Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/03:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Sean Manaea
- Zack Wheeler
- Adrian Houser
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Philadelphia Phillies (-153) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Pretty low total to open this game, but I do have interest in the Phillies side of things. Corbin has been pretty bad all season outside a little stretch of time, but he has allowed at least 4 ER in each of his last 3 starts. He just faced PHI and allowed 4 ER on 8 hits in 5 innings. PHI has a .252 ISO as a team against LHP in the last 14 days! Load up on PHI tonight folks. For the Nationals, it’s hard for me to trust them at all against Wheeler, they traded away most of their offense, but last time they faced Wheeler they did score 3 runs on him and got the win. This WSH team has actually been hitting since trading away Turner (even though he and Schwarber have been out), they scored 18 runs over their last 4 games. Definitely a sneaky GPP stack tonight at minimal ownership.
PHI 5-star plays: Alec Bohm
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Cincinnati Reds (-135)
Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Pretty high total here and I can see it. Both teams have been hitting the ball pretty well and both pitchers can have their times of struggle. MIN comes into this game with a .237 ISO against RHP in the last 2 weeks, while CIN comes into this right behind them at a .233 ISO against RHP in that same time frame. Joey Votto has been an absolute monster of late and it’s hard to ignore him. Maeda has been pretty good of late but just doesn’t normally go deep into the game, but I do see some upside with him if he can limit Votto here tonight. Mahle had a rather disappointing game against the Cubs, striking out just 2 of them but was able to get the QS. He’s been hit or miss this year and struggled to even make it 5 last time he faced MIN. I like both offenses here in this one.
MIN 5-star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Miguel Sano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ Oakland Athletics (-189)
Pitchers:
Padres – Blake Snell
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Starting off, I slightly prefer using the OAK side of this game. Manaea was able to shut down this Padres team on the road in his last start, striking out 9 over 6 innings. He’s looked pretty sharp for much of the year. Yes, SD is dangerous, but without Tatis, their offense isn’t as scary. He has struck out at least 7 hitters in 3 straight starts and has massive upside here. On the other side, Snell has struggled pretty much all season for the Padres and was torched for 7 ER in just 4 innings when he faced them on June 28th. OAK has a solid .176 ISO against LHP in the last 2 weeks while walking at a 10.6% clip and Snell has allowed at least 3 walks in 5 straight starts. SD has struggled in the power department over the last few weeks, having just a .120 ISO against LHP.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Harrison, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-172)
Pitchers:
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This game features one of baseball’s best pitchers of late. Buehler has been fantastic for the Dodgers this year and has allowed 3 ER or less in 14 straight starts while getting a little more than a K per inning. HOU offense is dangerous as shown in their .242 team ISO against RHP in the last 2 weeks and low strikeout rate. I think if Buehler can manage to limit the Astros and pick up about a K per inning he can continue his hot stretch. McCullers has allowed 4 ER in each of his last 2 starts, but his strikeouts have been there to help that out. He has at least 8 K’s in his last 5 starts. LAD is dangerous, but I think this game is going to be rather low scoring here out in LA.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against RHPs this season.
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Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays (-203)
Pitchers:
Indians – Zach Plesac
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This game is interesting here. Both pitchers are ‘meh’ and both offenses can be dangerous. I’m not really on Plesac here tonight as his low strikeout rate doesn’t leave much upside, put in that TOR is one of the most dangerous offenses in the league when they are rolling. TOR has a .203 ISO against RHP in the last 2 weeks with a .317 wOBA. On the Ryu side, he was able to blank the Red Sox over 6 innings last time out and has looked decent, but CLE actually has a .266 ISO against LHP in the last 2 weeks and could be a sneaky GPP stack here.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Myles Straw, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Angels – Jose Suarez
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I’m assuming this game is going to be a middle-of-the-road total when Vegas information comes out. Neither pitcher is that good but the Rangers offense isn’t that good either. The Angels I like a bit with Lyles being a reverse splits pitcher. I do think this game can see some high scoring from both sides.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 against LHPs this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Pitchers:
Orioles – Alexander Wells
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information as Gerrit Cole was scratched due to testing positive. Looks like Nestor Cortes is going to start for the Yanks over Cole here. Cortes has been really good when given the opportunity, but BAL just lit up the Yanks lefties last night. I do like BAL for GPPs and Mullins makes for a solid cash piece too. The Yankees were terrible last night and made Lopez look way better than he is. Now they face Wells, who isn’t really that great either. Right back to the well for the Yanks here (no pun intended).
