Welcome everyone to the NASCAR DFS Preview for DraftKings and FanDuel: Richmond. For this edition, we will take a quick look at the upcoming Cup Series race at Richmond. This article is brought to you by DFSArmy.com and written by Ryan Larkin. You can catch up with Ryan on Twitter or in the DFSA VIP slack @Larkin8
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Sep 12, 2020; Richmond, Virginia, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. (19) races during the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports
Richmond Raceway
This week the Cup Series heads to Richmond for some more short track action. Richmond is a 3/4 mile, D-shaped track with relatively low banking. Tire wear is massive here. Very similar to Atlanta, Richmond has become a long run track with very few cautions. This is due to drivers focusing on tire wear and their cars handling. Long run speed is vital. Of course, since there’s no practice we really have no idea who will have this long run speed but we will use the previous couple of years of track history to help determine the best plays.
Cup DFS Outlook
Dominators
We have 400 laps at a track with long green flag runs. That means for DraftKings we need at least two but quite possibly a third dominator. Because tire wear is so significant when a driver pits under green flag conditions they are a lock to record fast laps. This will take away some of the fast lap ability of the top tier teams and add a variance degree that is nearly impossible to account for. A couple of years ago Stenhouse split the stages and scored like 45 fast laps as a result. For FD we will look to play two dominators. Because we aren’t reliant on fast laps on FanDuel, we really just need to focus on playing three top tier drivers together and hoping to get the right combo together.
Cup Lineup Construction
With so many laps this week, the potential dominators are the most important aspect of your lineups. Find the drivers you think have the best chance of dominating and get the proper percentages on them first. Then work on getting your value plays in. It is very unlikely that we see the carnage that we saw last week at Martinsville. This means the Davison in the optimal type thing is far less likely. It is possible however in the right circumstances that it works on DraftKings. On FanDuel you will want to work on finding the value plays that will have top 10-15 upsides and some place diff scores. You won’t want to touch anyone without top 15 upside. When you are MMEing on DK you will want to sprinkle ownership around more as well due to the chance someone pits under green and collects a bunch of fast laps. It happens multiple times every race here.
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NASCAR Cup Series Top Plays
Martin Truex Jr.: You basically have to either go way over on MTJ or risk it and hope he has an issue. He has led over 100 laps in 6 of the last 8 races here. 3rd, 1st, 1st, 2nd in his last 4 races. JGR look amazing currently on the 750 HP tracks as well.
Daniel Suarez: If you throw away his race here last year with Gaunt Bros, Suarez has 3 top 10s and an average finish of 12th. He starts 27th this week in a car that has been fast pretty much all year. His upside is top 15 this week and I expect him to be a solid value option
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