We are barely over two weeks away from actual NFL action. If you need an appetizer to hold you over to until the main course, there is a pretty interesting Showdown slate tonight with Trevor Lawrence and the Jags traveling to New Orleans to take on the Saints. CashKeg breaks it down in this quick video. We also have cheat sheets and projections for the game available to VIP members.
Today we finish up our Summer Stock Report series with one of the best divisions in the league, the NFL AFC North division. If you’ve missed any time of the previous installments, there’s plenty of time to catch up.
As always, I am using Underdog ADP when referenced. Their Best Ball Mania II Tournament with one million and one dollar to first is 75% full. We have an awesome offer for a free month of DFS Army VIP access if you want to get in there before it fills.
Aug 12, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) carries the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase has seen his ADP take a fairly significant drop in the last couple weeks. He was going consistently in the 4th round and occasionally in the late 3rd. He is now regularly drafted in the 5th, sometimes slipping into the 6th. The reasoning behind this fall is to me, absurd. Chase had 3 drops in a preseason game verse Washington. He also had two drops in practice. Are we really putting this much stock in one quarter of a meaningless game with the backup QB and, que the Allen Iverson GIFs, practice? This seems like the type of overreactive logic that led people to believe that Bisi Johnson was starting over Justin Jefferson last year.
I choose to trust in the talent, draft capital (5th overall) and buy the dip. After opting out of the 2020 season Chase may need a few weeks to knock the rust off. Ja’Marr Chase produced 1780 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns in only 14 games as true sophomore at LSU. I am willing bet they he and the QB that threw him all those tuddys will figure it out.
Just because I am buying Chase, it does not mean that I am passing on Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd. I think the Bengals will throw the ball enough support all three of their starting receivers relative to their ADP. The news out of camp has been nothing but positive on Higgins (ADP 46.1). Boyd (ADP 68.0) can be had at a discount relative to his two teammates. I prefer to get my exposure to the reliable slot receiver on full point PPR sites.
If I’m drafting all three Bengal receivers, you’d think I must be super high on Joe Burrow. I definitely have a decent amount of stacks with his WRs, but in a vacuum I prefer the QBs with rushing upside (Hurts, Lance, Fields) that go in his same range. Our season long guru Alan Seslowsky is a full fade on Burrow Sez is one of the sharpest minds in the industry. He has been constantly reminding us that Burrow tore both his ACL and MCL in week 11. The mobility that he showed as rookie and in his Heisman winning campaign will likely not be there, at least in the early part of this season. I do think Burrow will throw for enough yards to help his receivers make value, but his reluctance to run might cap his own ceiling as a fantasy asset.
Perhaps, I am holding a grudge after getting burned by Joe Mixon last year. I don’t find myself getting much of him at his 2nd round ADP of 19.8. I certainly get the bull case for him. He has a skill set to play every down and probably has less competition for touches than any back in the league. That said, when on the clock, I rarely pull the trigger and take him over players like DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and Antonio Gibson, who are going in the same range.
Pittsburgh Steelers
If you subscribe to the old adage that volume is king, Najee Harris may be the 2nd round pick for you. The Steelers drafted the Alabama workhorse 24th overall, intending to give him the ball early and often. His preseason usage has only served to confirm this plan. They even gave him 8 touches in the freaking Hall of Fame game. Harris is a power back who is also nimble in the pass game. The only real concern for Najee is the Steelers’ suspect offensive line. Gone are veterans Pouncy, Villanueva, and DeCastro. Pittsburg will need the youngsters slated to replace them to not be train wrecks.
I have been keeping it simple with regards to the Steeler receivers. I target Chase Claypool (ADP 52.0) in TD heavy half PPR formats, Dionte Johnson (ADP 47.6) in full PPR, and occasionally take the multi-round discount on JuJu (ADP 77.2) as a solid WR depth piece.
You would think a quarterback with three wide receivers going in the top 40 at the position would be drafted fairly high. This is definitely not that case with Big Ben. He is the QB 23 with an ADP of 179.0. Roethlisberger is going right in between David Carr and rookie Zack Wilson. Given that he is essentially free, I have no problem taking Ben as a 3rd QB in best ball or super flex, especially when stacking.