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 against LHPs this season.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (-233)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Max Kranick
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This game is rather interesting tonight. Neither pitcher is great, but the offenses can go back and forth. Join up at the DFSArmy.com to get full breakdowns on this game and some others! Remember, this is a free piece so we cant give all the goodies away for free! Use promo code RAZ to save 10% off your VIP membership!
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Ben Gamel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays (-157)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rays – Luis Patino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I can see another high-scoring game in this one. SEA went off last night and have another decent matchup with Patino. TB played a hard series with BOS and swept them and came out flat against Seattle. Seattle is fighting to stay in contention for the WC in the AL too and will be playing hard for the rest of the season. Patino shut down the Yanks (but who really hasn’t lately), and allowed 4 ER or more in each of his 3 starts before that. Kikuchi has been good and I like him here tonight. With Fraley coming back for SEA, he’s going to be good value while he remains cheap too.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against LHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Marlins – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Still not sure who is starting for the Marlins here, but I have interest in both offenses here. NYM added Baez which is a ton of power in their lineup. The Marlins couldnt score against the Yankees this past weekend, but had a nice game last night. Walker has struggled of late, allowing 5 or 6 ER in each of his last 3 starts.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies (-140)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Zach Davies
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. Massive Coors total. The Cubs have been a surprise of late and still on fire even with trading away 3 of their best hitters. Davies is a soft contact guy, but pitching in Coors isn’t easy. I expect, as does Vegas this to be a higher scoring game with Freeland having some struggles this year. He’s been better lately, but the Cubs are still hitting lefties fairly well. The CUbs have a .200 ISO against LHP over the last 2 weeks.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season (includes the studs traded away).
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brendon Rodgers, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
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San Francisco Giants (-157) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Giants – Johnny Cueto
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Pitching dual, maybe if this were 5 years ago. Both pitchers are on the end of their careers so I’m not really interested much in either pitcher here. I would give a slight edge to Cueto here as the D-Backs offense isn’t as dangerous as the Giants one. With all the righties in the Giants order and who they can throw out, with adding Bryant, trusting Bum is hard to do right now. Edge to the Giants offense in this game.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Darin Ruf
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Josh VanMeter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox (-135) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Garrett Richards
Tigers – Wily Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Yup, the Tigers have a game with a total of 10. That should tell you something about the starting pitchers in this one. I fully expect this to be a high scoring game as Richards hasn’t been that great, and Peralta is a righty who isn’t very good and has allowed 11 ER over his last 2 starts. I expect fireworks here in this one. DET is one of those teams who doesn’t K much and can single a pitcher out of the game. Richards has allowed at least 4 ER in 5 of his last 7 starts.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against RHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox (-195)
Pitchers:
Royals – Kris Bubic
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Neither offense here on a big slate really intrigues me much and neither pitcher does either. On a 15 game slate, we don’t really need to go much with either of these teams.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against LHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves (-125) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Cardinals – Jon Lester
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. ATL even without Acuna can really hit lefties and Lester isn’t as good as he once was. He has been better of late, but the strikeouts still aren’t there and ATL has some dangerous hitters against lefties, plus they added Duvall at the deadline who can really hit lefties. For the Cards, it’s hard to use much of their numbers against LHP in the last 2 weeks because they haven’t faced many as they have just 27 PA against lefties in the last 14 days. STL is a hard offense to play because they aren’t that consistent. Fried hasn’t been bad, but on a big slate, I likely will pass him.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against LHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Yadier Molina
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Chicago White Sox
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nelson Cruz, TB Rays
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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