BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 256 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 10-fight PPV card back at the Apex in Vegas. This is a low-key awesome card and DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $18 buy-in & $150k goes to 1st place with $600k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Chase Hooper $9,300 vs Peter Barrett $6,900
Chase Hooper
Age: 21
Height: 6’1
Weight: 145
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Combat Sports & Fitness
From: Washington
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -380
Chase Hooper’s stock crashed a bit in his last match. He was a massive favorite against Alex Caceres but was dominated for fifteen minutes. It didn’t drop his status too far though, as he enters this spot once again a huge favorite. Hooper tries to fight long on the feet & is a southpaw. Hooper is still very green on the feet. He will work behind his one-two, and his straight-left hand is fairly accurate. He really doesn’t throw many punches besides that combination. Hooper is very kick heavy. He has no fear of his kicks being caught because he wants to be on the ground anyways. Hooper will throw nice front kicks to the body & head. He will throw knees up the middle as well. He can go to the well with those kicks a bit too much & get countered and stunned. He has been hurt badly in multiple fights but does have heart & durability. He is also able to flop to his back where he is confident he can defend himself. Hooper does not have good hands & if opponents can cut the cage off & force him to fight in close quarters he has nothing. He stands tall & is very hittable both to the body & head. He also lacks the power to back opponents off him. We saw in his fight with Caceres, he was overextending on his punches & getting countered. Hooper has two TKO’s, but both were on the ground. His chin is strong now, but I am worried about him getting hit so much at a young age. His career may not be very long. Hooper needs to get this fight to the ground any way he can here.
Chase Hooper is a dangerous submission artist. Hooper has four submissions in eight wins. He is comfortable on top & on his back. The problem with Hooper is he hasn’t quite gotten efficient with his wrestling. He rarely shoots takedowns, and just lacks the drive to finish most of the time. Hooper will actually time singles & doubles well, but usually can’t finish. He will clinch up & pull guard, and has no issues being on his back. He will immediately look for triangles, armbars & leg locks. Hooper’s length creates a lot of issues for opponents. Even if they pass his guard, he will still lock up inverted triangles. He will simultaneously be looking for armbars, kimuras & leg locks if opponents give the opening. Hooper has excellent sweeps as well, and in top position is solid. The flexibility in his legs allows him to create 50-50 positions or back takes that are very unorthodox. He usually is able to win the scrambles & take top position. He had a sick, deep half guard sweep against Luis Gomez in their match. In top position, Hooper will get the mount & work opponents over with hard shots until they give their backs. When they do he is pretty proficient at locking in rear naked chokes. Hooper has had issues sticking submissions in the past, along with holding down explosive athletes. Hooper usually needs to take a beating to get opponents tired before he can control them. Hooper won’t usually defend takedowns traditionally. He will use front chokes to snap opponents down and flows between guillotines, anacondas & darces. Hooper is going to have the advantage on the mat and is opportunistic with submissions. Hooper is a gamer & has no quit. He will survive through adversity & finish or take over the fight late. His ground game is very high level & dangerous.
Peter Barrett
Age: 34
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 73”
Gym: Sityodtong Boston
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +315
Peter Barrett is once again being brought in to lose. He did the job in his debut against Youssef Zalal, but not without a fight. Barrett took everything Zalal had for fifteen minutes, but just got absolutely battered. Now he’s coming in to face the young up & coming kid, Chase Hooper, & is once again a big underdog. Barrett isn’t a bad striker, but his movement is a little awkward. He is a southpaw & throws a lot of inside leg & body kicks. He has a good straight-left hand & likes to throw a right hook, duck under, roll through & throw a left hook. He can fall into his punches & be susceptible to counters along with lessening the power on his shots. He does throw nice right hook, left uppercut combinations with a lot of heat on the uppercut. Barrett does have decent punch combinations and will go to war. He will throw some crazy spinning attacks. In this fight, I think he is going to be at a major speed disadvantage. He holds his hands down and tries to bait fighters to trade but that just gets him pot shotted from the outside. Barrett needs to get in the clinch where he throws nasty knees & elbows and make it ugly. Barrett is more of a brawler & he is dangerous. He has seven KO/TKO finishes. He has been finished once by strikes.
Peter Barrett is not the best grappler. He is a scrappy guy & will try to mix it up. In his last fight, he was able to use clinch control time, and some well-timed takedowns to win a decision. Barrett’s takedown defense is not good. He can be taken down very easily & throws a lot of naked kicks. Once Barrett is taken down he isn’t the best. He can give up submissions and doesn’t have a good guard. He was able to defend a lot of deep front chokes vs Zalal. His offensive wrestling just isn’t very good either. Barrett has just two submissions against very low-level competition. Barrett is a scrapper, but he does slow down and doesn’t have the best cardio.
I wouldn’t lay -400 on Hooper against anybody in the UFC. If you like Hooper here, just bet the submission prop because that is his biggest edge and the most likely outcome of this fight. Hooper is not a good wrestler, but Barrett has bad takedown defense and if Hooper can get him down, he probably does get a sub. Hooper is a bad striker too though, so he has to win with grappling and he is very hittable on the feet. I think Barrett is very live for a KO here, so I will go out on a limb and take him to get it.
With only 10 fights (currently) on this card, I am probably going to end up overweight on both sides of this fight. Hooper is in play because he should be able to dominate on the ground and he can get a submission at any time. If he wins this fight it will be grappling heavy and he has 110+ point upside. I also want some Barrett because he is the cheapest fighter on the card which always keeps people away and I think he can get a 1st round KO and break the slate right out of the gates. This is going to be a fight that I target in more than half of my lineups and my preferred play is actually Barrett since I am taking him to get the KO upset. Not a lot of confidence but I do want to be overweight to the field on him.
Winner – Peter Barrett via 1st round (T)KO
Tecia Torres $8,900 vs Sam Hughes $7,300
Tecia Torres
Age: 31
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 61”
Gym: P4P Fit
From: Florida
UFC Record: 7-5
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -485
Tecia Torres is getting to stick on the card here as the UFC has found her a short notice replacement. Torres was originally scheduled for a rematch with Angela Hill, but she will now be facing some much lower in the rankings in Sam Hughes. Torres is one of the most notable Strawweights in UFC history & she proved that once again in her last fight. After losing four straight to really top girls she was counted out against newcomer Brianna Van Buren but dominated as the underdog. She will look to parlay that performance into another win here. Torres is probably the better striker here. She has crisper movement and uses lateral movement to counter much better. Torres is good at moving backwards, keeping range with counters & kicks, & then blitzing in occasionally with offense of her own. Torres likes to throw counter hooks while moving backwards. She has nice front & sidekicks to the body. She has a quick one-two and will blitz forward to the body & head with decent punches. Torres sets her blitzes up well with fakes & feints. Her striking just isn’t too impactful. She isn’t powerful & stronger girls in the division have been willing to eat her shots, walk her down & take one to give one. Torres also is very risk adverse at times & allow opponents to dictate the fight. Torres was hardly ever able to get inside on Marina Rodriguez. Torres is hard to hit, has a good chin & never has been finished. Torres has no finishes with strikes herself.
Tecia Torres is a pretty strong grappler. She is one of the physically stronger, more athletic girls for the division which gives her an advantage. Torres is pretty explosive, and her in & out, blitzing, striking style creates openings for double legs. Torres is also very strong in the clinch. Torres isn’t the best wrestler, but she can mix it up at times. Her top game is nothing to write home about, and she isn’t very dangerous on the mat either. Torres’ defensive wrestling isn’t bad but isn’t great. She can give up takedowns and be grinded out. Torres is a good scrambler with an active guard and isn’t a slouch on bottom. She just can get taken down multiple times which leads to her losing rounds. Torres is going to need to have her defensive wrestling on point for this fight. Torres has one submission & never been finished. Torres has also never had a cardio problem, always coming in top shape.
