Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/16:

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

• Max Scherzer – It’s hard not to like Scherzer in this spot against a Diamondbacks team that isn’t all that great. They come in with an implied run total of just 3.4 as the Nats are -195 favorites here. Scherzer has at least 19 DraftKings points in his first two games of the season and is carrying a 31.8% strikeout rate. He’s the third highest-priced pitcher on the slate but with DeGrom in Coors and Buehler against a tough Padres defense, Scherzer is looking like a high-end spend-up option on this slate.
• Franky Montas – We’re going to go a little cheaper with these next two guys. First up, Frankie Montas, who draws a matchup with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are going to be a team I stream pitchers against all season long due to how weak their offense is. They come in with an implied run total of just 3.7 runs here and Montas bounced back nicely with a 21.3 point fantasy outing last time out. He has some blow-up proof like we saw in his first start, but he’s a high strikeout upside guy that gives us a really nice ceiling at this price tag.
• Yusei Kikuchi – $100 less than Montas and should draw a pretty favorable matchup here as well. People may see the Astros on the other side of this one and just disregard him. However, this offense is really watered down right now, as the Astros put Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Martin Maldonado on the IL yesterday. Kikuchi has at least 17 DraftKings points in each start this season and has looked really good, I love the spot for him here.

We have a BRAND NEW update to our MLB Domination Station lineup optimizer with advanced user-controlled scoring systems inside.  You control how the lineups are built from three main uses of our projections: Points-based, DFSA Grades, or the unique blend of Hybrid Scoring!  The Domination Station will help you create 150 of the highest projected lineups in a matter of minutes. With features that allow you to Like  Love  or Dislike  a player, you can create a fully unique pool of players to generate your lineups from every day. Combine the power of the Domination Station with our VIP Only Articles and the MLB Research Station to really take your game to the next level.

---

Early Slate:

Atlanta Braves (-127) @ Chicago Cubs (+117)

Implied Run Totals:

Braves – 4.0 IRT

Cubs – 3.6 IRT

Rundown:

This is an island early game so if you’re wanting some exposure here you’ll have to play the showdown slates. We don’t have a starter named yet for the Cubs but my guess would be we see Zach Davies here. Davies got hit around pretty good last time out but he’s generally not a guy I love stacking against, he’s always a guy that is pretty good at limiting hard contact. On the other side, we get Drew Smyly starting for the Braves. Due to the wind projected to blow in here at around 10 mph, I think it would be smart to just jam in both pitchers on a showdown slate. My preferred mini-stack for your showdown slate would be the Cubs righties against Smyly, particularly the cheap ones to help you jam in both these pitchers.

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.

4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna

GPP Note: I don’t love attacking Zach Davies, but obviously on a showdown slate you’ll need to. Marcell Ozuna has some decent BvP against Davies in his career, going 7-20, but not a lot of power in those 7 hits.

CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant

4-star plays: Javier Baez, Wilson Contreras

GPP Note: I like these right-handed Cubs bats the most in this game from the offensive side.

---

Main Slate:

Tampa Bay Rays (-) @ New York Yankees (-)

Implied Run Totals:

Rays – – IRT

Yankees – – IRT

Rundown:

We don’t have a spread or implied run total on this one as we wait for the Yankees to name their starter. The Yankees have contemplated going with a 6th man rotation which could include Deivi Garcia, who would be the odds on favorite to draw the start here. I’m going to operate under that assumption, but just keep an eye on that news. Michael Wacha will draw the start for the Rays, he hasn’t been all that great this year, giving up seven earned runs in nine innings pitched. I have no issue going to a Yankees stack here, Wacha is giving up a 64% hard-hit rate on the season.

TBR 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe

4-star plays: Randy Arozarea

GPP Note: One guy to watch here is Lowe, when he starts getting into that home run stroke, he normally rattles off a few in a couple of day span, so if you’re stacking up the Rays in any way I would make sure he’s not left off. Otherwise, just more of a mini-stack for me.

NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge

4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton

GPP Note: I doubt they’ll make my top stacks list, but they have big upside due to the home run potential they bring to the plate.

Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential, to games that could have significant winds that will play a roll in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.

---

Arizona Diamondbacks (+177) @ Washinton Nationals (-195)

Implied Run Totals:

Diamondbacks – 3.6 IRT

Nationals – 5.1 IRT

Rundown:

I talked myself into a decent amount of Arizona stacks last night which was surprising, however, Rich Hill did his best to kill those lineups. I touched on Max Scherzer in my pitcher’s section, he’s one of my favorite options on the slate, so you can jump right off that Dbacks bandwagon if you were thinking of running it back here. Taylor Widener is drawing the start for the snakes, He scored 23.3 DraftKings points in his first outing but followed it up with just 7.1 last time out. He didn’t look all that bad in that game, but he doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to make up for the risk in rostering him here.

