Welcome everyone to the NASCAR Cup Series DFS Preview. For this edition, we will take a quick look at the Daytona 500. This article is brought to you by DFSArmy.com and written by Ryan Larkin. You can catch up with Ryan on Twitter or in the DFSA VIP slack @Larkin8
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Daytona 500
The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series is getting fired up with its first points paying race, the Daytona 500. It is NASCAR’s most important and prestigious race. It takes place on a 2.5-mile behemoth of a track build by NASCAR founder Bill France in the late 50’s. The added intensity makes for quite the high pressure, action packed event. For DFS it is also our biggest event with Draftkings and FanDuel offering their biggest prize pools of the year. At Daytona, the cars run in huge packs due to the draft. This often leads to big wrecks taking out large portions of the field. Chaos is common. It is in many ways the hardest race to predict but with the one constant being absolute carnage is bound to happen.
Feb 16, 2020; Daytona Beach, Florida, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver William Byron (24), NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) and NASCAR Cup Series driver Bubba Wallace (43) during the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports
Quick Race Facts
Date: February 14th
Practices:
Sat., Feb. 13, 9:30-10:20am, FS2
Sat., Feb. 13, 12:05-12:55pm, FS1
Race: Green flag: 3:05pm/et
(Stages 65/130/200 laps = 500 miles)
TV: FOX
AVG. # of Cautions: 8 (Excluding Stage Breaks)
AVG. # of DNF’s: 16
Defending Champion: Denny Hamlin
DFS Outlook
Dominators
We don’t usually concern ourselves will dominators too much at Daytona. The way the cars run now makes it easier to get runs and pass the leader if someone wants to. If someone wants to is the key part of that statement though as we normally get a couple of stretches where the field gets single file and one driver leads a chunk of laps. That being said those laps led only matter if that driver is able to avoid the carnage and make it to the end. In reality, you shouldn’t be basing your lineups around whether a driver can lead or not. If a driver does then it is that extra bit that could propel you to a big score but it is not something that is predictable by any means.
The Big One
The big one is a big wreck that takes out a large chunk of cars. At the Superspeedways like Daytona, it is a fairly common occurrence. Avoiding these kinds of wrecks is crucial for having a successful day. From a DFS mindset, a wreck is a killer especially for anyone who starts in the front half of the field. A large negative place differential for a wrecked driver/s makes it really hard for a lineup to cash. These Daytona races are averaging 8-9 cautions and somewhere around 16 DNFs per race. It doesn’t matter where you run either. You can be Quin Houff and get dumped on the backstretch for blocking or you can get caught in the big pack charging for the lead late. With so much on the line, there is bound to be carnage which will shake things up massively.
Lineup Construction
Because of the lack of dominator potential and the near guarantee that we will see a large DNF total, the way we play DNF for Daytona is different than normal. We look to attack drivers starting deep in the field. Drivers who offer huge place differential potential. For cash, we look for drivers who will stay out of trouble and finish the race. Playing drivers like McLeod makes a lot of sense here. Finding high place differential plays and top finishers is the goal. It can be difficult to predict who these drivers might be but you do your best to find drivers in the best situations to score well. A lot of lineup building for Daytona is doing your best to find drivers in advantageous positions with good track history.
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Top Plays
Austin Cindric: Cinidric is starting 39th with a car technically good enough to win. There will essentially be 5 Penske cars in the field for the 500 when you include Matty D, and I think this group has the ability to boss this race. Since this is the case and Cindric offers so much place differential upside, Austin is my top play of the race. You have to consider him a near lock in cash as well as someone to play a lot of in GPP’s.
Martin Truex Jr.: Truex is my pick to win the race. I loved the speed the Gibbs Toyota’s showed in the Duels and Truex looked to potentially have the best car of the group. Starting 26th he offers great place differential upside and anything inside the top 10 would be a great day. I expect the Gibbs drivers to play it safe early to avoid any possible incidents and work their way to the front late. Teammate Hamlin starting 25th is in a similar spot as Truex. Both would be good to play together.
Ross Chastain: Ross will take over the #42 for Chip Ganassi for the first time. He is a really good Superspeedway racer from what we have seen over the last couple years. Ross tends to make good decisions and is there at the end. He has a great teammate in Kurt Busch but there are also a lot of close connections for him to work with. Jamie McMurray and Corey Lajoie at Spire are running Ganassi cars and are essentially teammates this week. I think this is a strong 4 car team that could use the play it safe until late tactic. Chastain starts 34th so he has a safe floor and he is definitely someone I could see finding his way into the top 10.
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Check out some of our other DFS Army NASCAR content for the 2021 season!!!
NASCAR Cup Series Season Preview
NASCAR Truck Series Season Preview
2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series Season Preview
DFS Army Strategy Series – NASCAR Scoring Fanduel vs Draftkings
This will conclude this edition of NASCAR Cup Series Preview. If you would like to reach out and talk NASCAR Follow me on Twitter @Larkin8 or of course Become a VIP member and join me as well as our other DFS Army NASCAR contributors (Brady Miller and Taco) in the NASCAR coaching channels.