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NFL Fantasy Football 2021 Primer- Summer Stock Report- NFC West

We are going around the NFL division by division getting you caught up on the biggest camp news that has moved players’ ADP. We’ve already covered the NFC North and East. Check those pieces out if haven’t already. Today we head west to analyze one of the most balanced divisions in the NFL.

I am using Underdog ADP when reference. If you aren’t already firing away at their best ball contests, we have an awesome offer for a free month of DFS Army VIP access when you try them out.

NFL Fantasy Football

Oct 26, 2020; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Darrell Henderson (27) carries the ball as Chicago Bears defensive end Roy Robertson-Harris (95) makes the tackle during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

LA Rams

 

Last night I clicked save on my first draft of this NFC West preview, had a nice dinner with my girlfriend, and then picked Cam Akers 11th overall in a Best Ball Mania II draft on Underdog.  When the news of his ruptured Achilles broke this morning, I quickly realized all my Akers shares were dead money and the paragraph I had written touting him would need some editing.

Those who had been stocking up on backup Darrell Henderson in the 11th/12th round were likely smiling in private at Akers’ and his fantasy owners’ misfortune.  In the draft I did last night, before the Akers news dropped, Henderson went at pick 11.2.  In the draft I did today, about 20 hours later in the exact same contest, Henderson went at 2.6.  I like Henderson as player, but think taking him in the 2nd round is a massive overreaction.  I’ve seen other screenshots posted today with him going in the 6th, which feels more fair.  My guess is ultimately settles in the 4/5th round range.

While I do believe Darrell Henderson will get the first crack as the lead back, I don’t expect him to get the full bell cow role that was projected for Akers.  Aside from prime Todd Gurley and Akers’ brief playoff run, McVay has always utilized an RB committee.  I fully expect the Rams to bring someone in to help share the load with Henderson.

There are veterans like the aforementioned Gurley, Lev Bell, Duke Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Devonta Freeman who are all currently free.  They are all quite dusty, but could steal enough work to hurt Henderson’s value if signed.  There also backs like Melvin Gordon and Sony Michel who could probably be had for not much in a trade.

In summary, if you had been drafting Darrell Henderson prior to this morning, you are sitting pretty, but I wouldn’t reach too high to draft him now.  We still don’t know how the RB usage will ultimately be distributed.

The Akers injury could cause LA to lean more heavily on their air attack.  New quarterback Matt Stafford could be the tide that lifts all boats for Rams’ pass catchers.  Sean McVay has been hamstrung in recent years by the limitations of Jared Goff.  The veteran Stafford brings superior arm strength, accuracy, ability to read the field.  Stafford should increase the ceiling of Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp who are both currently going in the 4th round.  Stafford, is solid value as the 12th QB off the board in the 9th round, especially if you’ve already taken one of his top receivers.

Tyler Higbee should benefit from Gerald Everett’s departure.  Stafford has been know to target his TE.  Going in the 9th round, Higbee makes sense as the second piece of the double stack with Stafford and either Woods or Kupp. One of the three late round Ram receivers, Van Jefferson, DeSean Jackson, or Tutu Atwell will likely be fantasy relevant.  I don’t have a strong enough feel, at least at this point to be overweight on any of the three.

 

San Francisco 49ers

 

I think there is a decent chance that in week 17, when most season long and best ball formats will be decided, a 49ers stack will be the nuts. The schedule makers gifted the San Francisco a home game verse the train wreck that is the Houston Texans in that decisive week.

Generally, it’s a fool’s errand to put too much thought into late season schedule when drafting. It is not easy to predict which defenses are going to suck six months from now. The Texans might be the exception. I am confident in saying that they are going to suck. Houston has the lowest Las Vegas implied win total (4), in the NFL. They are 2.5 point home dogs week one to a Jaguar team that went 1-15 last season. The Texan defense was either 27 or 30 in DVOA in 2020 depending on which site you use, and that was with JJ Watt.

I expect Houston to be in full tank mode by week 17, Kyle Shanahan and his Niner offense should be able to name their score.

Not only is the championship matchup Charmin’ soft, 49er stacks are perfectly affordable. Trey Lance is going in the 11th round as the 14 QB off the board, not even a starter 12 team leagues. Most people associate Kyle Shanahan’s offense with game manager, pocket passer type QBs such Jimmy G, Matt Ryan, and Kirk Cousins, hence the assumption that he was going to draft Mac Jones. However, to predict Trey Lance’s role we need to look back 2012 when Kyle was calling plays for his dad in Washington. RG3 was a rookie quarterback who ran for 826 yards with 7 TDs while throwing for another 20 against only 5 interceptions.

