Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/06:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Jacob deGrom
- Framber Valdez
- Jon Gray
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St Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (-130)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The battle of the vet SPs should be fun to watch from a nostalgia standpoint. I actually side with Wainwright in this match-up but either offense could put up 7 runs and I wouldn’t be shocked. I generally prefer Wainwright when he’s pitching at home.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Harrison Bader
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. If Gonsolin is allowed to pitch deep enough, I could see both of these SPs putting up strong stat lines. I know the Dodgers are a scary offense but Lopez has been strong at home. I won’t be stacking either side but I think we can make mini-stacks work in our GPP builds.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against RHPs this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs this season.
Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Castillo
Royals – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CIN 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox (-111) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Twins – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Rodon has been a K machine all season and if the Twins are without Donaldson and Cruz, I could see the Twins struggling some in this game. I know they have a ton of power against LHPs but those are two very important bats. Berrios is solid and should be pretty decent in this one. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the total move down to 8 by first pitch.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Gavin Sheets
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 against LHPs this season.
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Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets (-270)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. We get deGrom against a hot brewers squad (even though they have now lost 2 in a row). He is always going to be in play and I mean that. He could be facing the AL All-Stars and I would still put my money on deGrom at this point. Yelich has actually dominated him in his career. Anderson is coming off of the IL so I think the Mets could be sneaky.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Kevin Pillar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against LHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros (-145)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really like this SP match-up but will side with Valdez at this point. If the Astros lineup is missing a few of the bigger names yet, then Bassitt is going to be a strong option. The A’s started the season out destroying LHPs but their ISO has fallen, as a team, over .030 points since the first month of play.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Chad Pinder, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against LHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies (-125) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Cubs – Jake Arrieta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Nola is generally a guy I avoid when he’s on the road and seeing a total of 9.5 immediately tells me that it’s going to be hot and the hitting atmosphere should be pretty strong. Based on that information, I want to stack both sides but mostly the Phillies.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Nationals – Undecided
Padres – Ryan Weathers
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman, Yan Gomes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 against LHPs this season.
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Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Going to see what Shohei has in him in this match-up as the top half of the BOS lineup is extremely dangerous. Both of these SPs are in the All-Star game I do believe so it’s an interesting match-up. Not being able to use Shohei as a hitter in this one really weakens the Angels stack.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Juan Lagares
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Orioles – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: George Springer, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Maikel Franco, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against LHPs this season.
Cleveland Indians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Indians – NA
Rays – NA
Rundown:
TUESDAY’S GAME IS PPD DUE TO POTENTIAL WEATHER. WILL BE A DOUBLEHEADER ON WEDNESDAY.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against LHPs this season.
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Atlanta Braves (-172) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Braves – Ian Anderson
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Pirates knocked around the Braves on Monday night but I expect it to be the Braves doing the knocking around on Tuesday night. Gamel is rolling at the plate and makes a strong one-off at what should be a value price point. I am all about stacking the top half of the Braves plus using Anderson on the mound.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against RHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ben Gamel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 against RHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-121)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Jon Gray
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Story is starting to heat up and he’s hit Kelly really well in his career. There are actually some strong BvPs on both sides in this match-up but both teams are pretty weak overall. I could see both SPs putting up strong performances but I could also see either side putting up 7 runs.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: David Peralta
4-star plays: Pavin Smith, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 against RHPs this season.
New York Yankees (-153) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Mariners – Justus Sheffield
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Yankees need to wake up as they have a ton of guys who can hit LHPs extremely well. Taillon has the stuff to be a stud but he lacks consistency and he seems to allow a big inning out of nowhere. The Mariners are playing well above their head right now and seeing a 9 total makes me think we can stack both sides of this match-up.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Jake Fraley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers (-177)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Jose Urena
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Both of these offenses are pretty weak overall but they do have a couple of bats who are swinging it decently well. Gallo hit another HR on Monday night and is capable of a double-dong in this spot. I don’t see myself going to Urena like I did Peralta but I think Dunning is going to make my GPP pool.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo
4-star plays: David Dahl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Dinger of the Day – JT Realmuto, PHI
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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