Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the end of the weekend with an 11-game main slate, as well as 4 late/afternoon matchups. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have a mixture of pitchers today with lots of high KSCOREs and ISO…some with both. For the early slates, Rodon leads the way with mostly the best stats overall, but things get a little dicey as you move on from him. Three others (Heaney, Pivetta, and Alzolay) have been giving up .200+ ISO over their last handful of starts, though Heaney does have a solid KSCORE in this matchup.
For the main slate, we have 10 pitchers with KSCOREs of 500 or better, but also eight of them with high ISOs/SIERAs. All in all, it’ll be a good slate for tournaments with so many pitchers in matchups with some upside, though we’ll want to rely on the coach’s notes page to see who might be the safest options for our cash lineups.
Early slates
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
We’ll kick things off with the Mariners and Yankees, with Flexen and Heaney on the mound. Vegas has the Yanks down for about 6 runs, but with how steady Flexen has been, I think we have a good chance of seeing the under there. Seattle finds themselves in a fairly decent spot against Heaney, who they know fairly well, so we might just see an upset here.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Seager, Haniger, Torrens/Moore
GPP note – Good spot against Heaney who is giving up plenty to both sides of the plate. There’s also a fair amount of BvP here, mostly with those listed above
Yankees 5 star plays – Rizzo
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton, Gallo
GPP note – Flexen is holding his own, though he is allowing slightly more to righties. Unfortunately, outside of Rizzo, a lot of these guys are a little cold against righties
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
We head to Chicago for our next game, with the White Sox and Cubs squaring off again. The White Sox have a big pitching advantage here, so I suspect we’ll see them grab this game as well. Maybe with a bit (lot) less scoring from the Cubbies.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Vaughn/Anderson, Goodwin
GPP note – Traditional reverse splits are in play here, with Alzolay giving up tons to lefties while being pretty strict to righties
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Bote
GPP note – Tough matchup against Rodon, so I can’t say I feel too good about this recently-weakened offense
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Game 1 of our double-header today will feature Pivetta and Ray, two pitchers who could very well keep this game under control for a while. Vegas only has this one down for 7 runs, which I think is pretty fair, but I do think there’s a chance the Toronto offense could do something a little extra here.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez, Devers, Bogaerts
GPP note – Not the best matchup against Ray, and they’ll only see 7 innings, so you’ll have to decide if the lower ceiling will be worth having the (potentially) leveraged ownership
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero, Springer, Semien/Bichette
GPP note – Pivetta can be good, but he hasn’t been too hot lately. I like this offense’s chances better to make some noise in this game, and the RvR matchups don’t concern me much here
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Up next is another game that I think we’ll see the under, with the Mets and Phillies facing off with Megill and Ranger Suarez with the start. While I don’t see these guys as late-game dominant pitchers, I do think they’ll be able to keep things under control for at least the first half of the game.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, McNeil, Baez
GPP note – Not a great opening matchup against Suarez, so you’ll be targeting the bullpen more here
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Hoskins, Segura
GPP note – Not the best matchup against Megill, but some good lefties might be worth a look. He’s allowing .143 ISO to them, which isn’t a ton, but it is at least something
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
The Rangers and Athletics are next, and this one just points to the home team pretty heavily for me. Irvin is in a good spot here, and I feel like he’s a bit underpriced on DraftKings. His team faces Drew Anderson, who hasn’t really done a whole heck of a lot yet, and hasn’t shown me anything to make me think he’s going to hold this offense down while he’s on the mound.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Garcia, Lowe
GPP note – Irvin has been fairly strict and there aren’t any exciting options on this offense. They’ll be low owned at least, which is about the best thing I can say about them here
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson, Marte, Canha, Harrison
GPP note – Another bullpen game, Anderson has given up a lot more to righties in his limited outings, and he hasn’t struck anybody out yet, either. They could get off to a quick hot start that could snowball, so big stacks are good to go here
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Main slate
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
We head to the main slate and Camden Yards with the Rays and Orioles next, and while I do think both offenses are worth a look, the Rays are certainly the much more interesting option. I think the entire lineup is worth a look, as they get a pitcher who looks to be getting a little lucky by not having been blown up yet.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Cruz, Choi, Lowe, Meadows, Diaz
GPP note – Overall, Watkins isn’t allowing a ton, though he’s not striking out many batters, either. It’s just a matter of time before he gets shelled, and there are enough hot bats here to do it. Big stacks are in play, and really, the entire lineup is worth a look
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mullins, Hays, Severino
GPP note – A few of these guys are hitting well too, so if they can get to McClanahan early, we could see some fireworks. A decent source of some pivots and secondary stacks
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Game 2 of our double-header will have Houck and Berrios, and like the first game, this one also has a 7 run total. I think that if we get a higher scoring game, it will come from the first one, so you could consider basing your exposure to this game based on how that one does (i.e. if one team goes off in the early game, consider fading them here to leverage ownership).