Sam Hughes
Age: 28
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 64.5”
Gym: Catalyst MMA
From: Washington
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +350
Sam Hughes is getting a huge opportunity as she gets to face a top fifteen opponent in her debut. Hughes has a record of 5-1 but hasn’t faced super tough competition. She has proven herself though. Hughes had a great fight with Vanessa Demopoulos, where she dominated for the entirety of the fight before getting caught in a submission in the fifth round. Hughes came back & took out a 4-1 opponent in the first round which got her this UFC shot. Hughes is going to have a good size advantage here. She is a good bit taller and has competed at a higher weight classes. Hughes is a grinder, she comes forward, stays in her opponent’s face, & has decent boxing. Hughes will rip the body & throw low kicks to try to break her opponents down. She has a decent jab. Hughes will come forward with nice one-twos & jab, overhand rights. Hughes will throw some superman punches at times. Other than the low kicks, she isn’t a very active kicker. I’ve seen her throw a few high kicks. When Hughes can crash the distance, her boxing isn’t bad, and she can get her wrestling going. Against higher level athletes & strikers I do think she is going to struggle to get on the inside. Hughes is very hittable herself & doesn’t have a lot of speed. She is tough & durable. Hughes is going to need to get this fight down to the mat to have a chance in this one.
Sam Hughes is a good but not a great grappler. She does a good job of using her striking to setup her level changes. Hughes will use her forward pressure to back opponents to the cage & control in the clinch. Hughes has good dirty boxing in the clinch. She punches her way into body locks well. Hughes’ wrestling is not bad, but I struggle to see her getting takedowns on Torres. When Hughes gets on top she is very aggressive and has solid ground & pound. Her BJJ isn’t great but she has a couple submission victories on her record. Hughes has great cardio which is her best asset.
Angela Hill was pulled from this fight, so Sam Hughes is stepping up on less than a weeks’ notice to make her UFC debut. This is a tough matchup against a well-rounded vet in Torres who looked as good as she ever has in her last fight. Hughes doesn’t look bad though and she seems decent in the striking and grappling department, but it looks like she prefers to get the fight to the mat. Torres should just be too fast and experienced for her here to give her any real edge so I will pick the favorite to get her hand raised with a 30-27 decision.
This could burn me, but I might just X this fight out of my player pool. Neither side will be very owned, so it could be a contrarian piece that wins somebody $150k, I just don’t see it. Torres should have the edge everywhere here, but she isn’t a finisher, and she has never 10x’d an $8.9k salary. She has 10 UFC fights and the most she has scored on DK is 86. I would probably rather just punt with the underdog in all formats if I had to use this fight, but Torres could be a sneaky GPP play and she is a “safe” cash option as well.
Winner – Tecia Torres via Unanimous Decision
Billy Quarantillo $8,500 vs Gavin Tucker $7,700
Billy Quarantillo
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Gracie Tampa South
From: Florida
UFC Record: 3-0
Last Fought:
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -165
Billy Quarantillo has had a great start to his UFC career. He has gone 3-0 with two finishes. His last fight he had a nasty, straight-right hand knockout. Quarantillo is on eight fight winning streak. If Billy Q can get by Gavin Tucker, especially if it’s in style, he will get a big fight his next outing. Billy Q is a pressure striker on the feet. He has good boxing, throws in combination and mixes it up to the body & head. Billy has a really nice jab. He has a nasty left hook. It is a long hook and he can land it from very far out. He usually follows that hook with an overhand right or right hook to the body. He will throw nasty hooks and uppercuts inside along with body shots. He drowns opponents with forward pressure. Billy Q was landing a really nice low kick in his last match. He was ripping the body with hard kicks as well. Quarantillo melted Kyle Nelson, and then finished him with a brutal right cross that face planted him. Quarantillo will throw a lot of naked low kicks that get him countered. He holds his hands very low & walks into bombs in a lot of fights. He ducks his head a lot by throwing wide, along with getting countered with tighter shots. He also just isn’t the fastest guy overall. In this fight, he should stick to boxing only. He is a zombie that wears the damage & continues to come forward. Quarantillo is willing to take damage & gives out damage in a lot of fights and breaks a lot of guys that way. He has been knocked out with a head kick in the past. Quarantillo is able to do that to a lot of guys. He has six career KO/TKO’s.
Billy Q has nasty clinch attacks. He throws brutal knees to the body. Billy Q isn’t normally an offensive wrestler, but he can do it. He showed off some nice takedowns against Jacob Kilburn. Quarantillo was able to snap Kilburn down with a front choke in the first round and dominated in top position. He showed good floating & passing ability and was constantly attacking ground & pound or submissions. Kilburn wasn’t a high-level guy, but it showed Quarantillo’s aggressiveness when he gets on top. Quarantillo hit a takedown quickly into round two, took mount, attacked an armbar then transitioned to a triangle and closed the show. Billy will use combinations to create entries into takedowns, usually double legs. He doesn’t have the greatest takedowns though. He gets opponents down most of the time by pressuring them and forcing them to shoot. Quarantillo’s takedown defense is not good. He can off balance himself with his punches & squares his hips as he pressures sometimes. Quarantillo isn’t bad off his back, but not great. He can be too aggressive going for subs and give up his back or the mount. Both Kamuela Kirk & Spike Carlyle were able to take Quarantillo’s back. Carlyle was able to just out muscle Billy Q in a lot of positions especially early and put some big ground & pound on him. Billy has a never say die attitude. He has great cardio & a lot of heart. Billy has 4 submission victories & has never been submitted.
Gavin Tucker
Age: 34
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 66”
Gym: Titans MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 3-1
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +145
Gavin Tucker picked up the finish victory in his last match. He defeated Justin Jaynes via third round rear naked choke after surviving an early storm. This was one of the better performances of Tuckers’ UFC career. Tucker showed off all facets of his game, and really dominated other than a couple big moments from Jaynes. Tucker is a solid striker. A lot of his striking is predicated on his speed & athleticism. Tucker is pretty flat footed, but he is very quick & can move in & out very quickly. Tucker has pretty good feints & head movement. He will throw a lot of nice kicks from the outside while looking for counters. Tucker will throw heavy low kicks. He will switch stances & throw them to the inside & outside. Tucker has pretty good round & front kicks to the body. Tucker had a lot of success in his last fight with his rear leg, body & head kicks from southpaw. Tucker likes to slip & rip with big overhands. Tucker looks to catch fighters with lead hooks as they try to get inside. He will land some nice body shots then come back to the head. Tucker was mixing in some front knees against Jaynes. Once Jaynes got tired, Tucker did a good job of making the cage small, keeping the jab in Jaynes’ face, attacking the body & draining him. Tucker did get dropped with a big uppercut against Jaynes. He isn’t the best boxer & fighters that can get past his kicks can exploit him with boxing on the inside. Rick Glenn was able to get inside & largely dominate the boxing exchanges. Tucker is still shifty & powerful, so it’s not easy to get inside on him. If he has a speed advantage on his opponent, he can style on them how he did in his last match. Tucker has four knockouts. He has never been finished by strikes.
