Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We head into the end of the weekend with an 11-game main slate, as well as 4 late/afternoon matchups. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have a full house of games today, and with it, plenty of pitching options. For the early slate we have some high-upside options like Eovaldi and German, and a few pitchers that can throw a good game, but will be facing tougher offenses (such as Wood, Greinke, and Yarbrough). There’s a good chance we’ll get a surprise with our nuts pitcher on this slate, so don’t be afraid to get a little creative in tournaments.
For the main slate, we have multiple pitchers with 500+ KSCOREs, such as Nola, Darvish, Woodruff, Ross, and McKenzie. There’s a good mixture of cash and tournament options, along with a few that have high ISO/SIERAs, such as Ober, Keuchel, and Hill. There’s a lot to go through here, so let’s get to it!
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays
We’ll kick things off with the Royals and Blue Jays, with Minor and Manoah both coming into this one with good recent performances (granted Manoah hasn’t pitched since July 9th). There’s not a lot of BvP here either, outside of Springer, so I’m not sure how much excitement we’ll see from this one.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Perez, Santana/Benintendi
GPP note – It seems that Manoah is either really good or really bad, so hedge accordingly
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Springer (BvP), Guerrero, Semien/Bichette
GPP note – Minor may have gotten through his rough patch, so I don’t know that we’ll see a ton of fireworks here. Springer has at least seen Minor a fair amount
Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants
Greinke and the Astros take on Wood and the Giants next, and again, there’s not a lot of history here outside of a few San Francisco bats. Both pitchers are looking pretty good coming into this game, though Wood is looking better, so I’m not sure we’ll see a ton of fantasy production in this one either. Might need to look elsewhere for big stacks on this slate.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Alvarez, Gurriel/Tucker
GPP note – Outside of Gurriel and Tucker, most of this team is coming into this one hitting lefties fairly poorly, and Wood has been strict to both sides of the plate. Not a good mix
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski/Crawford (BvP), Posey, Flores
GPP note – Greinke hasn’t been too bad against lefties, but he’s allowing just a little more power to righties. Consider the BvP options, too
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Oakland and the Angels are up next, with Irvin and Barria starting this one. I think Irvin is an interesting option, as he certainly has the upside to quickly pay off his price tag. Even if he doesn’t rack up a ton of strikeouts, he’s not allowing a ton, so he’s got a good chance to limit the Angels’ upside here.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson, Marte
GPP note – Traditional splits are good against Barria, though he is allowing power to both sides
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, Fletcher, Lagares
GPP note – Irvin isn’t allowing a whole lot to either side, though slightly more to lefties. Might not be much here except for Ohtani
New York Yankees at Miami Marlins
The Bronx Bombers and the Marlins are up next, with German and (as of now) Rogers looking to get the starts here. That may change overnight, so keep an eye out for that, but really, this one looks to favor New York regardless of who Miami starts. They got a hefty upgrade yesterday, so let’s see if they can do more than 3 runs this time around.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton, Gallo/Torres, LeMahieu
GPP note – Rogers seems to be pretty hit-or-miss, but these bats are swinging well enough to really capitalize on a bad outing, so big stacks are in play here
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Anderson, Chisholm
GPP note – German has a big reverse splits gap, so don’t be afraid to grab a righty or two from here
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers
Our favorite budget bomber teams are up next, with a couple of pitchers that are anything but strict, so maybe we’ll see some more chaos here. Means seems to have outlived his inflated price tag, so don’t be afraid to try a game-stack lineup or two from this one.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mullins/Mancini, Severino
GPP note – More reverse splits here; Manning is allowing a ton to righties, so be sure to attack him there
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Schoop, Candelario, Cabrera, Castro
GPP note -Means is a lot softer than his price tag would lead you to believe, and this bullpen isn’t a big threat either, so feel free to stack here
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll wrap up the early slate with the Red Sox and Rays, both of who will be looking to grab some more wins to stay ahead in the standings. These will be important games, so I expect the best from our pitchers here, which might hamper these offenses.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez, Devers
GPP note – Outside of the two above, these guys are a bit cold against lefties right now, and Yarbrough is no gas can
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe/Meadows, Diaz/Choi
GPP note – These bats are running hotter, but Eovaldi is a tough target. I don’t know that big stacks are the answer, but some exposure here would be a good idea just in case
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Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals
We switch to the main slate now, starting with the newly-depleted Cubs against the, well, also a bit depleted Nationals. Both pitchers are worth a look here, as neither offense is very scary, outside of a select few bats. I do think Ross has more upside between the two, if I had to choose only one.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras, Ortega, Happ
GPP note – A very much weakened offense going against a stingy pitcher with a (recent) 31% strikeout rate. Not very pretty!
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto, Bell, Parra
GPP note – Hendricks isn’t getting the strikeouts, but this will certainly be a plus-matchup for him. As for these bats…Soto is about it. Maybe Parra.
Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Nola and Brubaker are up next, as the Phillies take on the Pirates. This one has Philadelphia written all over it, and Nola is in a good spot, so expect him to be a chalky option. He has tons of upside, but does allow some power, so if you like to run contrarian stacks for the sake of ownership, there is at least some merit here. Otherwise, the Philly bats look pretty good, and I expect them to do something good here.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper/Hoskins, Miller
GPP note – Harper and Hoskins lead the way, but a lot of these bats are hitting .180+ ISO against righties, so try some creative stacks here, as the upside will be nice and spread out along the lineup
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds, Polanco
GPP note – Not a ton to love here, but Nola has some reverse splits and is allowing some power to righties, so you could do worse for a contrarian stack than to try one here
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
The Mariners and Rangers are up next, and like the previous game, the visitors look to have the upper hand here. The Seattle bats are hitting well, and now that Gallo is gone, there’s really not much to say about the Texas offense. It gives Anderson a shot at another 7+ strikeout game, so be sure to take some shots with him.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Haniger/Seager, France/Torrens
GPP note – These bats are rolling, and while Hearn isn’t an easy target, they’ll only see him for a couple of innings anyway. Big stacks are in play here, just don’t go tilting if they don’t score 10 runs in the first inning
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Dahl
GPP note – Nothing at all to love here. Only stack these guys if you are hoping for the random game nobody could see coming
Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
Miley and Hill take the mound next, and wow, is Votto on another planet right now or what? Hill isn’t striking out a ton, and they have met before, so don’t be surprised to see another double-digit score from that man here. As for Miley, we know he has some upside, but he’s always up-and-down, so it’s hard to know what we’re going to get out of him from start to start. Alas, hedging him with some Mets’ stacks isn’t a bad idea!
Reds 5 star plays – Votto
Reds 4 star plays – India, Farmer, Winker
GPP note – Votto is ridiculous, but Hill has been allowing some to both sides, so don’t be afraid to attack him here with some medium (or even big) stacks
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Nimmo/Baez, McCann
GPP note – Miley is always worth a look to attack, because when he’s bad, he’s really bad. He’s also really good when he’s good, so I recommend hedging some lineups. Be sure to stack big if/when you go here, as it could snowball quickly if the bad Miley shows up
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
Up next are the Indians and White Sox, with McKenzie and Keuchel getting the nod. The Sox have a comfy lead, but will look to keep it that way, so they’ll need Keuchel to pitch well above his price tag here. The Indians have some bats that are coming in hot, so he’ll have his work cut out for him here, especially since they really need some wins. McKenzie has performed a bit like Miley, so I don’t see why both offenses couldn’t be in play here.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Reyes, Rosario, Perez
GPP note – Stacks are in play here, with the four above swinging the best against lefties. The rest of the team is a little cold, but Mercado might be worth a look
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Sheets, Anderson, Hernandez
GPP note – McKenzie has been mostly decent, but can look like Miley at times by allowing a lot of power, so don’t be afraid to grab some stacks here as well
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Minnesota Twins at St Louis Cardinals
We get the Twins and Cardinals next, with Ober and Woodford starting. It looks to be a pretty average matchup for both pitchers, and I’m not sure either has elite upside of any sort here, so both offenses should have some decent options to roll out.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Donaldson, Polanco, Garver, Kepler
GPP note – They like to dud in good spots, but they do have some bats coming in fairly hot, so do at least consider using them. Traditional splits have the best chance here
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, Carlson/Bader
GPP note – Same story as above, though Ober is allowing big power to both sides, so take some pieces of this offense
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves
We get one of our top-dollar pitchers next, with Woodruff and the Brewers taking on Muller and the Braves. We know what Woodruff is capable of, but don’t count Muller out, as he has flashed some big upside. It won’t be easy for him, even if he is doing well, because the Brewers have some bats that are hitting pretty well right now. We know the Braves have a lot of upside too, so I think it would be wise to grab a little bit of every piece of this game.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Escobar, Garcia, Wong
GPP note – Not a great matchup, but sometimes having enough hot bats can wear down a pitcher, so don’t be afraid to try some stacks here
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Riley, Pederson (some BvP)
GPP note – Bad matchup for the Braves, but when they’re on, they’re on. Contrarian stacks aren’t out of the question here
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Up next are the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, and with what the Dodgers pulled in before the trade deadline, and how close they are to San Francisco, I expect them to just beat up on Arizona here. As of right now it looks like White will be starting, so if he does, there won’t be much to love from the LA pitchers for fantasy purposes. That goes for both teams here, really.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Taylor
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy, Turner, Smith
GPP note – Big reverse splits gap here, so if you’re worried about them being too chalky, try some righties
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – VanMeter, Walker
GPP note – Lefties will have a decent shot to do something early on, but after that it’s anybody’s guess. I’m guessing…not much here.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
We wrap things up with the Rockies and Padres, with two solid pitchers going at it here, with German and Darvish. Both have plenty of upside, but German is actually coming in with a higher strikeout rate as of late. We know Darvish has it in him, so don’t fade him (especially not in this matchup), but don’t forget to have your shares of German, too.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/Story (some BvP), Cron
GPP note – Bad matchup here. Even if Darvish doesn’t strike everybody out, I don’t see them doing a whole lot anyway, so stack at your own risk
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Tatis, Machado, Hosmer, Croneworth, Pham
GPP note – Tough matchup against German, though a lot of these bats have looked pretty good recently. This is another solid hedging opportunity for tournaments
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Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- St Louis Cardinals – Solid matchup against Ober, who is allowing the second-most power on the slate, with several bats coming in fairly hot. Stacks of any size are in play here.
- Cleveland Indians – Keuchel is always worth a look when looking for pitchers to pick on, and he’s allowing a lot of power recently. A solid option on this slate.
- New York Mets – This really depends on which Miley shows up, but if the bad one does, watch out, because these guys could go bonkers.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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