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Martinez, Bogaerts
GPP note – Berrios has been solid and I think could hold down this offense for a while, which like the first game, could limit their ceiling in this 7-inning game
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero, Springer, Bichette/Semien
GPP note – Houck has pitched better than his price tag would indicate, and he allowed only 2 hits in 4 innings against these guys last week. If they go off in the first game, it might not be a bad idea to shift your focus elsewhere, and leverage ownership if he holds them down again. Otherwise, the same usual big bats are in play here
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
The Tigers and Indians are up next, with some interesting pitching scenarios. For the Tigers, they’ll face Morgan who is one of those “high ISO but high KSCORE” guys. That tells me he’s a low-floor/high-ceiling option, and where there’s a low floor pitcher in MLB, there’s an offense that has that much higher of a ceiling. The Indians get a guy who has been weak to righties, and they just so happen to have a handful of righties swinging a good bat right now.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Schoop, Baddoo, Cabrera, Haase, Grossman
GPP note – Morgan is allowing a lot of power but also striking out a fair amount of batters, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to hedge some lineups here, as one of these two could put up some good numbers (be it this offense or Morgan)
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Reyes, Rosario, Mercado
GPP note – Great spot against Alexander who is giving up all sorts of contact and power to righties, and this team has a bunch of them…a few of which are swinging a hot bat right now
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
We head to Great American Ball Park next, which is always a good option to look at behind Coors and Camden Yards. The Pirates aren’t exciting, but they do at least get a bump here due to playing in Cincinnati. The Reds get a guy who is just struggling, so if he doesn’t bring his A-game, he might just get shelled again. Be sure to have some exposure to this offense in case that happens again.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds, Moran
GPP note – This offense is nothing special, but they get a good ballpark and a pitcher who is allowing a fair chunk, so I think we could see them having some success here. Maybe not huge stacks, but 1-3 player stacks could be solid
Reds 5 star plays – Votto
Reds 4 star plays – Winker, India, Farmer, Moustakas
GPP note – Keller has really struggled lately, so if he’s still shaky, this offense could be in a really good spot to go off. LvR or RvR doesn’t really matter here,; he’s been getting hit by everybody and rarely striking anybody out
San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
The Giants and Brewers are up next, in another game that offers some hedging options. We get Woodruff here, who can put up some good scores of his own, against the Giants’ offense that can do much the same. On the other side we get Cueto, who isn’t as expensive as he could be, as he offers a solid carnage rating and KSCORE. He does allow some power, so I could see him giving up a solo homer or something, but I don’t think he’s a great target to attack today with big stacks.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Bryant, Yastrzemski, Crawford/Belt, Posey, Dickerson
GPP note – Pretty tough matchup against Woodruff, but we know what these guys are capable of. If there was ever a place to hedge, this would be it
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Escobar, Tellez, Adames
GPP note – There are a few decent bats here, though Cueto has been holding his own and racking up a decent chunk of strikeouts. I don’t see big stacks working well here, but maybe a couple bats per lineup could work
Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
The Twins and Astros are up next, and this one as Houston written all over it. Garcia is raking in the strikeouts, so I tend to favor him here, though Minnesota has some hot bats coming in, so hedging isn’t off the table here. Even if he gives up a few runs, his offense gets to face Pineda, somebody who is worth targeting right now. I don’t think it would be overly difficult for them to go the over against him.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Garver, Polanco, Donaldson/Sano
GPP note – Difficult matchup against Garcia, though some of these bats are coming in hot. This is another great place to hedge some bets, as both sides show high upside potential
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez, Brantley, Altuve, Correa, Tucker, Moldonado
GPP note – Pineda is a nice soft target, and while he’s showing some signs of moving towards the better, I don’t know that it happens here. Stacks of any size are in play, and you can try wrap-around stacks to be a little different
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Kansas City Royals at St Louis Cardinals
The I-70 rivalry continues next, with the Royals and Cardinals squaring off. Vegas sees this game about the same as I do, favoring the Cardinals without much excitement coming from KC. I think the biggest thing to remember here is that both Keller and the St Louis offense can be a bit random, making this yet another place to consider hedging a few lineups.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Perez, Merrifield
