Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/04:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Shohei Ohtani
- Max Scherzer
- Jameson Taillon
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Philadelphia Phillies (EVEN) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Phillies -Chase Anderson
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Espino has been decent for the Nats but he’s not somebody I have a ton of confidence in. Anderson gets a weakened WAS lineup but he just isn’t a very strong option and he’s probably not going to get super deep in the game. I feel better about mini-stacks than full-stacks in this one.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Victor Robles, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Cincinnati Reds (-195)
Pitchers:
Twins – Charlie Barnes
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Castillo has been pretty solid and the Twins lineup can look pretty weak overall. Barnes was decent in his only start this season but he picked up just 1 K. If he’s going to allow a lot of contact, he could be in trouble in this ballpark. The Twins have the power to be used as a stack but I just struggle wanting to stack them with Arraez and his zero power-hitting 5th.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 against LHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ Oakland Athletics (-152)
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Padres knocked around Manaea last night and that caught me off guard. We know that they do have the offense to be strong without Tatis. I could see this game ending up 4-3 but I could also see either SP having a tough time and giving up 5 or 6 in 5 innings of work. The ball does fly better during the day in Oakland.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against RHPs this season.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-210)
Pitchers:
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Dodgers – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get to see Scherzer make his LA debut tonight. He’s the kind of guy that would take this start extremely seriously and I think we see a vintage Scherzer performance. Odorizzi can certainly struggle and the Dodgers offense is as loaded as any in baseball. I can’t want to see Trea Turner in this lineup as well but for now, we are “stuck” with just Betts-J.Turner-Muncy-Seager-W.Smith at the top.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Brantley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
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Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays (-210)
Pitchers:
Indians – JC Mejia
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Matz is such a wild card at this point. He has the stuff to rack up Ks early and often but he also could give up 3 HRs in the first 3 or 4 innings. The Indians’ offense shouldn’t be one that scares him for the most part, especially if he’s able to contain Ramirez-Reyes. Once again, the Blue Jays find themselves at or near the top of my stack rankings.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels (-157) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get another start for Ohtani in which we can’t use him as a hitter. I hate that the sites haven’t made an adjustment to the situation and it hurts an Angels stack. With that said, I can see an Angels mini-stack being somewhat sneaky with how Adell looked yesterday and how he’s been in the minors. Ohtani is going to be one of my favorite SPs against a TEX lineup that was bad with Joey Gallo.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jo Adell, Justin Upton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against LHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nate Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (-270)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Matt Harvey
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Harvey has fired off 3 straight scoreless outings and he shut down the Yankees earlier this season. So why do I have the Yankees in my top 3? Well, I think it’s a bit of smoke and mirrors from Harvey and I expect him to fall back into his “old” routine plus their offense woke up last night. Taillon has given up 2 earned or less in 7 of his last 8 starts.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (-270)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Steven Brault
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We saw Houser take a no-hitter into the 7th last night before the Brewers bullpen fell apart. Peralta is a far better SP than Houser is and he’s been absolutely ridiculous at home, holding hitters to an average of .107. Brault is coming off of the IL to make this start but he probably ends up limited to around 4 innings.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays (-153)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rays – Josh Fleming
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Fleming looked like he ran out of gas in his last start and that could lead to some struggles in this one. I think SEA is a sneaky offense to stack because we see guys kind of struggle after a career-high start (innings or pitch number). Gilbert has been solid for SEA and while he’s capable of getting outs against TB, I think TB has a dangerous lineup for him to deal with.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets (-160) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Marlins – Zach Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Carrasco should be in a plus spot, even if it’s just his 2nd start. Thompson has been a surprise for Miami and he could be a sneaky option as the Mets lineup looks like it should be performing so much better. The low total is really intriguing as long as we see Carrasco stretched into the 70s for pitch total. Thompson hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned in any appearance at the MLB level this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies (-160)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Alec Mills
Rockies – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. I really wish this game was in Chicago, with the wind blowing in, so that I could just ignore it for the most part. Does that mean we should consider Jon Gray? It probably does as this Chicago lineup looks so dang bad. The Rockies lineup came alive last night and while I don’t think they are a spectacular offense, they could do it again against Mills.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Ortega
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season (includes the studs traded away).
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brendon Rodgers, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
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San Francisco Giants (-177) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Giants – Kevin Gausman
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I want to see a “vintage” Gausman performance against a weak Arizona lineup. He hasn’t looked sharp recently but he has allowed just 2 runs in 13 innings against Arizona this season. Gallen has looked decent in 2 of his last 3 starts but he’s struggled terribly with the Giants this season. The Giants offense lines up to be a top 6 or so stack for me on this main slate.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Steven Duggar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox (-153) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Mize has thrown the ball effectively for Detroit but I worry about his lack of K upside against this Boston lineup. Rodriguez has flashed huge upside in his career but he also has some puzzling starts where he seems to lack focus. The Red Sox always carries ownership-based off on team and player names.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox (-245)
Pitchers:
Royals – Carlos Hernandez
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Giolito can certainly shut down an opposing offense but he’s also at risk of the walk and long ball as he likes to pitch up in the zone. The White Sox put up some runs last night and they could be in a similar position tonight. The top half of the lineup is in a plus spot as I think Anderson starts to really carry the offense as the season winds down.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves (-111) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Braves – Drew Smyly
Cardinals – JA Happ
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get two LHPs who are up there in innings and age. Both guys have the ability to keep the opposing offense off-balance but I think both guys struggle a bit, especially Happ. The Braves smacked around Lester last night and I think the same fate awaits Happ.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against LHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Harrison Bader
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Yankees
MLB Dinger of the Day – Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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