If Shanahan can guide Lance to similarly efficient fantasy production, he’d be a value in the 5th or 6th round, let alone the 11th. The presence of of Jimmy Garoppolo is the obvious turd in punch bowl.  That said, you don’t give up 3 first round picks, to draft a quarterback 3rd overall, and not play him.  Even if you have to wait a few weeks for Lance, he can still be easily worth the depressed price.  I like to pair Trey with an early to mid-round, upside QB, like any of the other 3 in this division who can carry your squad until he ultimately secures the job.

Lance has easy, natural stacking options.  Kittle is going off the board in the 3rd, a full two rounds after Kelce. Aiyuk currently has a 5th round ADP and Deebo, a 7th.  It is not difficult to stack with Kittle and one of the two main receivers.

History has shown that basically any running back getting bulk carries in a Shanahan offense is going to be productive. It can be tricky, however, knowing who is going to get those carries week to week.  The market is betting on rookie Trey Sermon who is currently going in the 7th, a full round ahead of is veteran teammate Raheem Mostert.

I could see Sermon finding his footing late in his rookie season, becoming an absolute monster down the stretch, like Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers did last season.  Taylor went mostly in the 1st and Akers, mostly the 2nd last year.  Thus, they sunk many the fantasy teams they were on before their late surges even started.  I love Sermon, because at his currently 7th round price you even necessarily need him to be awesome right away.

 

Seattle Seahawks

 

Early in the offseason Russ Wilson was sort of asking for a trade and Chris Carson was testing free agency.  It looked like there may be offensive upheaval in Seattle.  Carson wound up resigning and Russ reported to workouts without issue.  The Hawk now have all of the weapons in their condensed offense back in the fold.

The main change in the hiring of coordinator Shane Waldron.  There is concern that this hiring could be a negative for the passing game as previous coordinator Brian Schottenheimer was apparently fired for not running the ball enough.  However, Waldron, who comes from Sean McVay’s staff in LA, will likely look to increase Seattle’s pace and play volume.  If he can do so it could more than make up for renewed focus on the run.

DK Metcalf is absolute physical freak who spent the summer racing Olympic sprinters.  DK is going in the 2nd round and stacks easily with Wilson, who has an affordable 7th round ADP.  I don’t mind taking Tyler Lockett as the second part of a double stack with Metcalf and Wilson, otherwise I am passing at his current 4th round ADP.  His overall 2020 numbers are inflated greatly two outlier performances of 32.5 and 45.5 fantasy points.   Meanwhile, in the decisive weeks 12-16 he averaged a meager 6.54 points (half point PPR).

Chris Carson is coming off an injury marred season that saw him only break 20 fantasy points once.  He does seem to have little competition for carries in 2021, especially with Rashaad Penny continuing to battle knee injuries.  I don’t find myself drafting much Chris Carson at his 4th ADP, mainly because I prefer JK Dobbins who typically goes in the same range or David Montgomery, a round later.

I do very much like Gerald Everett as a late round TE2 and/or final piece of a Seattle stack.  He is a plus athlete who knows Waldron’s system from their time in LA and no longer has to compete with Tyler Higbee for snaps and targets.

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Arizona Cardinals

 

It drew the attention of the fantasy community when Kyler Murray insinuated to azcardinals.com that he want’s to run less in the 2021.  “Honestly, the way I see it, my legs should be a luxury,” Murray said.

The Kyler Murray owner/drafter might want to dismiss this quote as meaningless summer chatter, but it makes practical sense.  Kyler is 5’10, 200 pounds on a good day, he knows he can’t help his team if he’s not healthy.  His best chance of staying healthy is probably to run less.

DeAndre Hopkins is a solid and safe 2nd round pick, but when drafting for large field best ball tournaments, I view WR ones as a 2v2 with their QB against the other QB/WR tandems going in their range.  I’m fine with pairing Hopkins in the 2nd and Murray in the 5th, but I prefer this previously mentioned Metcalf in the 2nd with Russ in the 7th.  I also prefer taking Dak in the same 5th/6th round range as Murray while getting a full round discount with Ceedee Lamb in the 3rd.  Because I prefer these comparable alternatives, I don’t find myself getting a ton of Hopkins or Murray.

I like Chase Edmonds’ skillset, but he literally has one carry inside the 5-yard line in his career.  Knowing this fact, I can’t take him at his 6th/7th round ADP.  If you believe those rushing TDs will go to James Conner, he could prove to be a value, going 3 or 4 rounds later.  The question, as always with Conner, will be his ability (or lack there of) to stay on the field.

Rookie Rondale Moore is only 5’7′, but a dynamic athlete would could be very effective on screens and jet sweeps.  Think of him as a mini Deebo Samuel.  Moore will compete with veterans AJ Green and Christian Kirk for snaps and targets.

Next week we will finish up the NFC with a trip to the dirty South.  Stay plugged into the Bold Calls Fantasy Football Podcast, and check out the best offer we’ve ever done on our full 12-month season of VIP NFL content.