drafts he’s going in the 8th and occasionally as late as the 9th round. The former Oregon Duck threw a record 31 touchdown passes on his way to securing the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. His situation should only improve in year two. The Chargers reinforced their offensive line, drafting Rashawn Slater early in the first round and signing former Packer center Corey Linsley. The new head coach is McVay disciple Brandon Staley. Joe Lombardi (Sean Payton’s former righthand man) will be calling plays on offense. This should be a significant upgrade from the comically bad decision making of Anthony Lynn.
No one would be shocked if either Austin Ekeler or Keenan Allen led their respective positions in pass receptions. You certainly have to pay of this production in drafts. Ekeler has an ADP of 11.7, while Allen is going at pick 25.8. I love this offense as whole, and like both of these players, but prefer to get my expose to them in full point PPR formats. Their ADP is essentially the same on Underdog and Draftkings, why not get double the points for all their short range grabs?
The man getting the most buzz out of Charger practice in big Mike Williams. He has seen his draft stock rise since Lombardi told the Athletic that Williams would play the X receiver, the position that Michael Thomas occupied in New Orleans. The article quoted Lombardi as saying, “If I were a betting man, I’d bet on nice numbers coming from him on the stat sheet, that’s for sure.” If Mike Williams can manage to stay of the field he should smash, relative to his 7th round ADP.
Denver Broncos
It scares me a bit that I’ve drafted a lot of the Broncos skill position players and I don’t know who their starting quarterback will be week one. Neither option is particularly appealing. Will it be the erratic, turnover prone Drew Lock or the conservative, weak armed Teddy Two Gloves? With these uninspiring options at QB, it would make sense for old school, defensive minded coach, Vic Fangio to lean on the run. The early reports on both their primary backs have been positive.
The Broncos traded up in 2nd round to select Javonte Williams out of North Carolina. Some NFL draft analysts had Williams as the number one RB on their board. It was widely assumed that would mark the end of Melvin Gordon’s time, or at least relevance in Denver. Gordon has apparently looked great in camp and is expected to handle the majority of the pass down work. I could see this being the type of situation where the veteran handles the larger share of the spilt early in the season, but the rookie comes on late and is a huge factor in the fantasy playoffs. I have no problem taking either at their current ADP (69.0 for Williams and 111.3 for Gordon) in differing roster constructions.
The Denver pass catchers all seem to slip a bit best ball drafts because no one knows who to stack them with. Analytics Twitter can’t quit Cortland Sutton, who is good during the rare times he’s healthy. I am more willing to invest in the immaculate route running of Jerry Jeudy or freakish athleticism of Noah Fant. Both offer similar upside to Sutton without the injury history.
There are worse last round fliers than speedy second year WR K.J. Hamler. Justin Herzig does not win the Best Ball Mania tournament last season on Underdog without a spike week from Hamler.
Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs is the RB 22 with a current ADP of 58.4. I’ve seen him last into the 7th round. It is starting to feel like the hate has gone to far the 23-year-old who has rushed for over 1000 yards in each of his first two NFL season. Still, I don’t find myself ever actually taking him when put to the decision in a draft. I do find myself often taking the nearly 75 spot discount on his backup Kenyon Drake, whose ADP is 132.0. Drake is expected to be heavily involved in Raider passing attack and has proven reliable in the redzone, rushing for 10 TDs last season as a Cardinal. I like taking Drake as a 4th RB who I know will have a weekly role.
Darren Waller sat out a recent string of practices for undisclosed reasons. There doesn’t seem to be much concern from the coaching staff, or drafters as Waller still going in the late 2nd round (22.3). The Raider TE is viable in all formats, but I prefer taking him on full point PPR sites like DraftKings. Waller gets paid on volume. He totaled a remarkable 107 grabs in 2020.
With the success of Justin Jefferson, Ceedee Lamb, Tee Higgins, and company, it’s hard to believe that Henry Ruggs was actually the first WR taken in the 2020 draft. Ruggs will likely never live up to his draft status, but the doesn’t mean that 4.27 speedster can’t return value relative to where he’s being picked in the 9th round of fantasy drafts. According the the Las Vegas Review Ruggs has added 12 pounds to his 6’1″ frame in offseason. The added bulk could help him better deal with the physicality of NFL DBs. The departure of Nelson Agholor should increase the snaps and targets for Ruggs, a player that Raiders desperately want to feature, given the draft capital they have invested in him.
Never one for hyperbole, Jon Gruden compared Bryan Edwards to Terrell Owens. A Raiders beat reporter countered with comparison to Randy Moss. I was getting some Edwards shares earlier in the draft season before these crazy quotes caused his ADP to spike. The second year pro, with 11 total catches to his name is now going in the 11th round.
We will head to the AFC North next week to continue to our Summer Stock Report series. In the meantime, enjoy the first multigame DFS slates of the NFL preseason. We’ve got you covered with projections in our custom optimizer, cheat sheets, and an unbeatable deal using the promo code “PRESEASON.” Every sport, every tool, access to every coach for 50% off your 1st month….10% off every month thereafter!!
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