ARI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: None

GPP Note: Love me some Scherzer here, I don’t see a reason to want to stack up the Dbacks.

WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto

4-star plays: Trea Turner, Josh Bell

GPP Note: I like this Nats stack as a GPP go to, the top of the order is really nice and Bell has started the season hot.

The MLB DFS Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB ReSearch Station includes today’s  DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as apart of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.

 

St. Louis Cardinals (+119) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-129)

Implied Run Totals:

Cardinals – 4.0 IRT

Phillies – 4.6 IRT

Rundown:

Carlos Santana is drawing the start again for the Cardinals here, and he’s looked pretty average to start the season. He’s giving up seven earned runs across 10 innings but allowing just a 32.4% hard-contact rate. The strikeout rate is extremely low as well, so I don’t think he’s a pitcher you want to play here, but I think he limits the Phillies enough for me to just stay away from that side as a whole. Zach Eflin will take the mound for the Phils, he looked great in his first start but got hit around pretty good last time out. This is really more of a stay-away game than anything for me outside of one-off bats.

STL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado

GPP Note: Just one-offs all around in this one.

PHI 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins

GPP Note: Just one-offs all around in this one.

---

San Francisco Giants (-138) @ Miami Marlins (+128)

Implied Run Totals: 

Giants – 4.6 IRT

Marlins – 4.0 IRT

Rundown:

Anthony DeSclafani will get the start for the Giants, he’s coming off a great game last time out where he dropped 29.3 DraftKings points on the Rockies. He gets another great matchup here against the Marlins in a really nice pitchers park. I have no issue going to him in the mid-range. Daniel Castano draws the start for the Marlins, and I think the Giants should be able to get to him a bit here. They’re going to hit lefties well this season, but I just hate the park factor in this one. More of an MME stack than anything.

SFG 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores, Buster Posey

GPP Note: More of a tournament stack or mini-stack for me, but I think they can get to Castano pretty good here.

MIA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson

GPP Note: I like DeSclafani more than I do this Marlins offense.

---

Cleveland Indians (-106) Cincinnati Reds (-102)

Implied Run Totals: 

Indians – NA IRT

Reds – 4.5 IRT

Rundown:

I don’t think the Indians have named a starter yet, but it would effectively be Logan Allen’s day to go, so we’ll operate under the assumption that’s the case. Allen looked a lot better last time out, but a matchup with the Tigers will tend to do that. The Reds offense has cooled a bit as of late, so I have no issue going to Allen as an SP2 option. Jeff Hoffman will start for the Reds, it’s a nice matchup, but I just don’t think he’s that great of a pitcher, you can make a case for an Indians stack here.

CLE  5-star plays: Jose Ramirez

4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Franmil Reyes

GPP Note: More of a mini-stack type team due to the majority of my interest coming to the middle of the order.

CIN 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Mike Moustakas, Jonathan India

GPP Note: Probably not a team I’ll get a ton of here, I think Webb is going to be solid starter in the MLB.

---

Chicago White Sox (-) @ Boston Red Sox (-)

Implied Run Totals: 

White Sox – NA IRT

Red Sox – NA IRT

Rundown:

We don’t have a total or a spread on this one yet, as it looks like the weather is going to play a big factor. Keep an eye on the Weather Station for updates as we get closer to this one, but it’s probably a case where I’ll stay away from both Dylan Cease and Nick Pivetta. Nothing worse than going into a rain delay in the second inning effectively ending your pitcher’s day. If I was stacking one of these offenses it would be the White Sox, they’re coming off a really nice game and Pivetta has the ability to get hit around a little bit. The Sox bullpen has been better than expected, but I think they’re due for some regression.

CHW 5-star plays: Jose Abreu

4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Yermin Mercedes, Luis Robert

GPP Note: I do like the White Sox a good deal here, they’re expensive but if we can get Andrew Vaughn in there at $2.8k, it’ll help make this stack much cheaper.

BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers

4-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

GPP Note: This Boston team is really hot, but more of a mini-stack against Cease than anything.