Gavin Tuckers grappling has won him his last two fights. Tucker is a Renzo Gracie black belt & decent wrestler. Tucker has a good single leg, and solid timing on his body locks. Tucker was able to grind out Seung Woo Choi. He landed several takedowns and did a good job of staying connected to Choi & getting him tired with mat returns when Choi would work his way up. Tucker took his back in the third & choked him out. Tucker was able to survive a deep guillotine choke against Jaynes. He immediately transitioned to an arm triangle when he got free, and Jaynes got saved by the bell. When Tucker got a tired Jaynes down in the third, he was able to find the submission and close the show. Tucker got yet another rear naked choke. Tucker has six submissions. His cardio is really good & he is a super tough guy. Tucker has never been finished in his career.
This is one of many great fights on this card. Quarantillo is a late starter but he is a volume machine. I would give him the grappling edge as well because I really only like Tucker on the mat if he is in top control. Tucker is a solid striker with good movement, and I think he will give Billy trouble on the feet here, especially early. I see Tucker winning round 1, Quarantillo winning round 3, and it all coming down to who does more in round 2. I am going back and forth on this one but right now I am leaning with Billy Q because I would expect him to throw more volume as the fight moves along, and I think he is more likely to get a finish if there is one.
Quarantillo is going to be my preferred play here because he has a higher ceiling. I do like both sides of this fight, but I probably end up with more Quarantillo and if only making 1 lineup, I would lean him there as well. He has scored over 100 DK points in 2 of his 3 wins so far and he scored 139 in his first UFC fight. I love that ceiling and he could get close to that here as well if he is able to dominate. I think this is a close fight though and it could be back and forth where the winner only scores around 10x. I want both sides of this fight, but we can get away from it and I expect Quarantillo to be fairly popular at his price with that 106.3 average next to his name.
Winner – Billy Quarantillo via Unanimous Decision
Mackenzie Dern $8,700 vs Virna Jandiroba $7,500
Mackenzie Dern
Age: 27
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: RVCA
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 4-1
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -190
Mackenzie Dern picked up the biggest win of her career in her last match. She defeated the veteran Randa Markos via first round submission. Dern has done well going 4-1 in the UFC overall. She only has one career loss to legit contender Amanda Ribas. Now she is getting a very intriguing matchup in fellow Jiu-Jitsu girl Virna Jandiroba. Dern has improved with her striking. She is throwing straighter punches down the pipe and has better head movement. Dern still shows some amateur defense; Pulling back with her chin high & just having bad defense moving backwards. Dern does have good forward pressure, nice low kicks and isn’t afraid to throw down. She will wing big overhands and throws heavy hooks in the pocket. Dern is one of the bigger girls in the division & one of the harder hitters. She has better striking than Jandiroba in my opinion, because she’s more explosive and has more power. She also has good volume and is willing to throw.
Mackenzie Dern is obviously one of the most dangerous girls in the division on the ground. Dern is dangerous in all phases of grappling. In the clinch, she will try to jump on the back. She has some nice knees. Dern has an improved single leg and will use the double leg to finish or pull guard. In top position, Dern is a back taker in MMA and will finish fights quickly. Dern has a dangerous high guard and will attack armbars and triangles. Dern is arguably the best leg locker in women’s Jiu-Jitsu history. It’s going to be interesting to see if Jandiroba is confident enough to take Dern down and play in her guard. We saw Randa Markos and Hannah Cifers try to and fall victim to submission. Dern showed off her leg lock game against Cifers. Dern has six submissions & is a finisher. She has good cardio & durability.
Virna Jandiroba
Age: 32
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 64”
Gym: Fight House
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-1
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +165
Virna Jandiroba sliced through Felice Herrig like butter in her last match. She got a quick takedown and finished with an armbar very early into the first round. Jandiroba has been pretty dominant in her UFC career getting both her wins via finish. She dropped her debut to Carla Esparza, but even that fight was competitive. Jandiroba isn’t the greatest striker. She is slow & a bit stiff with her technique. She will throw a jab, left hook combination out there. She will throw a one-two or jab, overhand right. She throws a lot of round kicks to the body. When she throws shots, she leaves herself very open to counters. She doesn’t bring her hands back to her face fast enough, and fighters that can see her slower shots coming can counter her. She doesn’t move her head & her chin is high. If she is forced to strike, she looks uncomfortable & will shoot some bad takedowns. She has never been finished & has no KO/TKO’s herself.
Jandiroba has no secret of where she wants the fight. She wants to put opponents on their backs. She is a strong wrestler. She has nice timing on double legs. She will hit nice body locks. In the clinch, Jandiroba is tricky and will hit sacrifice throws, and trips. On top, she is excellent. She has tremendous guard passing ability & a solid game. She likes to move to half guard where she is heavy & has nice, short elbows. She will look for arm triangles. Jandiroba will attack with a guillotine, crucifix position & mount take from there. She will fake like she is going to go for a guillotine & move right into mount. She has a high mount with amazing control & will look for armbars & triangles. She will take the back & has nice rear naked chokes. All she needed was one back take against Mallory Martin and the fight was over shortly after. Martin was attacking chokes instead of defending takedowns, and kind of gave Jandiroba the fight she wanted. Jandiroba had an easy fight her last time out quickly getting the takedown and submission over Herrig. Jandiroba is much more submission over ground & pound, but she will soften opponents up with big hammerfists & elbows. She is extremely heavy on top & has a very pressure passing methodical top game. She is one of the best Jiu-Jitsu players in the UFC woman’s divisions. It’s an interesting clash because Jandiroba favors more position over submission & off her back when she fought Carla Esparza, she didn’t seem as strong. Esparza was able to take her down quite a few times. She had good double legs she landed on Jandiroba along with catching her kicks & bringing her down. Jandiroba needs to avoid getting put on her back against Dern. Jandiroba has 13 submissions.
This is the best BJJ matchup we can get in WMMA. Both ladies are excellent on the ground and I hope we see a lot of scrambles in this one to see who the better grappler is. I would give Dern the edge on the feet, but I would give Jandiroba the wrestling edge and I think she will be the one in top control more often than not on the mat. We could see a sub from the bottom from either lady, but the grappling is the big question mark for me and at the current line I think it has to be dog or pass. I think these ladies might be too good to submit so I will take this to go all 3 rounds and I see Jandiroba winning with takedowns and top control time.
Either of these ladies could break the slate with a grappling heavy, submission victory. I just don’t see a submission happening and Vegas is slightly favoring this fight to go all 3-rounds at -120. I don’t see me having much of this fight in my lineups because I don’t think there will be a lot of advances or a finish from either side, and if there is any striking on the ground, I doubt they count as significant. If this is a striking fight, I don’t see how either scores well, so this is mostly a fade for me with Jandiroba being my preferred side of the two. She has an easier path to the optimal lineup at her price tag and I think she is the better wrestler of the two.
Winner – Virna Jandiroba via Unanimous Decision
Daniel Pineda $8,300 vs Cub Swanson $7,900
Daniel Pineda
Age: 35
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: 4oz Fight Club
From: Texas
UFC Record: 4-4
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-0-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -155
Daniel Pineda has looked nothing short of sensational recently. He has mowed through his last seven opponents, including an upset TKO over Herbert Burns in his UFC return. That has been his thing throughout his career. Pineda has won all 27 of his fights via finish. Pineda is a super experienced guy. Pineda is 35 years old so every fight for him is important. He knows any loss will really set him back a lot. Pineda doesn’t have the best striking. He is scrappy & powerful. Pineda will try to make the cage small & work leg kicks & big power hooks. Pineda will throw some straights down the middle, but not often. Pineda likes to throw a lot of kicks. He will throw wild spinning and high kicks, because he has no fear of getting taken down. He uses his striking mostly to get inside for the takedowns, but he has power if he lands clean. Pineda is a wrestler at heart and can get sloppy and look uncomfortable on the feet sometimes. He can get wide with his punches and throw kicks that get him countered. When he gets tired, he can get pot shotted & outnumbered from the outside. Pineda does have an iron chin historically. He has only been put down by strikes one time in over 40 fights. Pineda is very dangerous in the opening round. Seven of Pineda’s 9 KO/TKO’s happened in round one.
