Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/31:
Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Happy MLB Season and welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric, @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Carlos Rodon
- Corbin Burnes
- James Kaprielian
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Minnesota Twins (-160) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Twins – Jose Berrios
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Twins should be pretty popular against Lopez thanks to some BvP plus their implied run total. I am torn on Berrios because he flashes elite stuff and then he just gives up random HRs and things fall apart some. I want to see what the run total does in the morning as I could see it moving either way.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano
4-star plays: Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against RHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Padres – Chris Paddack
Cubs – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
SD 5-star plays: Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 against RHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Kansas City Royals (-172)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Chad Kuhl
Royals – Mike Minor
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Just not a game that excites me a whole lot other than a couple of one-off bats. Kuhl is making his return from the IL and is probably at around 70-75 pitches. Minor probably is worth consideration but the Pirates have annoyed me the last few days as I have been using SPs against them and they are doing just enough to make it not worth the roster.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jacob Stallings, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 against LHPs this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 against RHPs this season.
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Oakland Athletics (-135) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Athletics – James Kaprielian
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Kaprielian completely shut down the Mariners in his last start as he put up his best line at the MLB level. Gilbert has struggled at the MLB level so far, but he is coming off of a decent start against this OAK squad. I am far more interested in the OAK side, both bats and Kaprielian.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 against RHPs this season.
Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros (-111)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Eduardo Rodriguez
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Jose Urquidy is making his return from the IL to take on a very tough BOS lineup while E-Rod faces an EXTREMELY difficult HOU lineup. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game creep to 9 runs with a very outside shot at moving a full run to 9.5. Houston has a couple of very strong BvP histories.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 against LHPs this season.
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Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians – Game 1
Pitchers:
White Sox – Carlos Rodon
Indians – Tristan McKenzie
Rundown:
Waiting on the updated Vegas information.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs this season.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians – Game 2
Pitchers:
White Sox – Jimmy Lambert
Indians – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the updated Vegas information.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 against RHPs this season.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs this season.
Detroit Tigers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Tigers – Undecided
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against RHPs this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last week.
New York Mets (-190) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Mets – Jacob deGrom
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Arizona gets really lucky and has to face deGrom after the Sunday Night game was rained out. I see basically zero reasons to target bats in this game but if you must, a one-off of McCann at a weaker C position could make sense for GPPs. We know how elite deGrom is but I still worry that they might limit him for a few starts.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: James McCann, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 against RHPs this season.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: ZERO reasons to take bats against deGrom.
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-172)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Joe Ross
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Very shocked to see a 9 total here but I guess we should expect at least 1 team to score 6+ (ATL, most likely). I love some of the BvP for ATL against Ross while WSH has a very weak BvP against Morton but he hasn’t been very sharp this season yet.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Starlin Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 against RHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 against RHPs this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-115)
Pitchers:
Rays – Rich Hill
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Taillon is coming off of a strong start but he struggled against TB previously. Hill dominated against the Yankees but I wonder if he has the stuff to baffle them again. Both of these offenses make for intriguing stacks on the slate while the SPs are usable as GPP options because we need to save some money at SP2 on DK.
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 against RHPs this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 against LHPs this season.
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St Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-177)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Dodgers – Trevor Bauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I am all for this SP match-up and while the Cardinals have solid BvP against Bauer, I think they end up struggling against his current stuff. Flaherty gets things done but he did struggle against the White Sox recently. I can see you making a contrarian argument to stack either offense but I may just use mini-stacks if I am not using the SPs in a lineup.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yadier Molina, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs this season.
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 against RHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants (-130)
Pitchers:
Angels – Dylan Bundy
Giants – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Giants just knocked around Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw on back-t0-back days. They now get to face Dylan Bundy. We are going to have to consider them as a pretty solid stack option at this point. The ball flies a bit better in SF during the day. I think one of my favorite mini-stacks is going to end up being Ohtani-Walsh (if they start Ohtani in the OF).
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against RHPs this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 against RHPs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds (-121)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Vince Velasquez
Reds – Wade Miley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I wish I knew what to do with this game at first look. Miley is returning from the IL and he’s struggled since his no-hitter but PHI isn’t exactly knocking the baseball around the park. Velasquez has been really good but CIN bats have been extremely dangerous against RHPs at home.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 against LHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 against RHPs this season.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Oakland Athletics
- Minnesota Twins
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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