Unless you want to go all the way back to Mike Ditka (I don’t how many fantasy leagues he swung in 1961), the correct answer has pretty much always been to fade rookie tight ends. After the athletic rook out of Penn State Pat Freiermuth scored two first quarter touchdowns against the Lions, I am starting to buy in, at least a little bit. I’ve taken him in the very last round of a handful of best ball drafts, when I’ve missed out on other late round TE targets.
Cleveland Browns
It is weird to say, but the Cleveland Browns have one of the most balanced rosters in NFL. The perennial laughing stock has a implied Vegas win total of 10.5. In their first year under head coach Kevin Stefanski the Browns were the 4th most run heavy team in the league. Only Baltimore, New England, and Tennessee had a higher percentage of rushing plays.
There are reasons to believe Cleveland won’t be as run dominant in 2021. Those stats were a bit skewed, as the Browns played three games late in the season where the wind made it virtual impossible to pass and one with essentially their whole wide receiving room out due to Covid. They were also missing Odell Beckham for the majority of the season and Baker Mayfield was trying to learn a new system with no real offseason.
If I can’t trust the Browns to be as run heavy, I certainly can’t take Nick Chubb at his ADP of 14.9. I like to think about what type of season it would take for a player to make me regret not taking him. Derrick Henry was only 3rd in total points in full point PPR last season despite rushing for 2027 yards and scoring 17 touchdowns. As longs as Kareem Hunt is involved, I don’t see a scenario where I regret passing on Nick Chubb (who only had 16 receptions last year) in the late 1st/early 2nd round.
Expecting Cleveland to pass more, I am a buyer on Odell Beckham at his 5th round (56.2) ADP. I really like Odell when he falls to the 6th round, which I’ve seen happen on numerous occasions. This time of year I am mainly drafting in large field best ball tournaments, hence I am drafting for ceiling/upside. Could Odell bust again? Sure, but we know he has the upside to well outplay this price. Reports are that Beckham is fully healthy and his rehab went exceedingly well. Baker Mayfield, as QB 20 with an ADP of 155.2 makes for a very cheap stacking partner.
The player catching the most buzz out of Browns camp has been Donovan Peoples-Jones. The second year WR out of Michigan looks to have the inside track to a starting position on the outside, opposite of Beckham, while Jarvis Landry occupies the slot. Peoples-Jones was a five-star recruit, who never quit lived up to that billing at Michigan. The 22-year-old looks ready to make a leap and provide breakout potential at the end of drafts (ADP 189.9).
Baltimore Ravens
Everything from a fantasy perspective in Baltimore starts and ends with former MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson. Lamar rushed for over 1000 yards last season, yet was still a disappointment relative to where he was drafted. Jackson is going in the 5th round with an ADP of 57.6, roughly 30 spots later than where he was going in 2020.
Lamar looked primed to make a return to his 2019 MVP form, but it has been a rough preseason for his top receiving weapons. The draft community seemed to be almost unanimously high on their first round pick Rashod Bateman. Sadly, Bateman is now slated to miss 6-8 weeks after core muscle surgery. Hollywood Brown has not practiced in a month due to a hamstring issue. TE Mark Andrews had a scare last week in practice, but it turn out to be only a severe case of cramping. Andrews should be good to go for week one and if the receivers remain out, could see increased targets.
Lamar Jackson might have a ceiling second to only Patrick Mahomes at the position. With all the injuries to his receivers, it may take a few weeks before he really hits his stride.
Similar to Nick Chubb, J.K. Dobbins is an extremely talented runner of the football, who is hampered by his lack of involvement in the passing game. Dobbins averaged an outstanding 6.0 yards-per-carry as rookie, but caught only 18 balls. Dobbins has an ADP of 32.6, however I’ve been able to grab a few shares of him in 4th round recently as running backs having been slipping in the “RB dead zone,” rounds 3-6. The Raven that I have the most exposure to is their RB2, Gus Edwards. With an ADP of 121.9, you are getting a near 90 spot discount off Dobbins. The Gus Bus makes for an excellent 4th RB in best ball or managed formats at this price. He should have a consistent role every week that will help you navigate bye weeks and potential injuries.
I really appreciate everyone who has read any/all of these Summer Stock Reports. I’ve drafted a somewhat obscene amount of best ball teams this year and I hope I’ve used that experience to help you get a better feel for the market. DFS Army will continue to pump out great football content literally everyday of this season. Sign up for VIP access and start building that bankroll early with tonight’s showdown slate.