Daniel Pineda is a very strong grappler. He is super physical for the division and just manhandles some guys. Pineda has very good level changes, and a sick double leg. Pineda is very good at getting the tight waist in the clinch, circling to the back & jumping on it from standing or suplexing his opponent. Pineda has a knack of just forcing grappling exchanges. If you watch almost any recent fight he has, you will see him throw a wild high kick or spinning kick & get taken down off it or fall to his back. From there he goes to work looking for sweeps and trying to find a way to get top position. Once Pineda gets in top position, he is super aggressive. He looks to get into dominant positions and rain down ground & pound until his opponents give him the submission. Pineda likes to get to the mount where he will look to setup triangles. He has good back takes, and rear naked chokes. Pineda early on is super hard to hold down, and excellent at reversing position. Pineda was able to stand up from under a great grinder in Jeremy Kennedy multiple times who is a good grappler. He was ultimately able to snatch up the neck when Kennedy went for a double and submitted Kennedy with a guillotine. Pineda out grappled another black belt in his subsequent fight, making Herbert Burns quit. He landed a lot of heavy ground & pound, tired Burns out and finished him with elbows in the crucifix position. Pineda has multiple leg lock finishes as well. Pineda can start to accept being on his back as fights progress. He will throw spins on the feet that off balance him and let fighters get on top. Pineda has been submitted six times as well. Those were all in the beginning of his career, and he hasn’t been submitted since 2010. Pineda’s cardio isn’t very good. He slows down in the third round and is 0-5 in decisions.
Cub Swanson
Age: 37
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: UFC Gym Costa Mesa
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 11-7
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +135
Cub Swanson is making his return after a lengthy layoff. Swanson suffered a torn ACL in his quintet grappling match vs Jake Shields. That put Swanson on the shelf for a little over a year. That was unfortunate because Swanson was coming off a great performance over Kron Gracie. Previous to that Swanson had lost four fights in a row and is definitely at the end of the line. Swanson is trying to get a few more wins and end his career on his terms. Swanson is a range striker with good boxing & kicking skills. He has a very nice jab. He will throw a jab, slip his head off center line & then follow with a big, overhand right. He has great movement & is always switching stances & giving different looks at range. He likes to use a lot of lateral movement & walk opponents into combinations. He is good at throwing a left hook to switch to southpaw & circle off the cage. He likes to walk opponents into big, looping hooks or overhands from both sides & will mix in head kicks after those shots. He will throw himself out of balance with punches at times but is brilliant at using that to spring right into a kick. He has strong uppercuts in close range. When he lands a shot, he is great at feinting with it to keep opponents thinking when it’s going to come again. Swanson will also attack the body with straight punches & big kicks when he’s in southpaw. He smashed the body of Kron Gracie in his last match. When Swanson is in the pocket after he throws, if opponents return right away he is there to be countered. Renato Moicano was able to catch him as he tried to crash the distance with long range shots, eventually dropping him & taking him out. I don’t think he has the same speed, explosion, or even durability he once had. He still is very durable though. Swanson has still only been finished by strikes one time in his career. He has 11 KO/TKO’s himself, but none since 2013.
Cub Swanson has always struggled with grappling over his career. He has had problems with takedown defense & submission defense. Swanson won’t really go for many takedowns himself. He can sometimes shoot double legs from range, and counter with hip toss takedowns in the clinch. He can be reversed when going for the throw & ending up on his back. His takedown defense has improved. He hasn’t been taken down much in recent fights and was able to keep it on the feet with Frankie Edgar in the rematch. Swanson was caught in a standing guillotine against Brian Ortega and dropped & rear naked choked against Renato Moicano recently. Swanson is a black belt himself but has been submitted 7 times. Swanson isn’t awful off his back though, and the fighters that have finished him by submission are legends or beasts. Every fighter besides Moicano who has finished Swanson has either won or fought for a UFC title. When he’s taken down, he will attack with submissions, but mostly just to stand up. Swanson only has 2 submissions in his career & none in the UFC.
I was impressed by both these guys’ last performances and this should be a fun fight. I see this being close on the feet with Swanson being the one landing more volume but Pineda being the one throwing with more power and landing the harder shots. I think Pineda is more likely to look to get this fight to the mat as well and I think he can have more success there in top control and possibly get a submission. I would give a very slight edge to Pineda in the fight, but the -155 line indicates he wins this matchup more than 60% of the time and that seems too high to me. For that reason, I will take Cub to squeak out a close decision.
This is a fight we should be targeting pretty heavily. Both guys can throw volume, and this could be a brawl. I like Cub to be the one throwing more output and I do favor him if this fight goes the distance. Any win from Cub probably scores 10x or more than his $7.9k price tag and he does have 4 wins with over 100 DK points. Pineda is in play as well because he has 27 wins in his career and all 27 are finishes. I think he is the one with more power, more likely to get a submission, and I would think he is the one looking to get this fight to the mat. I will load up on both sides of this fight and I am not even against an all-in approach with only 10 fights on the card. Cub is my preferred play of the two though because he is an underdog, and I am picking him to win.
Winner – Cub Swanson via Unanimous Decision
Ciryl Gane $9,200 vs Junior Dos Santos $7,000
Ciryl Gane
Age: 30
Height: 6’4
Weight: 249
Reach: 83”
Gym: MMA Factory
From: France
UFC Record: 3-0
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -440
Cyril Gane is not your typical HW. He has excellent movement, switches stances, and is very fast & fluid. He does hold his hands down, but he’s light on his feet bouncing in & out, & extremely hard to hit. He has great eyes & sees shots coming. Gane is 6’5 with an 83” reach & uses it very well. He has a nasty jab. He will snap the head back of his opponents with the jab & it comes very fast. He will follow the jab with nasty straights to the head & body. He will throw the jab, switch stances & rip the straight punch to the body from both stances fluidly. He slips punches effortlessly & will use his slips to create new angles for shots. He has barely gotten hit in the fights I’ve seen, while lighting his opponents up. He has a nasty left hook & right uppercut. He will throw hard leg & oblique kicks. Gane will throw occasional body & head kicks but is mostly a puncher. He does have nasty front knees to the body that look devastating. When he gets opponents moving backwards, he will mix in spinning kicks & spinning backfists. Gane so far in his career has been able to pressure, land shots, back his opponents up, make them miss easily, counter & take them out. When he gets fighters hurt, he has great composure & picks his shots or puts on a barrage until he gets the finish. Gane gets very creative when he gets opponents backed up against the cage. He will throw double punches, spinning backfists, jump knees and is very dynamic. Gane has 2 KO/TKO’s. I haven’t seen Gane tagged or how he reacts to that, but he has great footwork and is hard to hit clean.
