It’s often said that you can’t win your fantasy football draft in the first round, but you can certainly lose it. There is also some truth in the reverse. You can’t lose your draft in the last round, but hitting with the right NFL dart throw (James Robinson last year), will put you in a great position to win it. Let’s identify a few fantasy football late round picks who are going in the last couple rounds (or completely undrafted) that could win your league if things break right.
Sep 10, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) runs the ball as Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Tanoh Kpassagnon (92) chases during the game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Late Round Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston
It’s hard to believe that only two seasons ago Famous Jameis led the NFL in passing yards. Only Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Dan Marino, Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, and Jameis Winston have ever thrown for 5,000 yards. Only Drew Brees (5x) has done it more than once. It so happens that Jameis is likely taking over for Brees in the Saints offense that produced such prolific numbers. Fanduel Sportsbook has Winston as a -280 favorite to be the opening day starter.
Winston’s value is obviously being suppressed by the presence of Taysom Hill as a threat to at least his red-zone work, if not the starting job. This risk is baked into his price. If he somehow is established as the starter, Jameis’ ADP would instantly rise 4 or 5 rounds. There aren’t many other QBs that can be drafted this late that have a path to a top ten finish at their position. I also really like stacking Winston with Mike Thomas who seems like a solid value at his mid 3rd round ADP.
Deshaun Watson
We all know that Deshaun Watson is a great quarterback. We all know why his value is completely in the tank. Those points don’t need to be litigated here.
I drafted Watson recently with pick 16.5 in the Underdog Best Ball Mania II tournament, which has 18 round drafts. Watson went off the board one pick after Mo Alie-Cox. My two other QBs were Stafford and Baker Mayfield, guys that I like, but don’t love. They are solid floor guys who probably lack top five positional ceiling.
Most people seem to think Watson doesn’t take a fantasy football snap-in 2021. Perhaps they are right, I honestly have no idea. I do know that sometimes what is assumed in June, turns out to be false by September. A few years ago at this time, people feared Tyreek Hill’s career was over. He wound up being suspended zero games and is now a first-round pick and the first WR taken in most drafts.
Rostering Watson is gross on multiple levels. However, in a draft where I got sniped on various QBs, I simply thought the probability of Watson hitting my optimal lineup multiple times was still higher than the likes of a Mo Alie-Cox type.
In the two most recent Best Ball Mania drafts I did, Watson went completely undrafted. There is value in having a player that is going largely undrafted as you try to differentiate from the other 150k rosters in these GPP style contests. It’s not likely, but not impossible that Watson is playing for the Denver Broncos in week 17. If you drafted him in the last round, and you are the only team in the field who has him stacked with Jerry Jeudy, you might just luck-box your way into a million dollars.
Fantasy Football Running Backs Going Too Low
Gio Bernard
Ronald Jones is an effective runner of the ball, but may have the worst hands of any back in the league. Uncle Lenny aka Playoff Lenny aka Lombardi Lenny did a better job than expected catching passes in Tampa Bay, but he is hardly ideal for the roll.
Tampa brought Gio Bernard in specifically to be Tom Brady’s third-down back. James White can attest to the potential fantasy football value of this role. Bernard is going in the last two rounds of pretty much every draft I’ve done. Most people try to hit a home run with these picks and draft for upside over a guaranteed role. With certain roster constructions, I believe it makes more sense to take the safety that Gio provides. If you are going with increasingly popular hyper-fragile 4 RB build, Bernard is a great fit. You know he’s at least going to get you some points on your bye weeks or in event of injuries.
I feel very confident that there will be 3 or 4 weeks where the game script works in his favor and Gio catches 5 or 6 balls. If he happens to find the end zone in a couple of those weeks, you are golden with your 18th round pick.
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Javian Hawkins
This is the boom/bust swing for the fences type pick that most people prefer to make in the last round of a draft. Picking this year’s James Robinson is a difficult task, but in early June, Hawkins is my best guess.
The Atlanta offense is going to score a lot of points under new head coach Arthur Smith, who maximized Derrick Henry in Tennessee.
The main man blocking him for carries is Mike Davis. Davis, who filled in admirably for CMC last season has been underrated for so long that it now feels like he’s actually overrated. Davis does everything pretty well, but nothing great. He’s been on 5 teams in the last 6 years which leads me to believe that he might be just another guy.
Mike Davis’ fantasy football ADP has seemed to rise a round or two just off a pic showing his thick thighs. How did that work with AJ Dillon?
Hawkins runs a 4.45 forty and was extremely productive in his brief career at Louisville, rushing for 1525 as a redshirt freshman in 2019. It was a bit of a surprise when he went undrafted, but he landed in an ideal spot to shine if Davis falters in any way.
NFL Wide Receivers with Huge Upside
Jalen Guyton/Josh Palmer
Justin Herbert threw for 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns as a rookie, despite not starting week one. The offense should only improve with Anthony Lynn out of coaching the picture.
Keenan Allen isn’t getting any younger, Hunter Henry is a Patriot, and Big Mike Williams struggles to stay on the field. There are targets and pass-catching production up for grabs in LA.
Jalen Guyton showed encouraging chemistry with Herbert as a rookie. His 511 yards and 3 TDs are very respectable first-year numbers for an undrafted player. For a deep threat like Guyton, one big play can get him in your optimal lineup. In best ball, you don’t have to guess and when it’s going to happen.
Josh Palmer is a 3rd round pick out of Tennessee that was a favorite of many draft experts who actually grind the college tape. The WR 3 role for the Chargers is wide open and I’m willing to bet a last-round pick that one of these two pop. I am a volume drafter, so I have been getting fairly equal exposure to both Guyton and Palmer.
Byron Pringle
You have to respect a potato chip heir for continuing to grind it out as an undrafted slot receiver. This may not be true, but it is true that someone is going to have to catch passes in Kansas City besides Kelce and Tyreek.
It seems like the fantasy football community has wanted Mecole Hardman to happen so bad, for so long. Could this be the year? I’m skeptical. I do know that I’d rather have Pringle in the 18th round than Hardman in the 10th.
Pringle reminds me of a poor man’s Jamison Crowder. He’s not the biggest or fastest, but he runs good routes and catches the ball when it’s thrown to him. When those balls are being thrown by Patrick Mahomes, you are going to be fantasy-relevant.
Fantasy Football All Summer Long!
I did not list any fantasy football Tight Ends because I honestly haven’t been taking any in that range. I prefer to only draft two and the sleeper TEs l like (Troutman, Kmet, Everett) go before the last couple rounds.
New names will certainly emerge as late-round values as training camps open this summer. As camps open, our DFS Army 2021 Draft Kit will heat up with all the latest intel.
Better yet, any new VIP to DFS Army receives a FREE ebook teaching you the data-driven tactics to compete in the NFL Milly Maker contests as a thank you! Click the image link below!!