GPP note – Kim has pitched well and my Royals just aren’t getting it done against lefties. It’s hard to see big stacks really paying off here, but maybe a solo homer or two could pop out
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, Bader, Carlson
GPP note – A volatile offense meets a volatile pitcher. You could hedge some here, as there’s a good chance one side will do well, but if not, I would give the edge to this offense over Keller’s arm
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
The Nationals and Braves are up next, in another game that pretty heavily favors the home team. I think they’re a solid option today, especially as a pivot to more popular options like Coors, as they could quickly send this game a little sideways with some quick early scoring.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto, Bell
GPP note – Not a great matchup against Morton, and there aren’t a lot of hot bats against righties to pick from. Probably go with lower stacks or one-offs here and find your main stacks elsewhere
Braves 5 star plays – Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Riley, Swanson, Soler
GPP note – Gray has allowed 5 homers in 3 games, and I think he’ll have another one or two hit off of him here. The power is coming from both sides, so don’t feel like you can only take Freeman and the lefties. Big stacks are in play here
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Ah, Coors. Some of baseball’s chalkiest games, especially after a team puts up 14 runs the night before. There’s no doubt they’ll have a lot of attention here, but with some other offenses in solid spots, don’t feel like you have to focus all of your attention right here.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Rojas, Brinson
GPP note – These guys aren’t doing so well, but neither is Gomber, so maybe we could see 1-2 bats pay off here. It is Coors though, so you could always test your luck with some bigger stacks
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron, Story, Rodgers, Blackmon
GPP note – They’ll be popular after going off last night, but they are swinging some good lumber against lefties, so I can’t say they’re in a bad spot or anything. Pretty much everybody is in play here, and Luzardo has been very soft to righties
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
The Diamondbacks and Padres are up next, and you wouldn’t believe it, but we have another hedging option here. Two of them, actually. Widener is another “high ISO high KSCORE” pitcher, and I’m sad to say, but so is Darvish. He continues to trend the wrong way, and unless he fixes something soon, he might just stay a high-dollar liability.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – VanMeter
GPP note – Not really much to love here, though Darvish is trending the wrong way; he’s lost 4 out of his last 5 starts and is allowing a pretty good amount of power to both sides of the plate. Another hedge spot, perhaps?
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer, Croneworth, Pham
GPP note – Hey look, another hedge spot! Widener is allowing some good contact and power to both sides, but he’s also got a solid 27.4% strikeout rate over his last handful of starts. If you have room for some more hedge lineups, this would be another place to look
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
We close the night out with our two Los Angeles teams, in another game that heavily favors the home team. They have a big edge in both pitching and offense, and Ohtani is about the only thing the Angels have going for them here. The LAD lefties are in a pretty solid spot, as is Urias, so you’ll probably find yourself having a fair amount of exposure to this one.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani
GPP note – Urias has been a tough target, so I can’t really recommend any big exposure here. Ohtani is always in play, but he might be the only one
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts, Muncy, Taylor/Turner, Bellinger/Seager
GPP note – The lefties are in a good spot here, with Barria allowing .211 ISO to them recently. The righties aren’t in a great spot, though Taylor and Smith are hitting them well
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves – Good matchup against Gray who is allowing plenty to both sides. Good chance we’ll see some action here, and they make a solid pivot option from Coors (or a secondary stack option).
- Cincinnati Reds – Strong matchup here against Keller at a batter-friendly ballpark. I think this would be a good alternative to Coors.
- Colorado Rockies – Speaking of which, these guys do find themselves in a good matchup, even though they’ll be pretty popular after last night’s performance. Still, I can’t say NOT to play them, unless you want to leverage a bunch of ownership and hope they all drop duds.
- Cleveland Indians – I normally only put 3 teams here, but I think the Indians deserve a spot. They get a solid matchup against a pitcher who has been weak to righties, and they have a fair number of righties who are running hot right now. That’s a good reason to have some exposure here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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