Cyril Gane earned a submission victories in his first two UFC fights. Gane is taller than most opponents so he is effective in the clinch. He has a nice Muay Thai plum and will get double underhooks when opponents get too aggressive on the feet. Gane was able to use the double underhooks to push his last opponent to the cage & get a body lock takedown. Gane catches kicks well & uses that to get takedowns. When he took top position in his last match, he quickly finished the fight with an arm triangle. Gane is very aggressive with ground & pound. He throws the legs away & moves into side control well. Gane has good front chokes. He dropped back for a last second heel hook in his last match, getting the finish. He has three submissions in his five victories. Gane is very cool, calm & collected & showed good cardio into round two. He doesn’t waste a lot of energy & is very fluid, so I doubt he will gas unless he’s forced out of his comfort zone.
Junior Dos Santos
Age: 36
Height: 6’4
Weight: 238
Reach: 77”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 16-6
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +350
Junior Dos Santos is one of the best HWs of all time. He has beaten fighters such as Stipe Miocic, Cain Velasquez, Fabricio Werdum, and Shane Carwin. He is a great boxer, and very fast with his hand speed for a HW. He has a nasty jab and will attack the body with it regularly. I see his jab being an integral part to his win here if he gets it. He does a great job of working off his jab after establishing it. After he bloodied Rothwell’s face, he began feinting the jab, and throwing overhand right, right & left hooks. He has a great counter left hook, and his counter punching makes it hard for fighters to be aggressive with Dos Santos. Dos Santos has nasty, low leg kicks, he hurt the leg of Miocic prior to being finished in his title fight, and I think he will utilize those in this fight. His footwork has always been an issue, he doesn’t have great lateral movement and fighters are able to push him to the cage. When he gets stuck against the cage, he doesn’t react well and can get hit clean or taken down. Dos Santos has been better in his last two fights of using his jab and more lateral movement, but that is still an issue for him. Dos Santos is extremely dangerous and has huge power. He has 14 KO/TKO’s and has finished some of the best HWs of all time. He has taken a lot of damage and his chin is questionable at this point. He has been finished 6 times by KO/TKO, and his last three losses have come this way.
Junior Dos Santos is a good grappler, and I think he may try to use that here early. We don’t usually see him go for many takedowns, but he has shown good blast double legs and can shoot singles, push his opponents to the cage and then look for a takedown from there. I feel he may try to take Gane down early and drain some of his gas tank by controlling him on the mat. Defensively, Dos Santos has great takedown defense, and is very hard to hold down. I don’t see that being an issue in this match, as I don’t expect Gane to shoot much if at all. Dos Santos has had much more experience in five round fights, and he can go all 3 rounds comfortably. He has only 1 submission in his career and been submitted one time.
JDS is one of my favorite fighters of all time, but he just isn’t the same guy anymore. Gane could be a future champion in this division within the next couple years and this seems like a matchup to build him up by knocking out a former champ. Skill wise, JDS can still win this fight. He can box and wrestle his way to a decision, or even get a knockout. He just doesn’t have the power he used to, and he is nowhere near as durable as he once was. I think Gane ends up knocking him out at some point in this fight but the ML is too wide for me so I would lean towards a TKO prop if looking to get action on him this week.
Gane is going to be a core play for me this weekend because he is the favorite I am most confident in, and I think he gets a KO. I do think he will need that KO to be on the optimal lineup at $9.2k so he isn’t an all-in play, but he will be in more than half of my lineups. JDS is in play too because he could get a KO, and if this goes to a decision, he is live to win. He is also cheap and will be pretty low owned. I am cool with some JDS exposure but more so as a hedge for me.
Winner – Cyril Gane via 1st round (T)KO
Kevin Holland $8,200 vs Jacare Souza $8,000
Kevin Holland
Age: 28
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 81”
Gym: Travis Lutter BJJ
From: Texas
UFC Record: 7-2
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +110
Kevin Holland has had a phenomenal 2020. He has gone 4-0 with 3 finishes & significantly raised his profile. Holland is now getting a matchup against a legend on the main card of a PPV. If Holland can take out a guy like Jacare Souza in style, he will be in contention for fighter of the year. Kevin Holland is a dynamic athlete with a great frame for the division. He does a good job of staying long. He has a nice jab, good one-twos and his straight-right hand is accurate. He has a nice, check left hook. He will throw long hooks & slaps as well. He will throw jabs & straight-right hands to the body. He lunges in with a lot of his punches & is fast in & out. He can leave his chin high with his hands down. He will also lean back at times & use that tall man type defense. He is very good with his kicks. He has nice leg kicks. He will attack with inside/outside leg kicks, and oblique kicks to the knees. He has a very good lead leg. He will throw a lot of lead leg, hook kicks to the body & head. He has nice round kicks and heavy, rear leg, front kicks to the body. He will throw a front kick to a straight-right hand combination. He did a great job of targeting the body of John Phillips with front kicks, hurting him multiple times. When he gets pressured, he will open up with jump knees. He will mix in lead elbows in close range. He is very good at keeping a high guard & rolling with shots in close range. He will let his opponents hit his guard & then try to time elbows & shots in between their combos. It is a bit dangerous because he isn’t moving & there is always the chance the right shot slips through the guard and hurts him. His striking & the knockout was a thing of beauty in his last fight. Overall, he is excellent at fighting long & is an awkward puzzle to solve. He can allow himself to get backed up against the cage & become more defensive than offensive if an opponent has power. He will also throw shots like little jabs, or non-power shots when he is too close to his opponent and gets countered with bigger shots. He does have a great chin & will talk to opponents and get confident off taking their shots. After he gets hit, he can get emotional, and walk forward with his hands down. He definitely is at his best when he is feinting with the lead leg and using it to setup his punches & going forward himself. He has 9 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Kevin Holland is a good grappler. He is a black belt under Dean Lister. He has solid body locks, and good G&P. He was able to get two nice double legs in his last match, but that was against a fighter with no grappling. Overall, he doesn’t look to go for takedowns much or to work in the clinch. He did get a slam knockout in his last fight. He will throw the occasional clinch elbow, or knee. He will look to get standing guillotines. He will also go for flying armbars & triangles. On top, he will throw hard punches standing in his opponent’s guard due to his length and can land elbows. He will look to use his length to pass into dominant positions & and get the mount or back. He was able to get a rear naked choke in his last win. He is dangerous with submissions and has a nasty guillotine, good triangles and leg locks. He will sweep with omaplatas. He will attack with kimuras. He is active on top or off his back. Holland’s takedown defense is terrible. He is taken down in clinch or with wrestling shots far too easily. He does have the ability to get out of deep submissions & scrambles well. Holland in his last fight was actually dominating the striking and winning on the ground but he gassed out. He has 6 submissions & only been submitted one time.
Ronaldo Souza
Age: 41
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 72”
Gym: Fusion Xcel Performance
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-5
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -130
The legend Jacare Souza is making his return to MW after a one fight stint at 205. Souza was unsuccessful in his attempt to jump into the title picture at LHW losing his main event fight to Jan Blachowicz in a lackluster split decision. Souza is 41 years old, but you can never count out someone like him, and he does seem motivated. On the feet, Jacare will slowly walk his opponent down and doesn’t use a lot of footwork or lateral movement. He likes to really sit down on his right hook and put a lot of power into it. He will lunge into hooks to close the distance and get the clinch. He will rip to the body with big shots & really attacked the body of Chris Weidman effectively. He will throw front kicks to the body to a left hand or a right hook. He has powerful kicks and even if he lands on the guard he can stun anyone. He knocked Derek Brunson out with a head kick. He is not the fastest guy on the feet, and that can be exploited. In his fight with Weidman, he did an excellent job of bringing very heavy pressure even after getting hurt and throwing his all into his shots. He obviously maintained his power & landed a brutal shot that knocked out Weidman late in round 3. Against Jack Hermansson, he really struggled with the speed & movement and looked a step behind the whole fight. He has a good chin, but he has taken a ton of damage. Jacare has been finished by strikes three times. He has seven knockouts himself.
