The NFL season is getting so close that you smell the beer and wings. We are going to get you ready to dominate DFS Slates, your season long leagues, best ball tournaments, and just about any other fantasy football format you can think of. I am continuing my Summer Stock Report series this week with the AFC East. Next week we will finish up with the AFC North division. If you’ve missed any of the previous installments, they are conveniently listed here.
I am using Underdog ADP when referenced. They just launched a massive $5 Puppy 3 Best Ball Tournament, with 200k up top. It will fill fast. We have an awesome offer for a free month of DFS Army VIP access if you want to get in there before it’s too late.
Miami Dolphins
You don’t want to overreact to NFL preseason, especially the first game game, but it was not a good day for Miles Gaskin truthers. Surprisingly, Malcolm Brown started and played 16 of the 23 snaps with Tua, compared to only 7 for Gaskin. Brown also got the only 2 3rd down snaps and the only 2 inside the 5 yard line.
Brown certainly, didn’t light the world on fire, rushing for 9 yards on his 8 carries, but with an ADP of 194.3, his usage is certainly interesting. Gaskin is sure to see his current ADP of 69.2 drop. If he falls far enough, there could be an opportunity to buy the dip. I do continue to believe that he is the most talented back in Miami, but Brown and potentially Salvon Ahmed will likely cap his upside.
Tua disappointed as a rookie, especially compared to Justin Herbert who he was drafted a couple of spots earlier than. Legitimate excuses can be made for Tua’s first year struggles. He was coming off a major hip surgery. He had no preseason games or in-person OTAs. He was constantly looking over his shoulder, waiting to be pulled for Fitzpatrick. Once Parker got hurt he had no dynamic receivers to throw to.
None of those impediments are present for Tua in 2021. All reports are that he is healthy and has a better mastery of the NFL playbook. Ryan Fitzpatrick is in DC. Waddle and Will Fuller should be significant upgrades to the wide receiver core.
I like Tua as a QB 2 or 3 in best ball and super flex at his prices. He’s currently the QB 18 with a reasonable ADP of 144.5.
I don’t have a strong preference or feel for who should go first between Fuller (86.9 ADP) and Waddle (93.0). They both go in same range and I believe it’s wise to have some exposure to each.
New England Patriots
I am not buying into Rhmondre Stevenson hype. If you made money on the preseason DFS slate where he scored 27 DK points, you might be tempted to. It has to be noted that the majority of those points came on a 91 yard TD run with just over a minute left in the 4th quarter, against dudes who will soon be driving UPS trucks. It’s hard to knock a guy for a 91 yard run, but the fact that he was even in the game at point speaks volumes about where he is in the RB pecking order.
The roles in the NE backfield seem fairly clear. Damien Harris is the lead dog, James White will handle passing downs, and Sony Michel is the change pace. It will likely take an injury at least one of those three for Stevenson to have any NFL relevance in 2021. I’ll get some shares of Harris on half point PPR sites and White on full PPR as RB depth when they fall a bit in drafts. I’m not going to be overweight on any Patriot back because their committee approach limits the ceiling for all.
Free agent signee Nelson Agholor and returning Jakobi Meyers both have an ADP in the 12th round. Either could easily return value at this price. This could be a situation similar to Denver pass catchers in which they fall a bit in best ball drafts because they don’t have a QB that’s an obvious stacking partner. Mac Jones looked comfortable in his first preseason appearance completing 13 of 19 passes for 87 yards. It is expected that Cam Newton will start the season, but at some point give way to Jones. This uncertainty makes neither QB a particularly attractive fantasy option.
Both of New England’s big money TE additions have battled injuries of late. Jonnu Smith is currently out of practice with an ankle sprain and Hunter Henry is working his way back from a shoulder issue. Henry’s ADP of 176.1 on Underdog makes him worth a punt if you miss out of some of the other late NFL TE value.
New York Jets
Rookie WR Elijah Moore had been breakout star of Jets camped until being removed from NFL practice last Thursday with a quad injury. Moore did not suit up for Friday’s preseason contest against the Giants. The injury is not expect linger into the regular season. Free agent acquisition Corey Davis displayed some encouraging chemistry with Zack Wilson. The former Tennessee Titan was targeted on all 4 of his routes run in the first preseason game. Davis looks like a potential steal at his current 9th round (103.1) ADP. Denzel Mims showed signs of life catching 3 balls for 51 yards. The reports out of camp had largely been negative on Mims causing his ADP to drop to the point where he often goes undrafted. It is too early to give up on the second year man out of Baylor, who flashed promise as a rookie. I’ve started taking some stabs Mims in the last round of best ball drafts.
The Jets RB situation is a tricky one to handicap. Of the 22 snaps starting QB Zack Wilson played on Saturday, Ty Johnson was in for 13 while rookie Michael Carter handled 9. Veteran Tevin Coleman who will likely be in the mix as well sat out the game. Carter (84.3) is going a whapping 131 spots ahead of Johnson (215.3) who out-snapped him. The Jets are said to be extremely high on their 4th round NFL pick, Carter, but it is far from certain that he will be the lead back when the season opens. Carter is probably the most gifted runner in Jet camp, but where is currently going (on the 7/8 turn), I’m not a buyer.
Sep 27, 2020; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) dives into the end zone for a touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams during the second quarter at Bills Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Buffalo Bills
If you listened to the DFS Army Bold Calls Podcast last year, you are probably still spending the money you made off your Josh Allen shares. There is no reason not to love Allen again in 2021, except this year there is no discount. He is the 2nd QB off the board (ADP 50.4), after only Mahomes. Steph Diggs is similarly expensive (ADP 10.8), going behind only Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill at wide receiver. It is difficult to get overweight on Allen/Diggs at these prices, but I will certainly get shares when my draft position dictates it.
You might need to go back to the days of Marshawn Lynch in order to remember a time when it was enjoyable to roster a Bills running back. Zack Moss was thought to have the inside track to early down carries in 2021. Moss missed the opening NFL preseason game against Detroit with a hamstring injury, but returned to practice on Monday. Devin Singletary was productive in limited duty verse the Lions, rush 42 yards on 8 carries, while catching a 6 yard touchdown. With Allen’s ability to call his own number at the goal-line, I can’t see either back having a real ceiling in this offense. They are both running back depth pieces at best.
Gabriel Davis (132.6), Emanuel Sanders (133.0), and Cole Beasley (138.8) are all going right in the same range. The market does not have a strong stance on who is the number two pass catcher in Buffalo and neither to do I. I have gotten light exposure to all three throughout my various drafts.
We will finish up this series next week with one the best divisions in the NFL, the AFC North. There is so much great football content right now on DFS Army. DFSUpNorth put together a tremendous Showdown tutorial video. CashKeg gives his first thoughts on week one DraftKings pricing. And you know we will have you covered with Cheat Sheets and Projections for this week’s preseason slate. Get all the premium NFL Content you can handle through a 10% off coupon code, DFSARMY, when you sign up via this link…