The Sway Bar: NASCAR DFS Fades and Values for Sonoma 2021

Right turns are back on the menu! Whew what a week it’s going to be in wine country. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, THE DISCORD! I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.

May 23, 2021; Austin, Texas, USA; Martin Truex Jr. (19) on the second turn in the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

I am not going to categorize drivers this week, just highlight drivers I think can perform from a DFS perspective. There are so so so many strategies you could employ this weekend, but at the end of the day you need to identify one and stick to it. I am attacking this slate like a restrictor plate, meaning I will focus on place differential. I think the field is going to flip after stage one. Everyone in the top 10 will likely run the full first segment, where everyone else will pit right before the stage ends, and lead at the start of stage 2. Dominator points are going to be so hard to anticipate outside of the first stage, so we turn to the devil we know instead of the devil we don’t.

Martin Truex Jr –The whole story of this race, in my opinion, is has Chase Elliott caught up to MTJ in terms of skill at Sonoma. I will go into Chase in a second, but there is no doubt that MTJ is a top two driver here, if not the best. He has won here with three different teams, and boasts a longterm driver rating nearly 20 points above anyone in the field. He is nearly a lock, and should be well inside the top five with ease.

Chase Elliott –Now onto Chase. Chase’s Sonoma stats are actually fairly lackluster, and I feel like people are going to put way too much stock into that. Elliotts ascent into the best road course driver in the field has largely occurred over the last 18 months – after the last time we raced at Sonoma. The way he attacks these tracks is much more effective at Rovals and Watkins Glen, but I think Chase will be just fine here, and I hope people avoid him because of his history.

Kyle Larson- Larson is the third piece of this complex puzzle. He is the polesitter, as he has been before at Sonoma, but in the past his speed here has been limited to short runs. It is my theory that was a reflection of the CGR equipment, and not Larson’s ability. I think there is a very strong possibility that Larson puts us all to sleep again on Sunday.

Kurt Busch – Kurt, who starts 30h, has been a staple inside the top ten at Sonoma over the years, and is a former race winner. This is close to one of my favorite plays of the weekend. I think Kurt can cut through this field and find himself inside the top ten without much issue.

Ross ChastainChastain has made huge leaps in his road coursr ability over the past year, and it really showed up at COTA – where he was logging fast laps while running in the top five. I think that will translate very well and he will be a threat again this weekend.

Chase Briscoe – One of my favorite plays on the slate. Briscoe isn’t getting enough respect for his ability as a road course driver. He routinely ran with Cindric and AJ in the Xfinity series, and we got a glimpse into his ability at COTA. I love this as a DFS play and SHOULD be one of the most highest owned drivers on the slate.

Ryan Newman- Newman should put in a classic Newman performance. Never really excelling, but solidly inside the top 15 all day.

So there it is folks. Those are my favorite plays this weekend.  Keep an eye on the the Discord right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.