Jacare is one of the best Jiu-Jitsu fighters in MMA history and actually a pretty strong wrestler. He has strong double legs, especially against the cage and he does a good job of setting it up with his overhand right. He likes to get in the clinch against the cage, and he is very strong there. He has nice trips and good judo throws. In his last match, he got caught unable to adjust. He was able to get Jan against the fence, but couldn’t do much there, and still never changed his game plan. Jacare has good takedown defense himself, but it isn’t tested very much as fighters are hesitant to go to the ground with him. Souza has one of the best top games in the sport. He has phenomenal passing ability and will move through opponents’ guards like butter. He likes to move to half guard where he will look for arm triangles and has good control before moving to side control where he has a nasty kimura. He has great back takes and very good back control. If he gets on top, his opponents are usually not getting up. Souza has 14 submissions in his career.
This is a big step up for Holland, but Souza is 41 years old now and clearly on the decline. This is a close fight on the feet, but I do give the edge to Holland. He is the taller guy with a 9” reach advantage and he should be the one throwing more volume. Both guys are capable of getting a knockout and they are both solid on the ground. I do give the grappling edge to Souza though and Holland is not very hard to take down. It’s hard to trust Souza to go for takedowns though because he has 0 in his last 3 fights and he hasn’t landed more than 1 since 2014. I am going to lean Holland here, but he is a hard guy to trust with your money.
This is one of the 3 fights I won’t be getting much exposure to. I think this is a slower paced fight that goes all 3-rounds, and I don’t see either guy scoring well in that case. If either guy gets a finish, then they can end up on the optimal, but I don’t see how either guy scores 100 without a finish. This will mostly be a fade for me but if I am making 150 lineups, I might end up with 5-10% of both sides because I could see a Holland KO and I can also see a Jacare submission.
Winner – Kevin Holland via Split Decision
Rafael Fiziev $8,400 vs Renato Moicano $7,800
Rafael Fiziev
Age: 27
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Kyrgyzstan
UFC Record: 2-1
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -160
Rafael Fiziev dominated Marc Diakiese in his last match, and thus is getting a big step up in competition. Fiziev will face Renato Moicano in an intriguing LW scrap. Fiziev is looking to make good on the hype he had when he entered the UFC. If he defeats Moicano, you have to throw him in there with a top guy next time. Fiziev is very light on his feet and has great distance control. He has nice leg kicks, and heavy body & head kicks. He has a very nice straight-right hand & a devastating left hook. Fiziev has a very nice counter left & right hook moving backwards. He will slip & return with a left hook, straight or overhand right. He was destroying the body of Diakiese in his last fight with hooks. Fiziev has nasty lead elbows. His ability to slip & rip is elite & he is famous for avoiding head kicks, like he is in the matrix. In his last loss, he was caught cold with a spinning back kick that dropped him & he was finished with G&P. Fiziev will throw nice round & question mark kicks to the head himself. He will throw nice spinning backfists. He has nice flying knees. He has a head kick, body kick, and flying knee KO. He will mix head kicks & flying knees into combinations very well. He doesn’t tend to throw in combination much, unless he has an opponent hurt or on the back foot. He will slowly break opponents down to the legs & body throughout the fight. If he can keep fights standing, he is going to be trouble for a ton of UFC guys. Fiziev does get a little bit wide with his hooks at times & can just stand in front of opponents and be caught sleeping. His defense in boxing range isn’t the greatest. He has 5 KO/TKO’s wins & one TKO loss in his MMA career.
Rafael Fiziev is strong in the clinch. He digs nice underhooks & will throw hard knees & elbows to the body & head. He will grab the plum clinch & throw knees as well. Fiziev will throw nice shots off the break. He did hit a nice trip takedown in his last fight. In his fight in Titan, he did drop an opponent with a leg kick, and controlled him in top position. In his last fight, he got several takedowns as well in the clinch. Fiziev didn’t pass guard, but he was able to posture up & land some big elbows. He does have one career rear naked choke. I do think his fast twitch muscles, footwork, and counters will make it hard for fighters to get in on his legs. His takedown defense looked very good in his last couple fights. He was doing a good job of making White pay for the takedown attempts with knees. He is very experienced in fighting in combat sports, but in MMA is only 8-1. This is a big step up in competition for Fiziev. Fiziev did get tired in the third round of his fight with Alex White & took some unnecessary punches. The same thing happened in his match with Diakiese.
Renato Moicano
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 6-3
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +140
Renato Moicano put the LW division on notice in his last match. He snapped his two-fight loss streak by submitting Damir Hadzovic in less than one minute. Moicano is a guy with some recent losses that dropped his stock but can’t be slept on. Renato has some high-level wins in the octagon. He has defeated fighters such as Zubaira Tukhugov, Jeremy Stephens & Calvin Kattar. Beating Rafael Fiziev will prove going to LW was a good decision & he can mix it up with the top fifteen guys. Moicano is a very technical fighter. On the feet, Moicano can be low volume, but he is sharp and has heavy hands. Moicano has a nasty jab & one-two. He has dropped multiple opponents with the jab. Moicano doesn’t utilize a lot of movement. He stands in front of opponents, picking at them with the jab & low kicks. Moicano throws heavy, low kicks. Moicano wants fighters to open up so he can slip & counter with his cross or lead hook, right hook or lead hook, overhand right combination. Moicano will try to land in between opponents’ combinations with sharp, straight shots. Moicano has good uppercut counters as well. After Moicano lands some hard, low kicks, he will start to go to the body & head with them. Moicano isn’t a one-shot striker and relies more on volume. Jeremy Stephens was able to land some good low kicks, and Moicano after he gets clipped hard he seems to get much more timid and defensive. Obviously, a few guys have caught him wary and knocked him out now. He has never earned a KO/TKO in his career. He has a questionable chin and has been finished by strikes twice.
Moicano is a black belt, and very good on the ground. He is excellent at striking from the clinch. He has nasty knees to the body & great Muay Thai plum elbows. He has strong body lock takedowns, and showed excellent guard passing against Cub Swanson. He was able to move directly into mount and has heavy top pressure. He has great floating ability and will quickly take the back and look for RNCs. He got a quick one against Hadzovic. He has good single leg takedowns & reactive double legs. He shot an ill-advised takedown into a guillotine in round 3 against Ortega, because he seemed tired and didn’t like the forward pressure on the feet. He has great takedown defense, but I doubt this fight hits the ground unless someone gets dropped. He has 7 submissions and has only been submitted once.
This is a great matchup, and I am high on both guys. Fiziev is a great striker and he is the more dangerous and durable striker here. He does strike at a high pace as well, but the volume edge on the feet should go to Moicano. Moicano is the better grappler though and that is going to be his safest and best path to a victory here. Moicano can keep this fight close on the feet and he can use takedowns and grappling to win rounds. He can also lock up a submission if he is able to get takedowns. This is a hard one to pick but I think it is pretty close to 50/50 which leads me to taking the underdog.