---

Baltimore Orioles (+110) @ Texas Rangers (-120)

Implied Run Totals: 

Orioles – 4.1 IRT

Rangers – 4.5 IRT

Rundown:

Generally, I would have interest in the pitcher facing the Rangers, but Jorge Lopez just isn’t very good. He gave up seven earned last time out against the Red Sox. The hard-contact rate isn’t all that bad on him but he’s giving up 3.12 HR/9 which is how the Rangers look to get their runs with guys like Joey Gallo and Nate Lowe. Mike Foltynewicz gets the start for the Rangers and he would have two really nice outings this year if he could cut down on the dang walks. That said, he’s really cheap and has some nice upside against this Orioles lineup, I like him quite a bit as an SP2 type guy.

BAL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins

GPP Note: More interest in Folty on the other side of this one.

TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo, Nate Lowe

4-star plays: David Dahl

GPP Note: I don’t think I want to full-stack them due to how bad the bottom of this lineup is, but mini-stack with the middle of the order power guys is definitely in play.

---

Toronto Blue Jays (-121) @ Kansas City Royals (+112)

Implied Run Totals: 

Blue Jays – 4.5 IRT

Royals – 4.1 IRT

Rundown:

It looks like we’ll have some weather in this game as well, so keep an eye on that Weather Station, especially if you’re looking to play these pitchers. Mike Minor will start for the Royals and has been pretty average this season. We haven’t seen the huge strikeout upside yet, but he’s really cheap if this game appears to be safe from a weather standpoint. Steven Matz has looked great in his first two starts allowing just two runs and averaging 25.3 DraftKings points per game. I don’t want much to do with this Royals offense here due to how effective he has been to start this season out.

TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero

4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Randal Grichuk

GPP Note: I would have some interest in those power-hitting righties of the Jays.

KCR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Whit Merrifield

GPP Note: I like Matz a good deal here, I don’t know how much I’ll use him as a pitching option, but he should be able to hold the Royals down in this one.

MLB season is upon us! DFSArmy VIP Members had a big season last year and are in for some big things again this season! We will have cheat sheets, breakdowns, and many other tools to help make you successful in one of the more volatile fantasy sports.

Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-152)

Implied Run Totals: 

Pirates – 3.8 IRT

Brewers – 4.8 IRT

Rundown:

I wanted to write up Adrian Houser as one of my top pitchers relative to his price, but the spot isn’t as good as it seems in that same price range as Kikuchi and Montas. The Pirates may not be a great offense but they don’t strike out all that much and the strikeout upside on Houser isn’t great either. So probably more of a spot that I’ll just stay away from and spend that extra money to get to Kikuchi or Montas. JT Brubaker will get the start for the Pirates and has looked pretty good to start the season. He has a strikeout rate of 23.8% and we know the Brewers will help you there, I don’t hate him as a GPP option.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier

GPP Note: I won’t be stacking up the Pirates much this season, and this isn’t one of those spots.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich

4-star plays: Travis Shaw, Omar Narvaez

GPP Note: I think Brubaker is good enough to hold the Brewers down, but that bullpen may make things a little frisky.

---

New York Mets (-295) @ Colorado Rockies (+240)

Implied Run Totals: 

Mets – NA IRT

Rockies – NA IRT

Rundown:

Jacob DeGrom was scheduled to pitch yesterday but due to the rain postponement, the Rockies will get him tonight. Generally, you can make a case for stacking any team, any time, in Coors field, but I’m not touching the Rockies here, DeGrom has looked elite again to start the season. The Mets however, look to be one of the top stacking options on the slate. Gonzalez really hasn’t been terrible, but this Mets offense has some firepower and the park factor is huge. They’re not as priced up as they should be either, love them in this spot coming in as near -300 favorites.

NYM 5-star plays: Peter Alonso, Francisco Lindor

4-star plays: Dom Smith, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto

GPP Note: I’ll have no issue making the Mets a top stacking option here.

COL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Ryan McMahon

GPP Note: I won’t be stacking against DeGrom, but there are some fine one-offs here.

---

Minnesota Twins (+156) @ Los Angeles Angels (-166)

Implied Run Totals: 

Twins – 3.9 IRT

Angels – 5.1 IRT

Rundown:

If you look at Andrew Heaney’s game logs, you can a really good representation of what he is as a pitcher. One day he’ll look great and the next time out he’ll give up seven runs. Generally, he’s an ownership play for me, if he’s low-owned you can go ahead and play him, but if he’s chalky I have no issue gaining some leverage and stacking against him. The Twins do have some firepower in their offense so I won’t blame you for going either way in this one. Lewis Thorpe will get the start for the Twins and struggled in 16 innings last season, I think you can go to the Angels pretty safely here.

MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz

4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver, Byron Buxton

GPP Note: Any time Cruz gets a lefty on the mound I’ll have some interest, this stack is playable as well.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani

4-star plays: Anthony Rendon

GPP Note: I like the Angels a good deal in this one, the implied run total looks like as does the matchup.

