Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/30:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Chris Bassitt
- Aaron Nola
- Max Fried
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies (-145)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Rockies – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. Another Coors game with a high total that doesn’t really excite me from an offensive standpoint. Gray is a decent SP while the Pirates are a blah offense. Colorado is actually stronger against LHPs as they have struggled quite a bit against RHPs all season long.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 against RHPs this season.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays (-121) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Rays – Michael Wacha
Nationals – Jon Lester
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. I was shocked to see a total of 10 in this game as Wacha is coming off of a strong start while Lester gets to take on a team that has struggled overall against LHPs this season. I know both of the SPs are nothing like they used to be at this point. The Nationals have the hottest power hitter in baseball right now and he happens to have had strong success against Wacha in his career.
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Manuel Margot, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 against LHPs this season.
WSH 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Starlin Castro, Trea Turner, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (-160)
Pitchers:
Royals – Mike Minor
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. I just can’t believe all the double-digit totals in Fenway. I know I point it out every time but wow. This game is going to see some runs for sure, but ironically it’s two teams that I would prefer to use against RHPs. Both sides have a couple of strong BvP histories.
KC 5-star plays: Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs this season.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Bobby Dalbec
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 against LHPs this season.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-135)
Pitchers:
Twins – Bailey Ober
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Ober is just a guy at this point and while the White Sox had been struggling, they broke out a bit last night thanks to a TON of walks. Cease has the ability to be a strong GPP option but a few of the Twins have hit him pretty well. I think stacking both offenses is viable for GPPs but they aren’t near the top of my rankings.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 against RHPs this season.
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Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees (-130)
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Yankees – Domingo German
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Ohtani just keeps hitting bombs but we can’t use him as a hitter tonight. I can’t believe the sites haven’t figured out how to make that possible yet. German has had an up and down season so I don’t think I will be going there in this one. This one is about finding the one-off HRs and mini-stacks. Ohtani has thrown the ball pretty well so I was surprised to see him as an underdog, in a game with a 9.5 total.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against RHPs this season.
San Diego Padres (-153) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Reds – Vladimir Gutierrez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. We get a double-digit total with the Padres being the visiting team (9th inning AB). I love that setup for our GPP builds. We know how dangerous the offense is and they have seen Gutierrez before. Musgrove has been strong for SD but he’s had some struggles with a couple of CIN bats in his career.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 against RHPs this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St Louis Cardinals (-180)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Riley Smith
Cardinals – Kwang Hyun Kim
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This game is part of a blah early slate where pitching is very weak. Kim is going to draw interest because of the ability he has flashed but the issue becomes how many pitches is he going to throw? He could go 3 innings or he could top out at about 6.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 against LHPs this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 against RHPs this season.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Marlins – Cody Poteet
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 against RHPs this season.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros (-310)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Matt Harvey
Astros – Luis Garcia
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Houston is going to be very popular for what feels like the 14th day in a row. We always want to pick on the artist formerly known as Matt Harvey. Garcia has impressed me enough this season that he always makes my player pools. Again, just stack away with HOU.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians (-172) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Tigers – Jose Urena
Indians – JC Mejia
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Mejia worked out for me the last time he took the mound so I might have to go back to him against the weak Tigers. Cleveland busted out Monday night so I think that propels their ownership a bit here. I want to be on them as they do get a great spot but I might have to scale back for GPP purposes as leverage. Remember that this game will be a 7 inning game.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Cesar Hernandez
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians (-172) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Tigers – Undecided
Indians – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Remember that this game will be a 7-inning game.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Cesar Hernandez
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 against RHPs this season.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (-145)
Pitchers:
Mets – David Peterson
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am a big fan of Fried and I think he has a strong performance but he could have a hiccup or two against Alonso or McCann. McNeil has hit him surprisingly well in his career. The Braves haven’t been overly strong recently but they have hit LHPs extremely well all season long.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: James McCann, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 against LHPs this season.
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Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Cubs – Jake Arrieta
Brewers – Brent Suter (Bullpen game)
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs this season.
Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics (-203)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Kolby Allard
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Bassitt is going to end up one of my top plays on the main slate tonight. I love the way he pitches and he should be able to pick up a decent amount of Ks. He does have to look out for Gallo as he has been heating up plus he has had success against Bassitt in his career. The A’s have struggled against LHPs over the last month or so after starting out super hot. I could see them doing some damage against Allard tonight.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 against LHPs this season.
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays (-195)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Justus Sheffield
Blue Jays – Steven Matz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. Matz makes his return from the COVID list so I have some hesitations. We need to learn about his pitch count limits tonight. The Blue Jays are always a top stack option and tonight is no different. I think there are some SEA bats that could be used as one-off GPP plays tonight.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Luis Torrens
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 against LHPs this season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 against LHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Houston Astros
- Kansas City Royals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Joey Gallo, Texas
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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