I will be high on both sides of this fight on DraftKings but Moicano is my preferred play of the two. I like the volume from Moicano while this fight is on the feet and I think he has a big edge if he can get it to the mat. I think he can get a 1st round submission as well and end up on the optimal. I like him in all formats but more so in GPPs. I do like Fiziev as well because I think he can get a KO in any round and he is live for 100+ with that in any round because I think this will be a higher paced fight. I want this fight in more than half of my lineups but Moicano is closer to a core play for me because he is the underdog.
Winner – Renato Moicano by 2nd round Submission
Tony Ferguson $8,600 vs Charles Oliveira $7,600
Tony Ferguson
Age: 36
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 76”
Gym: Team El Cucuy
From: California
UFC Record: 15-2
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -165
Tony Ferguson is a monster and he is relentless. He goes up to big bear, creates his own training camp and he wants it. He trains like a savage going on 6 mile runs at 1 am and having unbelievable work ethic and dedication. He is an action fighter and gets in wars for the fans. He had won 12 straight UFC fights with 9 finishes prior to the Justin fight. He is extremely well-rounded. He usually strikes until his opponent goes for a desperate shot and will catch them in a choke or just knock them out. He is very long and uses that very well with forward pressure. He will enter with long uppercuts and straight punches, front kicks to the body, hard, inside leg kicks, jabs and he just throws so much variety and volume and breaks fighters down. His jab is nasty, and he really bloodies his opponents face up with them. When he lands, he will follow with the two and then get really funky with unorthodox combinations. He has footwork like no one else in MMA history and will switch stances constantly. He loves to land a long range shot orthodox then switch and crash southpaw throwing lead uppercuts and hooks. His head is always moving, and he will literally start dancing and spin and just really look like he’s in the matrix in there. In the pocket, he is very quick and has great hand speed and power. He can knock fighters out with one shot but is mostly an accumulation striker. He will square up when he comes forward at times and it can get him hit but it also makes him dangerous from both sides. He has some of the best lead elbows in the UFC and throws them long and slashing to cut opponents open. He cuts open a lot of guys he fights. He has relentless pressure and when he feels fighters slowing down, he will stay right in their face and finish them. He has great knees as well. He tends to start a bit slow and then wear on his opponent and pick it up and start to slowly but surely make it a dominant performance. Usually mid-way through round 2 you see the demeanor of his opponents change and they become extremely defensive and going backwards. He is a warrior and has a phenomenal chin to go with an iron will. You will need to kill him to get him to stop coming after you. I feel his confidence is something that is extremely unique with him. He will throw anything & has no fear. He is like a Nick Diaz in that sense, where he will just try more things than his opponents are willing to do. He is always looking to do damage, and due to that he takes some, but unless his opponent takes him out, he’s recovering & coming back. He keeps his right hand low and is susceptible to the left hook. That became the money punch for Gaethje. He can sometimes throw leg kicks without setting them up and get caught and hurt, he got dropped by Kevin Lee that way. Gaethje gave him a very bad beating showing holes in his boxing and Tony has to prove he’s bounced back from that in this fight. Ferguson is more of a volume fighter, but he has 15 career knockouts. He has been finished by strikes one time.
Ferguson not only is a dangerous striker, but a phenomenal submission grappler. He is a 2-time college wrestling national champion and possesses some of the best Jiu-Jitsu in the UFC. He locks in darce chokes or guillotines from standing position and will snap opponents down and finish the choke. His long arms allow him to have one of the best darces in MMA history. He is very hard to take down, and I would be shocked if Oliveira was able to take & hold Ferguson down unless Ferguson wants to stay there. He will do crazy things such as rolling for leg locks in the middle of the fight. If a fighter takes him down, he is incredible off his back. He is a 10th planet black belt and he will lock his opponent up in high guard or rubber guard and land hard cutting elbows to the head while looking for armbars and triangles at all times. He does an amazing job of getting wrist control and landing elbows off his back. He will attack legs to get sweeps, he also has a solid get-up game. He will never give up or panic on the ground and is always calm and trying to find his way through it. Ferguson can get hurt & survive on his back whenever he wants to if he isn’t out cold. Tony has 8 submissions in his career and has been submitted just one time.
Charles Oliveira
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Chute Boxe Diego Lima
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 18-7
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: +145
Charles Oliveira is a well-rounded fighter with good stand up skills. He is long for the division & likes to work behind a front kick to the body & straight punches on the feet. He is light on his feet and has good, outside leg kicks. He has a nice uppercut to overhand right, right hook combination. He has a stinging & accurate straight-right hand. He has a good check left hook. He lands nasty lead elbows that really rock opponents. He likes to throw step-in knees to the body & flying knees to the body & head. He has good spinning back kicks to the body & head, and he will throw jumping front kicks to the body. He will throw spinning backfists as well. He will throw round kicks to the head. He keeps a very high guard and stands tall which leaves him susceptible to body shots. He has been hurt to the body by Donald Cerrone & Anthony Pettis. Oliveira has 8 KO/TKO’s and has definitely leveled up his striking. He has a good chin, and decent durability, but he has shown quit before and has been KO/TKO’d 4 times.
Oliveira is the most dangerous submission artist in UFC history with a UFC record of 14 career submissions. Oliveira is a strong wrestler and will even pull guard to get the fight to the mat. He has excellent duck unders into the clinch and will get double underhooks and dump his opponents. He has nasty knees in the clinch, and he likes to get the Muay Thai plum land a couple knees and jump on a guillotine, darce, or anaconda. He is deceptively strong & can muscle fighters in the clinch. He is good at circling to the back and getting the standing rear naked choke or getting his hooks in and pulling his opponent into back mount. His rear naked chokes are excellent & he has an unreal squeeze. When he gets his arm under that chin his opponents are usually tapping within seconds. He has great reactive double legs, and when he gets on top he has phenomenal guard passes. He will move into mount where he will posture up and land elbows to force opponents to give their back. If he can’t get takedowns, he will attempt single legs & then pull guard. In guard he has super-fast hips and is extremely dangerous with triangles & armbars. He has great leg locks as well and does a good job of using them to move into top position. He tends to get too aggressive at times against other elite BJJ fighters and he has been submitted a few times. He has 17 career submissions & has been submitted 3 times.
I love this fight! I am a bit biased on this though because I pretty much always pick Oliveira. I said he was going to be the champ one day the first time I saw him fight and I think he can beat anybody in the world, so it’s hard to pick against him, especially as an underdog. Ferguson is the better striker here and he should have the better pace, cardio, and durability. Oliveira is solid on the feet but his edge in this fight is going to be on the mat. I think Oliveira is the best submission artist in the UFC and if he can get this fight to the mat, I think he can tap Ferguson out. I do think the only way Oliveira wins is by submission though so I would take the submission prop for a better line. I do think Ferguson wins this fight more than he loses it though, so I don’t love the value for Oliveira on the ML, but I will stick with my guy and pick him to get a sub.
All-in. This fight will be in 100% of my lineups and I am not even against stacking it in GPPs since there are only 10 fights. Do Bronx is going to be my preferred play though because he is one of my favorite underdogs and I don’t see how he wins and doesn’t score well. This will be a high paced fight and his best path to victory is by submission. He is a core play for me this week because I will have him in more than half my lineups. I probably go about 65/35 on this fight, and if Tony wins, he will probably be on the optimal as well. He can land a bunch of strikes and he can get takedowns of his own. I think a KO is his most likely way of winning though and that will score well in any round. Load up on this fight in GPPs.