---

Detroit Tigers (+162) @ Oakland Athletics (-177)

Implied Run Totals: 

Tigers – 3.7 IRT

Athletics – 4.9 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Frankie Montas at the beginning of the article, I like him quite a bit as a cheaper SP2 option, he has a huge upside at this price tag. Jose Urena will take the mound for the Tigers and I love this spot for the Athletics. Urena is struggling with walks to start the season, with a WHIP over 2.00 and a bad bullpen behind him, the A’s make for one of the better stacking options on the slate for me due to the power and speed upside they’ve shown to start the season.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Wilson Ramos, Akil Baddoo

GPP Note: I’ll have much more interest in Montas than this Tigers offense

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano

4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscontty, Mark Canha

GPP Note: Love the Athletics stack here, if Urena starts having walk issues again, the A’s could be circling the pillows quite a bit tonight.

---

Houston Astros (-106) @ Seattle Mariners (-102)

Implied Run Totals: 

Astros – 4.1 IRT

Mariners – 4.0 IRT

Rundown:

I touched on Yusei Kikuchi a bit in my pitcher’s section, I think he gets overlooked here, as people see the Astros and immediately walk away. As I mentioned, they put a handful of guys on the IL yesterday so this lineup is going to be really watered down and Kikuchi has looked good to start the season. Jose Urguidy will get the start for the Astros, he’s priced way up but he’s looked solid to start the season. He gets a park upgrade for pitching and this Mariners lineup isn’t so pretty.

HOU 5-star plays: Carlos Correa

4-star plays: Myles Straw, Michael Brantley

GPP Note: I’ll have a good deal of Kikuchi here especially if he is coming in lower owned.

SEA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Mitch Haniger

GPP Note: Haniger is about the only bat I want here, Urquidy is a solid pitcher.

---

Los Angeles Dodgers (-154) @ San Diego Padres (+142)

Implied Run Totals: 

Dodgers – 4.5 IRT

Padres – 3.6 IRT

Rundown:

Walker Buehler will take the mound for the Dodgers in a tougher matchup against the Padres, but as we know, many of these aces are pretty matchup proof. Buehler has looked fine to start the season but we haven’t seen a whole lot of strikeout upside, it will come, he’s a solid SP1 option on this slate. Ryan Weathers will get thrown to the wolves here as he takes the mound against one of the better offenses in baseball. He’s been out of the bullpen to start the season but has looked good in his brief stints, I still think you can get to the Dodgers pretty comfortably in this one.

LAD  5-star plays: Mookie Betts

4-star plays: Justin Turner, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Corey Seager

GPP Note: Tough not to like the Dodgers here, I’m more than okay with a full-stack.

SDP 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado

GPP Note: I’m more prone to go with a mini-stack here than a full one, but as we know, this lineup is loaded.

Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

1. New York Mets: Real bold right? Going with the away team at Coors.. but I think they are the best stack on the slate. They don’t have an implied run total up yet and it’s supposed to be pretty cold, but the ball should still be flying. Especially against Chi Chi Gonzalez, who hasn’t looked terrible this season, but is more than prone enough to get hit around here. I’m hoping they can finally give DeGrom some run support here in a great spot.
2. Oakland Athletics: Right back to the A’s! They’re running more than I think most people would have thought to start the season, Laureano especially, who has double the amount of steals than anyone in the league. Urena is struggling with walks already to start the season, whenever a guy struggles with command I love stacking against them. Not only will they put guys on base, but it means he’s missing his spot leaving some balls right down the middle for batters to knock those guys on base in. Love me some A’s tonight.
3. New York Yankees: Similar to the A’s stack, the Yankees face a pitcher that has had some command issues to start the season in Michael Wacha. Wacha’s issues aren’t quite as extreme but with an ERA at 7.00 and a WHIP near 2.00, the Yanks should have some good opportunity here. Not only that but he’s giving up a 64% hard contact rate to start the season, that should come down, but that is a large number for the Yankees to take advantage of.

---

MLB Dinger of the Day – Matt Olson (DK – $4.4k; FD – $3.1k)

I’m going right back to those Oakland Athletics that I mentioned and I think Mr. Olson goes yard here. Going back to last season he had an ISO of 0.254 against lefties which is 40 points higher than it was against righties, to go along with a 0.344 wOBA and a 0.478 SLG. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dong predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game.  Come inside and check us out!!  We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis.  Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.

When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your membership each and every month!

–> Join the Winning Team Now! <–