NFL Fantasy Football 2021 Primer- Summer Stock Report- AFC South

Ready or not the NFL is back!  Training camps are in full swing. There is a preseason game with showdown slate to fire at tonight (you should see our coverage!). DFS Army has put in the work to get you up speed. We’ve already ripped through each NFC division in Summer Stock Report series. You can catch up on any you may have missed here. This week we focus on the AFC South, where ankle surgeries are the topic of the day.

I am using Underdog ADP when referenced. If you aren’t already drafting in their best ball contests, we have an awesome offer for a free month of DFS Army VIP access when you try them out.

NFL Summer Stock Reports – AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

The news broke recently that Carson Wentz elected to get surgery on his injured foot that will keep him out of NFL games a vague 5-12 weeks. If that wasn’t bad enough, it was soon revealed Quinton Nelson (arguably the best offensive lineman in the league) has a similar injury that carries the same 5-12 week timeline. Are foot injuries contagious in Indy? Did the Colts get a two for one deal on the surgeries?

Wentz was essentially being drafted only as a third QB in best ball or super flex. Now, it’s an easy call to fade him completely. Second year, 4th round draft pick out of Washington University, Jacob Eason will have the initial crack at the starting job. The 6’6”, 231 pound Eason is a traditional drop back passer, who brings no rushing upside.

Indianapolis seems determined take a couple weeks to get a look at Eason and a better feel for Wentz’ timeline.  If things go poorly, veterans like Nick Foles, Marcus Mariota, or even Jimmy Garoppolo could be options via trade.

The NFL market has reacted quickly to these injuries. Jonathan Taylor has seen his ADP drop a full round from the late 1st to the late 2nd. This drop seems fair. I definitely would not take him above the elite receivers like Adams, Hill, Diggs, or Ridley. I’ve also moved JT firmly behind Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, and Antonio Gibson, the other RBs going in that range.

Michael Pittman was the one Colt receiver I was actively targeting before the Wentz/Nelson news.  He is still going relatively high at pick 101.9.  I now prefer Elijah Moore, Rashod Bateman, Henry Ruggs who are all going later.  I was pretty much fading the old T.Y. Hilton and unproved Parris Campbell before the injuries and will continue to do so.

 

Houston Texans

This franchise is a dumpster fire, meets a train wreck, mixed with a car crash.  They have their 30 million dollar franchise QB taking snaps at scout team safety because he showed up to camp to collect his checks and they don’t know what to do with him.

I essentially want no part of the Texans offense for fantasy purposes in 2021.  I can understand the thought process behind taking Brandon Cooks at a reasonable ADP of 88.4, but if this team is 1-10 are the even going to continue to run him out there?  Give me Will Fuller or Mecole Hardman, who are gong in the exact same range.

You could do worse than Philip Lindsay as a 4/5th RB in the 16 round.  If dusty David Johnson falters, Lindsay should get enough touches to be a value at that price.  The most interesting Texan is NFL rookie WR Nico Collins. The third round pick out of Michigan is 6’4′ and runs a 4.43.  He has been impressive in camp and has less competition for targets than most receivers going in the 17/18th round of drafts.

Tennessee Titans

When to draft the Big Dog, Derrick Henry, is the big question when considering the Tennessee Titans.  If you want the safety/floor that Henry provides, you’re going to have to pay for it.  He has an ADP of 3.8 on Underdog.  If you are just trying to win your season long league and beat 12 players, I see no problem in taking Henry 3rd overall.  In the big best ball tournaments, where you have to outlast over 100,00o other rosters, he’s not for me.  Even in a season where he ran for 2027 yards and scored 17 touchdowns, he was only the RB3.  His fantasy ceiling is capped by his complete lack of involvement in the passing game.  I believe Kamara and Zeke have access to a NFL ceiling that isn’t there for Henry.

There is no need to worry about A.J. Brown’s involvement in the passing game.  Brown has been extremely efficient in his first two seasons.  Year three is when wide receivers tend to break out.  I believe the addition of Julio Jones is a positive for Brown.  Jones will draw the attention of the defense and Brown will see less double teams.  AJB currently has an ADP of 20.2, but I’ve often seen him last until the 2/3 turn.  McCaffrey, plus Brown and one other elite weapon (Waller, Kittle, Justin Jefferson) is a pretty nice beginning to a roster.  I thank the fantasy football gods whenever I start a draft from the 1.1 position.

I love Julio for the production of the Tennessee NFL offense as a whole, but I’m not taking him at his 38.2 ADP.  The 32-year-old is the the Anthony Davis of the NFL.  He’s awesome when he plays, but you are constantly worried about him limping out of the game with some nagging injury.  I’ve a taken a couple Julio shares in the rare cases when he falls to the 5th round, but mostly I am a fade.

The Julio signing caused significant drop in the price tight end Anthony Firkser.  He is currently the TE 19, with a ADP of  162.3.  I really like Firkser as my second TE has this price, especially has the third piece of a stack with Brown and Tannehill.  Tennessee doesn’t really have a WR3 that projects to see a lot of targets and Firkser is comfortable running routes out of the slot.  The Julio addition should not hurt his production nearly as much as his fantasy draft position indicates.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

It is a new day in Duval County with Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence on board.  Laviska Shenault has been the star of camp according to the beat reporters, but old man Marvin Jones might provide the best value. With a new QB and a new NFL coaching staff in place, we really don’t know how the targets are going to be distributed. I’ll take Jones (113.8) over D.J. Chark (71.1) at an over 40 spot discount in ADP, every day.

The running back situation in Jacksonville is equally tricky to handicap. James Robinson had 1,100 total yards and 10 TDs as an undrafted rookie last season. In spite of this production, the Jaguars used a first round pick on Travis Etienne. Carlos Hyde is also on the roster and is a favorite of his former college coach Urban Meyer. Robinson (ADP 100.0) is going significantly later the rookie Etienne (56.7).

I’ve been taking some James Robinson at this depressed price on Underdog (half PPR) in builds which I wait on RB. I’m getting my exposure to Etienne on full PPR sites (like DraftKings). The former Clemson star has has been taking NFL reps at WR as well RB. This versatility and chemistry with Lawrence should make him a better play in full PPR formats.

We will continue our tour of the AFC next week, but there is no better time to sign up for the full DSF Army VIP access than. We’ve got cheat sheets and projection in our domination station for tonight’s Hall of Fame Game. Sign up now with the promo code preseason and get 50% off. Imagine shipping a NFL showdown GPP on August 5th. We’ll give you the best tools to try!