Winner – Charles Oliveira via 2nd round Submission
Deiveson Figueiredo $9,000 vs Brandon Moreno $7,200
Deiveson Figueiredo
Age: 32
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Team Figueiredo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-1
Last Fought: 3 Weeks
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -300
Deiveson Figueiredo is looking to add to his legacy being the first UFC champion to defend his title twice in less than one month. He had another flawless performance in his last fight. Figueiredo is probably the biggest FW on the roster with the most one punch knockout power. On the feet, Figueiredo is basic, but has one punch knockout power, and is a big presence. He cuts the cage off well, will switch stances, and almost always controls the center of the cage. He likes to stand in front of opponent’s feint, & touch opponents to pull counter. He uses a wide, hands down stance & is very athletic & explosive. Figueiredo has a very nice jab. He will skip into range with one-twos and has heavy low kicks. He has a powerful straight & overhand right. Figueiredo likes to kind of shuffle into range & then explode into a left or right hook or overhand. He will attack the body with straights & hooks that have big power. He has very nice uppercuts. The issue in Figueiredo’s striking is he loads up a lot, and if opponents are smart, use movement & don’t engage in fire fights with him, he isn’t the fastest. Due to the fact he doesn’t throw in combination, he can be low volume and not land much, if fighters can avoid the big shots. He will sit in the pocket & trade wild hooks as shown vs Pantoja. He has started to implement a lot more standing elbows on the feet that are very dangerous & cut opponents open. Figueiredo will also get frustrated & start lunging in & using big movements when he can get inside. This makes it easier to time takedowns, along with catching him with counter shots. In his last couple matches, he was definitely more composed. Figueiredo definitely packs a punch with 9 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes.
Deiveson Figueiredo has struggled with grapplers over his career but rectified that in his last two performances. He did get a victory by the skin of his teeth vs Jarred Brooks, where he was taken down many times. In his loss to Jussier Formiga, Formiga was able to take him down to cement rounds. Figueiredo just didn’t have the greatest takedown defense or get-up game. That’s a different story now, but he was dumped with double legs vs Brooks, and taken down with singles & body locks vs Formiga. Off his back, he will try to play the guard game, control posture, and does land elbows & punches off his back. He did cut Formiga with an elbow on bottom. He will eventually look to get the feet on the hips & push his opponent off, but he can be much too complacent off his back. In his fights with both Formiga & Brooks, they had over a full round of top control. Deiveson does have a dangerous guillotine he pulled off again in his last fight. Deiveson was able to deny a couple takedowns from Joe B. He was able to also attack with an armbar in round one that was very close. He defended the takedowns of Perez and immediately jumped for a leg attack then transitioned to the guillotine and ended the fight. You can tell he is totally calm and at home in the octagon now. Offensively, Figueiredo isn’t a bad wrestler. He is very big for the division, and gets in on double underhooks nicely, using the position to land trip takedowns. He landed a nice blast double in his fight vs Pantoja. He wasn’t able to control in top position very long before Pantoja scrambled back to his feet. I don’t see him being able to control Brandon Moreno in top position. In this fight I think Figueiredo has to stay composed. He has to just try to cut Moreno off, not get frustrated by the movement & catch him as he’s coming in. Figueiredo needs to use his jab, straight-right hand & uppercut, and maybe even look for flying knees. If he gets taken down, he needs to work back to his feet as quickly as possible. Figueiredo has 7 submissions & has never been submitted.
Brandon Moreno
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 70”
Gym: Entram Gym
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 6-2-1
Last Fought: 3 Weeks
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +250
Arguably the best Mexican fighter in the UFC Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno will be back in action this Saturday. Moreno has been on fire recently not having lost in over two years. Moreno is undefeated in his second run in the UFC & has taken out 3 guys that are in the top ten. He wanted his opportunity at the belt his last time out, so I’m sure he is a little pissed off and ready to make a statement. Moreno is getting the opportunity he’s always wanted here. Moreno’s striking has really leveled up. Moreno has tighter defense & is improving with his boxing. He will throw a jab to the body & head. He has a very nice left hook. He will throw a left hook, straight hand combination. He will throw a left hook to the body to the head combination as well. Moreno has a very dangerous overhand right & right uppercut. He has big power & will hurt opponents with one shot. He throws a lot of long, looping shots that he can land from long range, but tightens up the hooks & uppercuts in the pocket. He will attack the left hook to the body a lot & then change it up to an uppercut that fighters don’t see coming. Moreno is still a leaner & overextends on his punches. He can get caught with counter shots inside, especially against sharp strikers. He has really struggled with sharp, straight shots, especially the jab. Moreno doesn’t throw nearly as many kicks as he used to, but still has a dangerous head kick. He has dropped two opponents with head kicks in the UFC including his last opponent. He will mix the head kick into combinations & times it well. Moreno is getting the chance to defeat a style he hasn’t had success with in the past. Moreno is a bit sporadic with his output. He can circle & be very low volume, and then just explode. Against more technical guys that style doesn’t always work. Moreno is durable never being finished by strikes. Moreno has three KO/TKO’s but is dangerous on the feet.
Brandon Moreno is an elite grappler. His scrambling ability is top notch, and he has proved that in his last two fights. His ability to create scrambles off his back that he’s able to take advantage of is incredible. Moreno has gotten better at his timing on his double legs. He will get in on the legs, circle to the back, and look for throws or trips. Moreno has good top control & ground & pound. He has nice guard passing skills & back takes. He will get the body triangle & is very good at sliding the arm under the neck. Moreno has strong takedown defense & dangerous attacks to counter the attempts. He will use front knees, head kicks, & uppercuts to try to discourage level changes & hurt opponents shooting in. If opponents do take Moreno down, he is immediately attacking with triangles, armbars & sweeps. He is extremely hard to hold down & catches opponents in the scrambles. Moreno has been competing in combat Jiu-Jitsu & obviously that’s the strongest facet of his game. His rear naked choke is his most dangerous submission. In his last fight he finished with ground & pound after a lot of scrambles and an unfortunate injury to Brandon Royval. Moreno has 10 career submissions. Moreno was submitted by Alexandre Pantoja on TUF. Moreno being Mexican has excellent cardio & is live & looking for the finish at all times.
These guys just fought on the same card 3 weeks ago and both got 1st round finishes and are make a quick turnaround here. Neither took any damage so the weight cuts are really the only worry on the quick turnaround. Figueiredo is the most dangerous 125 pounder we have seen. 17 of his 20 wins are finishes and 11 of those are in round 1. I am going to pick him here as well because I think the most likely outcome is that he gets a knockout or a submission. In my opinion the best way to bet him would be ITD though because if this goes to a decision, I could see Moreno being the busier fighter and maybe getting his hand raised so I wouldn’t lay -300 on the champ and this is dog or pass for me on the ML.
I like both sides of this fight but Figueiredo is probably who I end up with more of in my lineups. More so because I like a lot of underdogs on this card and if he wins it is most likely by finish. He has a -165 ITD line which is nice, and he can win by TKO or submission. I think you can fade this fight as well and hope he wins a decision, but this fight is 90% owned as a whole. I could see him winning a decision and not even scoring 10x. Same with a finish after round 1 from him. Moreno should end up on the optimal lineup with any win because this is 5-rounds. I do think he is live to win a decision here, so I want some Moreno lineups as well and possibly overweight. My sneaky move will probably be to go underweight to both sides and hope for a later finish from Deiveson. You can stack this fight in cash games, or even GPPs because of only 10 fights and maybe even less by the time the card starts. I would prefer to stack the co-main event in all formats though personally and I would think both guys make 30-40% or so of my lineups.
Winner – Deiveson Figueiredo via 2nd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on Twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on Twitter at @BigMarley3.
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