Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/27:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Charlie Morton
- Dane Dunning
- Lance McCullers Jr.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (-177)
Pitchers:
Reds – Vladimir Gutierrez
Cubs – Adbert Alzolay
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Alzolay can be impressive and that makes him an interesting GPP target while the Cubs bats are in a pretty decent spot, especially if Rizzo is starting to heat up. The Reds bats may go overlooked and while I don’t love their lineup without Castellanos, they do have the kind of mini-stack trio that can help you take down a GPP tonight.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Tyler Naquin, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
Houston Astros (-145) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Astros completely fell apart Monday night after starting out huge against the Mariners. I am looking for McCullers Jr to step up big after the pitching blow-up on Monday. Flexen is definitely a tougher pitcher but the Astros have plenty of upside in their lineup, especially when you get a hot bat like Tucker hitting 6th or 7th.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against RHPs this season.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-121)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Phillies – Matt Moore
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. This is a very attractive game both from a total standpoint and from a weak SP standpoint. Both sides have a few guys with plus BvP spots and they just offer strong spots in the lineup. The issue for the Phillies is they can’t seem to get everybody clicking at the same point. If they manage to do that, they could explode at home.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Alcides Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Brad Miller
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-121) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Robbie Ray
Red Sox – Garrett Richards
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. Yet again we should have a very popular match-up between these two dynamic teams. There is some plus BvP, mostly on the Blue Jays side. Ray is the kind of arm that could surprise us at very low ownership. We need to see if JD Martinez is in the lineup as he appeared to jam his wrist last night.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels (-130)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Angels – Jose Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I was shocked to see a total sitting at 9.5 as Gomber has been really solid for Colorado all season and there’s a chance he takes on an Ohtani-less Angels squad as I expect the Angels to start giving him a day off after he pitches at some point, in order to keep him fresh. Suarez isn’t spectacular by any means but the Rockies lineup, especially outside of Coors, is just so damn weak.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 against LHPs this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 against LHPs this season.
Miami Marlins (-125) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Orioles – Spenser Watkins
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Alcantara is certainly the better SP in this match-up but the Orioles are the slightly better offense, especially right now. I don’t mind a share or two of either SP but I don’t think I am going to stack either offense. I really like a Baltimore mini-stack for GPP purposes.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
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Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (-213)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tyler Alexander
Twins – Kenta Maeda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Maeda has faced the Tigers quite a bit recently so there’s going to be some adjustments but he has pitched much better since returning from the IL. The Twins lineup looks so weak overall without Cruz in the middle. I do like the Twins against LHPs and I think they make a very interesting mini-stack with an outside chance at a full-stack paying off.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Brent Rooker, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 against LHPs this season.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Mets – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 against RHPs this season.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 against RHPs this season.
Milwaukee Brewers (-135) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brett Anderson
Pirates – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This is a battle of the LHPs against teams that can struggle a bit. I just don’t get how this Brewers lineup is performing so well, given they just don’t have much depth to it. The Pirates traded away their best hitter so that basically means its Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes only and right now, it’s just Reynolds for me.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tyrone Taylor, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 against LHPs this season.
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays (-145)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This is a pretty low total in my eyes so we probably stick to mini-stacks but I do like the TB lineup a bit with Zunino back and the acquisition of Cruz. I keep waiting on the Yankees to wake up and explode and it’s just not happening. They definitely need Judge back to help the lineup.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Rougned Odor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 against LHPs this season.
TB 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Mike Zunino, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Cleveland Indians (-111)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Indians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Cardinals have a few hot bats right now and that would be where I look in creating a stack or mini-stack. The Indians don’t really have anybody swinging it extremely well so tonight’s probably the night they wake up and break out. I generally only use Wainwright at home but I think I am going to make an exception to that this evening.
STL 5-star plays: Dylan Carlson
4-star plays: Harrison Bader, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
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Chicago White Sox (-135) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I was shocked to see that the White Sox bats haven’t had much success overall against Keller. I do think there’s a chance that changes tonight. I went with 3 White Sox bats below that might be more under the radar plus they are the ones with the most success against Keller. Cease has upside in his arm but the KC lineup can be pesky, especially with Soler heating up quite a bit.
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada
4-star plays: Zack Collins, Leury Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 against RHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 against RHPs this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers (-153)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Taylor Widener
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Varsho and Smith are red-hot bats right now for the D’Backs but that’s about all that’s hot in this game, other than maybe the Texas weather if they have the roof open. Dunning has flashed serious upside so far this season but he could be hitting a bit of a wall. The fact that he takes on an overly weak ARI lineup, who struggles ridiculously on the road, is going to help him out.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Pavin Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 against RHPs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This is going to be a great series to watch as the race is tight in the NL West. Urias needs to step up for the Dodgers and while the Giants have hit LHPs decently well this season, they have struggled a bit over the last 2 months against them. Webb could surprise but I am putting my money on the Dodgers bats this evening.
LAD 5-star plays: Chris Taylor, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Will Smith, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Thairo Estrada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
Oakland Athletics @ San Diego Padres (-140)
Pitchers:
Athletics – James Kapriellian
Padres – Chris Paddack
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Paddack is an enigma for me as he looks the part and then struggles which then leads me to stack against him and then he figures a few things out and is solid enough to frustrate me. Kapriellian has been a stud since entering the rotation and while it’s an extremely tough match-up for him, he’s certainly capable of holding the Padres offense down.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against RHPs this season.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Chicago White Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Kike Hernandez, Boston
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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